There are three conditions that determine whether a crisis leads to lasting change. 1) The existence of a latent desire and capacity for change which precedes the crisis. 2) The crisis reinforces that latency and also sees responses that prefigure change…..

3) Political alliances, social innovations and policy proposals that take the potential for change and embed it in society. Compare for example the AIDS/HIV crisis and the 2008 Financial crisis....

In former case there was a latent momentum for gay and lesbian rights from the community itself and reflecting wider social liberalism. The crisis itself forced the community and public authorities to make a choice between cover up and blame or openness and action...

Eventually the latter course was decisively chosen. Then, as the crisis unfolded, a clear agenda for action emerged including better treatment, changed behaviours and ultimately action against homophobia and discrimination.

In 2008 there was less latent demand for change. The crisis led to contested interpretations of blame and lessons to be leant. Then, as the immediate crisis receded, there was insufficient political convergence and policy development to win support for a progressive response...

Critical to this failure was the split of progressives between the radical left of Occupy and the 1% movement and social democrat parties who tried in vain to respond while maintaining a grip on establishment power

2008 in the face of the disasters wrought by global finance many people said it was the left’s moment, but instead the opportunity was seized by nationalist populism. This is why the new Labour leader has a huge opportunity and responsibility..

This crisis too can advance latent progressive desire in areas ranging from working lives to social justice and democratic institutional reform. Again we are seeing aspects of a new and better world being prefigured in social attitudes, common experiences and community practice.

The question is whether a new Labour leadership can build a dynamic alliance of progressive interests, tap into the amazing creativity and good will being shown in so many communities and institutions and turn this into a powerful and credible political and policy platform.

The new Labour leader will still be relatively unknown to the public. For politicians first impressions are very important. We will find out quite soon about a key variable determing whether - this time - progressives grasp the opportunity to build a better country out of tragedy