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The more I think about this virus, the more worried I become.
It& #39;s 2 April 2020 today & I& #39;ve been at this work from home/self quarantine vigilant state for two months now. And here& #39;s what I see how this unfolds. https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1236284952477491203">https://twitter.com/Trinhnomi...
It& #39;s 2 April 2020 today & I& #39;ve been at this work from home/self quarantine vigilant state for two months now. And here& #39;s what I see how this unfolds. https://twitter.com/Trinhnomics/status/1236284952477491203">https://twitter.com/Trinhnomi...
There is no model for this at the moment that leads us back to normalcy, barring a vaccine or some sort of cocktail of drugs that cure us.
The best I have seen is the German or South Korean or Taiwan model. Taiwan is difficult to replicate as it is an island & can shut itself.
The best I have seen is the German or South Korean or Taiwan model. Taiwan is difficult to replicate as it is an island & can shut itself.
The German model of having a lot of hospital beds/testing/tracing etc limits deaths but requires also stringent measures to limit mobility & some state in Germany in lockdown & even with this supposedly good model German growth to be bad.
South Korea is the same.
South Korea is the same.
We just published a report today tracking mobility & policy & economic activity for Asia (see it if u are a client). So I tracked down South Korea& #39;s policy & it& #39;s written in the media so you know: A lot of screening, testing, tracing, hospital beds etc. But still, growth not good
Don& #39;t have the free falling of activities like China in Feb but there isn& #39;t much of a sense of normalcy there either. And they have to have stricter controls recently too.
Even Hong Kong, Taiwan & Singapore models don& #39;t work. These are islands & small. 2nd, have u seen HK data?
Even Hong Kong, Taiwan & Singapore models don& #39;t work. These are islands & small. 2nd, have u seen HK data?
I& #39;m sure u have, it& #39;s horrible. Containment & light suppression don& #39;t work for a globalized place like HK for too long (SG too) without feeling like life is being sucked out of it. Because that& #39;s what happening to HK airports, hospitality, etc.
And it& #39;s a model of corona for us
And it& #39;s a model of corona for us
Hong Kong will run out of hospital beds soon if cases keep rising. Anyway, let me go back to why I worry. I worry because our hope of spring/summer seasonality is fading too as hot places in Southeast Asia get higher numbers lately. And India too. That& #39;s worrying for them & us.
Many people spend their time bashing the West response to this virus. But frankly I don& #39;t know if there& #39;s a good way to deal with this virus. Say we bend the curve after an outbreak, which looks like Italy is doing it. And looks like Spain will & so will the US.
What& #39;s next? HK?
What& #39;s next? HK?
As in, are we supposed to be hiding in our apartment, come out for food, hike the peak at night to avoid other humans, and then go on like this until a vaccine is discovered?
Many people& #39;ll lose their jobs. Retail sales in HK is being destroyed. So is the transport industry etc.
Many people& #39;ll lose their jobs. Retail sales in HK is being destroyed. So is the transport industry etc.
A news that hit today really saddens me. Intercontinental is laying off all its staff - 750 of them all. This is a major hotel in HK. Prime location. Supposed to withstand it.
Yesterday, my fav local HK retail sent an email that she& #39;s closing. I felt sad for her dreams vanished.
Yesterday, my fav local HK retail sent an email that she& #39;s closing. I felt sad for her dreams vanished.
So on and so forth. Behind that awful retail sales figure in February, is a dream destroyed. Whoever opened that shop, designed that bag, didn& #39;t think there wouldn& #39;t be a soul wanting it.
So the models people hail save prevent a spike of deaths but it& #39;s not cure. Really isn& #39;t.
So the models people hail save prevent a spike of deaths but it& #39;s not cure. Really isn& #39;t.
Everyday I think about how we got here & how we& #39;ll get out of it (that& #39;s why I rant about the WHO) because now it& #39;s pandemic. The only solution is to shut yourself from the world & that& #39;s not much of one if you have an economic system to run. So until there& #39;s a vaccine. I worry.
