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US Coronavirus Update, Wed, April 1, 2020
• grim news on deaths, even as the curve does bend
Fatalities First
• Total US covid-19 deaths, Wed, April 1: 5,116
• Increase in the last 24 hours: 1,216 (+31%)
--> Deaths above 1,000 in 1 day for 1st time
--> 51 deaths / hour
• grim news on deaths, even as the curve does bend
Fatalities First
• Total US covid-19 deaths, Wed, April 1: 5,116
• Increase in the last 24 hours: 1,216 (+31%)
--> Deaths above 1,000 in 1 day for 1st time
--> 51 deaths / hour
2/ US Fatalities, some perspective
• Sat, Feb 29: US death #1
• Thu, Mar 26: US death 1,000 (26 days)
• Fri, Mar 28: US death 2,000 (2 days)
• Sun, Mar 30: US death 3,000 (2 days)
• Wed, Apri 1: Us death 5,000 (2 days)
• Sat, Feb 29: US death #1
• Thu, Mar 26: US death 1,000 (26 days)
• Fri, Mar 28: US death 2,000 (2 days)
• Sun, Mar 30: US death 3,000 (2 days)
• Wed, Apri 1: Us death 5,000 (2 days)
3/ It took...
--> 26 days to go from 1 death to 1,000 deaths
--> 4 days to add the next 2,000 deaths
--> 2 days to add the 2,000 days after that
The pace of deaths is rising.
The pace at which deaths is rising is also rising.
--> 26 days to go from 1 death to 1,000 deaths
--> 4 days to add the next 2,000 deaths
--> 2 days to add the 2,000 days after that
The pace of deaths is rising.
The pace at which deaths is rising is also rising.
4/ Percent increase in deaths not bending yet.
Here, 10 days of death increases, starting 3/23:
Mon: 34%
Tue: 41%
Wed: 20%
Thu: 27%
Fri: 32%
Sat: 36%
Sun: 15%
Mon: 22%
Tue: 30%
Wed: 31%
–7 of 10 at 27% or higher
–2 of 10 at 20% and 22%
At 24%, deaths double in 3 days
Here, 10 days of death increases, starting 3/23:
Mon: 34%
Tue: 41%
Wed: 20%
Thu: 27%
Fri: 32%
Sat: 36%
Sun: 15%
Mon: 22%
Tue: 30%
Wed: 31%
–7 of 10 at 27% or higher
–2 of 10 at 20% and 22%
At 24%, deaths double in 3 days
5/ One week ago — just last Wednesday — total deaths were 1,201.
This Wednesday, we added 1,216 in 24 hours.
These deaths were determined two to four weeks ago.
It takes 10 to 14 days to show you are sick.
Many people are sick for 10 to 14 days before getting well or dying.
This Wednesday, we added 1,216 in 24 hours.
These deaths were determined two to four weeks ago.
It takes 10 to 14 days to show you are sick.
Many people are sick for 10 to 14 days before getting well or dying.
6/ We now have so many deaths, if the rate of increase falls to 20% a day (only 2 days in last 10 were that low) — we will have 1,000 dead Americans or more every day.
Last week, it seemed impossible to imagine a day we were like Italy or Spain, adding 800 deaths a day.
Last week, it seemed impossible to imagine a day we were like Italy or Spain, adding 800 deaths a day.
7/ Could we be adding 5,000 deaths a day (our total now) by 10 days from now?
Yes. That's what the math and the growth show.
Possible, Friday, April 10: ~ 40,000 deaths. +6,000 deaths a day.
Yes. That's what the math and the growth show.
Possible, Friday, April 10: ~ 40,000 deaths. +6,000 deaths a day.
8/ Case Update now — this is the good news.
• Total US Coronavirus Cases, Wed, April 1: 215,417
• Increase in last 24 hours: 26,382 (+14%)
--> 3 days in a row, incr over 20,000
--> 2 days in a row, incr over 25,000
--> But it has taken 5 days to double cases (since Friday)
• Total US Coronavirus Cases, Wed, April 1: 215,417
• Increase in last 24 hours: 26,382 (+14%)
--> 3 days in a row, incr over 20,000
--> 2 days in a row, incr over 25,000
--> But it has taken 5 days to double cases (since Friday)
9/ We are stretching out the pace at which we add new cases — they were doubling every 3 days for many weeks.
