[THREAD] Defensive Analysis - what’s gone wrong at Brighton?

#BHAFC

Average possession (league ranking):
- 17/18: 45.1% (=16th)
- 18/19: 44.1% (17th)
- 19/20: 54.2% (=5th)

Pressing rate (league ranking):
- 17/18: 15.57 (20th)
- 18/19: 13.63 (14th)
- 19/20: 8.82 (6th)

Pressing more than ever, just badly.

( @WhoScored/ @UnderstatXG)

#BHAFC https://twitter.com/albionanalytics/status/1236739829918023680

xGA p90 (league ranking):
- 17/18: 1.4 (13th)
- 18/19: 1.64 (14th)
- 19/20: 1.54 (=14th)

This season’s xGA seems fine comparatively, though we’ve had more possession + conceded 4.62 fewer goals than expected - our biggest xGA-GA difference in the PL.

( @UnderstatXG)

#BHAFC

Maty Ryan is a key contributor to this defensive ‘overperformance’, as his actual goals conceded is considerably lower than his expected goals conceded - a thread on him is coming soon.

If you want to see a more in-depth thread looking at our xG and xGA

#BHAFC https://twitter.com/albionanalytics/status/1236301004376879104

On top of that, we’ve also benefit from our opponents being more wasteful this season than they have been previously

https://twitter.com/albionanalytics/status/1234867423100252161?s=21

#BHAFC

Here’s the biggest defensive issues:

• Conceding counter attacks at much higher rates than the past two seasons, with over 10% more leading to shots

• Opponents are converting over 50% of their entries into our penalty area to shots, this figure was 1/4 under Hughton

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Most worryingly, we’ve gone from being one of the harder teams in the league to break down, to the third easiest.

Teams now average just 250 passes per xG created against us, with this figure previously being over 300 in the past 2 seasons.

( @Wyscout/ @UnderstatXG)

#BHAFC

This season’s side is top 10 for most frequently pressing sides since our first season in 17/18.

However, we’re also now top 10 for fewest passes needed to generate 1xG against - meaning we’re really easy to break down.

The more we’ve pressed, the more we’ve conceded.

#BHAFC

So what’s caused these changes?

A higher possession system needs more players in advanced locations, both horizontally and vertically. Stretching the pitch requires space between players and units, but this leaves more gaps between us when we lose the ball.

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A prime example is Watford’s goal in our 1-1 draw.

We lose the ball with only the defensive line (3 players) back behind the ball.

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This forces Dunk and Duffy to drop as the last line of defence.

Engaging/pressing and trying to tackle is risky - Doucoure has controlled possession and could easily bypass them with a slide ball in behind or a take on.

#BHAFC

We’re attacking centrally more than ever before (23% of attacks).

That’s a %, too, so the actual volume will be significantly higher than the past 2 seasons, given our increased attack volume.

central attacks = opportunity to lose the ball in dangerous areas.

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All explains, why, from the eye test, we’ve looked so vulnerable in defensive transition this season.

Players are given distances too great to recover in time which is leaving us numerically weak and underloaded, especially in dangerous, central areas.

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So how can we solve this issue? Our tackle success rate isn’t bad - a team average of 61.2% is the 5th best in the league.

Though, with the sheer volume of counters we concede, we’ve been dribbled past the 11th most times (329)

( @fbref)

#BHAFC

A possible, but particularly unpopular scenario, would be tactical fouls.

We’ve committed just 288 fouls this season, the 6th fewest in the league. Whilst considered unsportsmanlike by many, City have proved it a useful and successful tool. It’s an option.

#BHAFC

If anyone is interested in a more tactical, rather than analytical, analysis of us defensively, take a look at a thread from earlier this season

#BHAFC https://twitter.com/albionanalytics/status/1167485719847284737