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As if there wasn’t enough bad news out there, this story from @robantle and @CochraneCBC is one of the more depressing things I’ve read
It is also utterly unsurprising to anybody who has pays attention to Newfoundland politics #cdnpoli #newfoundland
1/14 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/newfoundland-labrador-oil-pandemic-covid-coronavirus-dwight-ball-1.5516620?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar
It is also utterly unsurprising to anybody who has pays attention to Newfoundland politics #cdnpoli #newfoundland
1/14 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/newfoundland-labrador-oil-pandemic-covid-coronavirus-dwight-ball-1.5516620?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar
The proximate cause of this crisis of course, the cratering of world oil prices. A 2/3rds drop from the projected price of your primary revenue generator will do that to you
#COVIDー19 shutting down NFLD’s tourism industry also plays a role. But the real problems go deeper
2/14
#COVIDー19 shutting down NFLD’s tourism industry also plays a role. But the real problems go deeper
2/14
Other provinces fret about the coming ‘demographic bomb’ that will see public finances strained to pay for skyrocketing health care costs of an aging population
Long before the current crisis the Newfoundland demographic bomb had already exploded
https://www.statista.com/statistics/444816/canada-median-age-of-resident-population-by-province/
3/14
Long before the current crisis the Newfoundland demographic bomb had already exploded
https://www.statista.com/statistics/444816/canada-median-age-of-resident-population-by-province/
3/14
So yes, the deck has been stacked against Newfoundland largely due to forces outside its control & the province will at some point r require a large federal bailout in order to provide even basic services
But a first step should be looking in at what we CAN control...
4/14
But a first step should be looking in at what we CAN control...
4/14
...take the size of Newfoundland’s public sector relative to the private sector is also out of control. 29% of workers in Newfoundland are in the public sector. The overall Canadian average is just 20%
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1410028802
5/14
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=1410028802
5/14
At the risk of invoking the dreaded ‘R’ word, the province must also reckon with the fact that too many rural communities have beocme economically non-viable & unaffordable to serve.
We cannot indulge in romanticism any more. This has to change.
6/14 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/newfoundland-outports-relocation/article36275746/
We cannot indulge in romanticism any more. This has to change.
6/14 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/newfoundland-outports-relocation/article36275746/
Ironically, the only recent Premier to even attempt to right-size Newfoundland’s toxic finances was @DwightBallNL
Unfortunately he was beaten back by the fairy tales woven by the usual suspects: the protest mongering activists & public sector unions
7/14 https://theindependent.ca/2017/01/12/the-ball-governments-attack-on-n-l-society/
Unfortunately he was beaten back by the fairy tales woven by the usual suspects: the protest mongering activists & public sector unions
7/14 https://theindependent.ca/2017/01/12/the-ball-governments-attack-on-n-l-society/
Now I’m a proud Newfoundlander but I’m also self-aware when it comes to a toxic part of our political culture - the corrosive habit of blaming ‘Canada’ for our problems
We even launched a Royal Commission to channel this passive-aggressive grievance
https://www.gov.nl.ca/publicat/royalcomm/intro.pdf
8/14
We even launched a Royal Commission to channel this passive-aggressive grievance
https://www.gov.nl.ca/publicat/royalcomm/intro.pdf
8/14
Later, we elected a power-abusing, narcissistic, self-dealing proto-Trump named Danny Williams who used this grievance culture to build a personality cult that included convincing Newfoundlanders that our problems were all Stephen Harper’s fault
9/14
https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/search/label/cult%20of%20personality?m=0
9/14
https://bondpapers.blogspot.com/search/label/cult%20of%20personality?m=0
In fairness Williams was about more than just thuggery & jingoism - he also was a profligate & reckless fiscal manager who squandered NFLD’s boom times, rather than prepare for an inevitable downturn
He must share in the blame for this predicament
10/14 https://www.fraserinstitute.org/blogs/government-spending-the-problem-in-newfoundland-and-labrador
He must share in the blame for this predicament
10/14 https://www.fraserinstitute.org/blogs/government-spending-the-problem-in-newfoundland-and-labrador
Newfoundland can’t be allowed to default
As I understand it a belief that Ottawa’s strong fiscal position backstops weaker provincial balance sheets helps struggling provinces raise money in capital markets
Shattering that belief & letting a province fail would be ruinous
11/14
As I understand it a belief that Ottawa’s strong fiscal position backstops weaker provincial balance sheets helps struggling provinces raise money in capital markets
Shattering that belief & letting a province fail would be ruinous
11/14
The politics of a bailout will surely suck. In fact, any intervention by the federal government to save Newfoundland will create new strains on an already fracturing confederation
Other are also hurting. What will an out-of-work Albertan think about the outlay required?
12/14
Other are also hurting. What will an out-of-work Albertan think about the outlay required?
12/14
I love my homeland. I will be proud to call myself a Newfoundlander until the day I die
But I will not forgive a political class that has become far too comfortable ignoring fiscal realities while blaming outsiders for the consequences of their own decisions
13/14
But I will not forgive a political class that has become far too comfortable ignoring fiscal realities while blaming outsiders for the consequences of their own decisions
13/14
We have a public health & economic crisis in front of us. This, rightly, will occupy policy makers for some time
But when the crisis ends, the world will be different. Newfoundland will be different. I hope all of us ensure that the changes ahead are for the better
14/14
But when the crisis ends, the world will be different. Newfoundland will be different. I hope all of us ensure that the changes ahead are for the better
14/14