Now, slowly, doubling just every 5 days.
If the pace had *not* slowed, we would have 60,000 more sick people right now.
That slowing is powerful and real.
Now, slowly, doubling just every 5 days.
If the pace had *not* slowed, we would have 60,000 more sick people right now.
That slowing is powerful and real.
10/ Below, rate of increase in new confirmed cases, starting last Mon, 3/23:
Mon: 33%
Tue: 25%
Wed: 20%
Thu: 27%
Fri: 22%
Sat: 21%
Sun: 15%
Mon: 16%
Tue: 15%
Wed: 14%
Notice sharp break after Sat, Mar 28.
Last week, every day 20% or over
This week, no day over 16%
Mon: 33%
Tue: 25%
Wed: 20%
Thu: 27%
Fri: 22%
Sat: 21%
Sun: 15%
Mon: 16%
Tue: 15%
Wed: 14%
Notice sharp break after Sat, Mar 28.
Last week, every day 20% or over
This week, no day over 16%
11/ A reminder: The total number of cases is now so large — 215,000 — we will have a flood of new cases every day, even as the percent increase really does flatten.
(That's why we didn't want to get to 200,000 cases.)
But stay-home is working!
It's right there in the numbers.
(That's why we didn't want to get to 200,000 cases.)
But stay-home is working!
It's right there in the numbers.
12/ US death rate is rising — but it's very rough.
Simple death rate: deaths / cases
That is: 2.4% today
It's not very accurate — because tens of thousands of cases are not diagnosed. People are not that sick, and we don't have the tests (6 weeks in) to test them.
Simple death rate: deaths / cases
That is: 2.4% today
It's not very accurate — because tens of thousands of cases are not diagnosed. People are not that sick, and we don't have the tests (6 weeks in) to test them.
13/ What we can say is that, of the people we are testing and confirming as sick with covid-19, about 2.4% of those will die.
If you add 25,000 new cases a day, 600 of those people will eventually die.
That's the key:
Deaths today were determined the week of March 16.
If you add 25,000 new cases a day, 600 of those people will eventually die.
That's the key:
Deaths today were determined the week of March 16.
14/ Today's cases will determine deaths in 10 days to 2 weeks from now — April 11 to April 16.
We are building in 600 deaths a day — minimum — weeks from now. Probably many more.
That's why Anthony Fauci warned that we were in for a really discouraging 2 or 3 more weeks.
We are building in 600 deaths a day — minimum — weeks from now. Probably many more.
That's why Anthony Fauci warned that we were in for a really discouraging 2 or 3 more weeks.
15/ But back to the fact that new cases are growing much more slowly:
If we had 60,000 more cases today, we would be building in many many more very sick people and deaths a week to 10 days from now.
Stretching out cases means fewer people in the hospital at once. That's key.
If we had 60,000 more cases today, we would be building in many many more very sick people and deaths a week to 10 days from now.
Stretching out cases means fewer people in the hospital at once. That's key.
16/ Staying home is driving everyone a little batty.
And that's true if you don't have fundamental worries — about ability to pay rent and buy food.
Staying home with financial pressure is frustrating, maybe even infuriating.
You could work, but you aren't allowed to.
And that's true if you don't have fundamental worries — about ability to pay rent and buy food.
Staying home with financial pressure is frustrating, maybe even infuriating.
You could work, but you aren't allowed to.
17/ But go back to the rate of increase in new cases (#10 in this thread):
We have dramatically slowed the growth this week.
60,000 Americans not sick right now — a whole stadium full — because we are staying home.
Next week will — we hope — show the same.
We have dramatically slowed the growth this week.
60,000 Americans not sick right now — a whole stadium full — because we are staying home.
Next week will — we hope — show the same.
