#COVID-19 would disproportionately impact:-
a) people in the informal economy, who doesn’t have social security, job insurance /or guarantee (i.e. Kenya’s informal laborers account for 84% of the total workforce, and I don’t think #Ethiopia’s would be any different (?)). (1/n) https://twitter.com/hiddaw/status/1245665092118740993

b) elderly and people with serious underlying health issues (for obvious reasons),

c) people at the lower wealth quintile vis-à-vis multidimensional poverty. In #Africa, there’s high prevalence of malnutrition, anemia, malaria, HIV/AIDs, TB etc. (2/n)

I see farmers, as a relatively “safe” –as at least they’re eying the next cropping cycle. They’ll find a way to mitigate/ manage the shock, unless it transforms into a stress (i.e. persists for the next 6-9 months).
*Vulnerable farmers under PSNP, are not in this equation. (3/n)

2. Which sector is likely to suffer the most?
a) Obviously, service & hospitality sector is already hit the hardest: aviation, travel, tourism...

b) the whole list of consumer Cos. (food, toiletries..) & their suppliers that operate on low working-capital edge: to June/Aug (4/n)

c) export industry –flower, textile, (already feeling the pinch) and others as a result of the global demand slowdown

d) Transportation and other sectors too ... loading (if the least preferred containment approach embarks upon, & if #COVID19 persists say post September). (5/n)

3. The aviation sector is severely impacted. Protecting our big strategic assets @flyethiopian is tantamount to both safeguarding jobs and saving future revenue potential continuing to flow into state coffers, if not preserving the image of the national pride. (6/n)

4. Measures taken by the government –encouraging. The PM’s appeal to G20 to advance #Africa $150B in emergency funds is also very encouraging. I see the 15B liquidity as a right measure, as it’ll provide debt relief (for MSMEs) & additional loans to their customers in need. (7/n)

But above all –the plea for a moratorium on debt repayment (debt freeze) to official creditors, including China is the most important one. I see this as an important lifeline, as either new money/ debt write-offs couldn’t come fast. This can only give us a breathing space. (8/n)

More should be done like 100% tax waiver (eg. 3 months) for those earning a gross monthly income of <$240 (eg. Kenya’s measure), reduction of income tax rate (pay-as-you-earn), vitalizing the national food reserve, emergency fund (?),... are some measures worth considering. (9/n)

Readjusting our economic growth prospect and clearly articulating the would be revenue under-performance for the next 3 – 6 months is important to guide and / or inform future policy directives. (10/n)

5. Private sector can continue playing their role supporting gov’t measures from shifting into overdrive to help battle the #COVID19 as seen recently in the IPs –producing masks, sanitizer -to– partaking their fair share of the brunt by keeping employees on their payroll...(11/n)

They should keep and innovate on service deliveries. In the long term, I expect a growing influence of tech: from retail business (including delivery) - to - entertainment: recent 3D prints, etc. by young Ethiopian innovators will soon have a ratchet effect in the economy. (12/n)

Solution: aggressive physical distancing and frequent hand-washing will prevail as the most effective and affordable interventions for Africa. Lockdown is the least preferred approach.

Hence, a multilayered and synergistic approach is imperative. My two cents.

CC @BerhaneSamson