Read on Twitter
1. I've spent weeks, now months, warning about the #COVID19 pandemic. We're in exactly the situation I was desperate for us to avoid. The virus is freely spreading in the community, we've lost sight of transmission chains, our NHS front line is stressed & unprotected.
2. It's a scandal the government wasn't better informed and prepared. If we'd shut down early, we'd have minimised the number of cases and had a better chance of using the test, trace, isolate process used in other countries to slow or stop the epidemic.
3. @CMO_England and his team gambled the fate of the nation on a completely unproven & reckless herd immunity policy, using flu pandemic modelling as the basis for their decisions. #COVID19 isn't flu. There is increasing evidence it spreads very differently.
4. And when serology studies finally show how many people had sub-clinical infections, I believe CMO will be shocked by the low percentage. Study after study shows close contacts of COVID-19 patients are not infected at the rate UK models assume. This mirrors MERS & SARS findings
5. And we shouldn't even be having this discussion. The British government shouldn't have gambled on a theoretical national experiment. It should have implemented practical measures that have been proven time and time again to control epidemics in the real world.
6. Curtail social activities that lead to spread. Test, trace, isolate. Keep the case numbers as low as possible to make the job easier. When the epidemic is under control, social restrictions can be relaxed on the understanding that local lockdowns might be needed...
7. ...to control small outbreaks. I'm tired of seeing 'glimmers of hope'. The latest is from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. This model is simplistic, the analysis is poor. It wouldn't stand up in a corporate environment. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8175765/Lockdown-reducing-number-people-infected-coronavirus.html
8. As long as the Tube is packed, medics are in unprotected close contact with patients, schools are open, prisons, military units etc. & flights are arriving, the virus isn't cornered. Delusion might be comforting, but it isn't going to solve the problem https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1245263263396478981?s=20
9. Spain and Italy, countries that have implemented similar lockdowns, continue to see a rise in cases. The speed of transmission has slowed, but the curve has not turned. Lack of PPE, lack of ventilators, lack of testing, thanks to government ineptitude, we're...
10. ...facing a public health emergency unprepared. For what its worth, if the government wants to dig its way out of this increasingly dire situation, it needs to do the following things:
11. First, @CMO_England, @uksciencechief, Dr Jenny Harries, and @MattHancock need to be fired. Anyone who ignored established epidemic response to advocate mass events during an epidemic aren't a danger etc., or that herd immunity is a viable policy needs to go.
12. Their advice has led to deaths that could have been prevented. @MattHancock has failed to ensure the NHS had adequate protection, testing or medical equipment to safeguard front line medics and patients. https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1245139291359117319?s=20
13. @BorisJohnson should replace these people with a team that has a wartime mentality. We've lost control of the situation and need to take measures on a number of fronts to regain the upper hand. This isn't about glimmers of hope or false dawns.
14. This is about decisive, rapid action that builds towards a long-term strategy. We have a minimum of 12 - 18 months until a vaccine. How does the government plan to get the population out of lockdown? How will it safeguard health & the economy once restrictions are lifted?
15. Gambling on so-called herd immunity is extremely risky, and based on current science, IMHO is likely to fail. We need a better strategy. I've suggested some basic measures here: https://freemarketconservatives.org/were-at-war-with-an-invisible-enemy-heres-how-we-fight-it/
16. If we can get the basics right, there might be scope for an even more sophisticated response. https://freemarketconservatives.org/want-to-solve-the-covid-19-problem-work-harder-and-smarter/
17. I warned we were running out of time over a month ago. We're out of time. This is now about damage limitation and steering the UK away from the brink of long & deep health crisis and associated recession.
