This chart is a portrait of disaster. I have spent the last twenty years studying the labor market and have never seen anything like it. Unemployment insurance claims for the last two weeks are mind-blowing. 1/

To the naked eye, the last two observations look like they are in a vertical line because the x-axis covers more than 50 years and the increase in the last two weeks was so extreme. The next chart will show just the last year so you can see more detail. 2/

This chart shows initial unemployment insurance claims over the last year. The increase in the last two weeks boggles the mind. 3/

Initial unemployment insurance claims jumped from 211,000 in the week ending March 7th to 6.6 MILLION in the week ending March 28th. That’s more than a 3000% increase in three weeks. What an unbelievable upending of the labor market. 4/

This shows not-seasonally-adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims, to confirm that seasonal adjustment factors aren’t what’s driving the other-worldliness of the last two weeks. They aren’t. 5/

Today's UI claims, as extraordinary as they are, leave out many who are out of work due to the virus, including independent contractors, those who don’t have long enough work histories, those who had to quit work to care for a child whose school closed, and on and on. 6/

The good news is that one of the most effective parts of the CARES Act is a $250 billion expansion of UI, including an extension of coverage to many of those who fall through the gaping holes in our regular UI system. 7/

This chart shows initial unemployment insurance claims over the last 50+ years, with recession-shading. What we are going through now dwarfs anything we’ve ever seen, including the worst weeks of the great recession. 8/

Today, as you read about millions being laid off, remember it didn’t have to be like this. Due to failed leadership, we TWICE missed the chance to avert widespread job loss. Now we must act to avoid greater damage. 9/ https://www.epi.org/blog/policymakers-twice-missed-the-chance-to-avert-widespread-job-loss-now-they-should-act-to-avoid-more-layoffs/

In the last two weeks, nearly 10 million have filed for UI—and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Based on new GDP forecasts, we project nearly TWENTY million workers will be laid off or furloughed by July. That *includes* the impact of the CARES Act. 10/

Actually our prediction of nearly 20 million workers laid off or furloughed by July is based on new GDP forecasts that include the impact of the CARES Act AND assume that Congress will pass another relief package focused on aid to states. Unbelievable. 11/

Given the extraordinary deterioration of the labor market in a matter of weeks, federal policymakers will absolutely need to come back and provide more desperately needed relief, and more support for the recovery once the lockdown is over. 12/