The more I think about this virus, the more worried I become.

It's 2 April 2020 today & I've been at this work from home/self quarantine vigilant state for two months now. And here's what I see how this unfolds. https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1236284952477491203

There is no model for this at the moment that leads us back to normalcy, barring a vaccine or some sort of cocktail of drugs that cure us.

The best I have seen is the German or South Korean or Taiwan model. Taiwan is difficult to replicate as it is an island & can shut itself.

The German model of having a lot of hospital beds/testing/tracing etc limits deaths but requires also stringent measures to limit mobility & some state in Germany in lockdown & even with this supposedly good model German growth to be bad.

South Korea is the same.

We just published a report today tracking mobility & policy & economic activity for Asia (see it if u are a client). So I tracked down South Korea's policy & it's written in the media so you know: A lot of screening, testing, tracing, hospital beds etc. But still, growth not good

Don't have the free falling of activities like China in Feb but there isn't much of a sense of normalcy there either. And they have to have stricter controls recently too.

Even Hong Kong, Taiwan & Singapore models don't work. These are islands & small. 2nd, have u seen HK data?

I'm sure u have, it's horrible. Containment & light suppression don't work for a globalized place like HK for too long (SG too) without feeling like life is being sucked out of it. Because that's what happening to HK airports, hospitality, etc.

And it's a model of corona for us

Hong Kong will run out of hospital beds soon if cases keep rising. Anyway, let me go back to why I worry. I worry because our hope of spring/summer seasonality is fading too as hot places in Southeast Asia get higher numbers lately. And India too. That's worrying for them & us.

Many people spend their time bashing the West response to this virus. But frankly I don't know if there's a good way to deal with this virus. Say we bend the curve after an outbreak, which looks like Italy is doing it. And looks like Spain will & so will the US.

What's next? HK?

As in, are we supposed to be hiding in our apartment, come out for food, hike the peak at night to avoid other humans, and then go on like this until a vaccine is discovered?

Many people'll lose their jobs. Retail sales in HK is being destroyed. So is the transport industry etc.

A news that hit today really saddens me. Intercontinental is laying off all its staff - 750 of them all. This is a major hotel in HK. Prime location. Supposed to withstand it.

Yesterday, my fav local HK retail sent an email that she's closing. I felt sad for her dreams vanished.

So on and so forth. Behind that awful retail sales figure in February, is a dream destroyed. Whoever opened that shop, designed that bag, didn't think there wouldn't be a soul wanting it.

So the models people hail save prevent a spike of deaths but it's not cure. Really isn't.

Everyday I think about how we got here & how we'll get out of it (that's why I rant about the WHO) because now it's pandemic. The only solution is to shut yourself from the world & that's not much of one if you have an economic system to run. So until there's a vaccine. I worry.