This chart shows the range of ICU beds needed in NC under the best case scenario of 100% compliance with stay-at-home order. Under these conditions, at peak infection, we will projected to need as few as 300 and as many as 2,500 ICU beds at peak conditions in early to late April. https://twitter.com/JeffJacksonNC/status/1245433986400337920

So our "best case in the best case" is that this thing peaks in early April and we only ever simultaneously need ~300 ICU beds. Our "worse case in the best case" is that this thing peaks in very late April and we need ~2500 ICU beds all at once.

It is important that the #ncga understands what the green range on this model means. It's not a best case under best conditions versus worst case under worst conditions range. We can't change our behavior to push things higher or lower on this chart.

This model, and the green range of values output from it, assumes we're doing *everything* right and will continue doing so. Under these *best case* conditions, we might need as few as 300 beds or we might need as many as 2,500.

If we don't comply with the stay at home order or we lift the order too early, we will likely need far more than 2,500 beds (I haven't seen a model of this though).

If legislators only focus on the green dotted line, they might greatly underestimate our needs in coming weeks.

So many typos in this thread - many apologies! We need an edit button!