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Here's a quick analysis that I like to call "the missing billion at the box office", especially as it relates to #StarWars #TheRiseOfSkywalker.
Even though evidence points to Disney reviving "Star Wars" to compete with "Harry Potter", "Potter" still earned ~$1+ billion more.
Even though evidence points to Disney reviving "Star Wars" to compete with "Harry Potter", "Potter" still earned ~$1+ billion more.
My source for the numbers is http://BoxOfficeMojo.com , as well as another source for the Harry Potter film franchise numbers.
I originally analyzed box office numbers in my post analyzing a survey of Reddit's r/StarWars from about a year or so ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/StarWarsCantina/comments/aegixf/a_survey_of_the_star_wars_fandom_an_analysis/
I originally analyzed box office numbers in my post analyzing a survey of Reddit's r/StarWars from about a year or so ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/StarWarsCantina/comments/aegixf/a_survey_of_the_star_wars_fandom_an_analysis/
Keep in mind, folks, that both the OT and PT each got 6 years to film their trilogies, from the release of the first movie onwards. Meanwhile, the ST only got 4 years. Compare TROS's 52% to TPM's 53% on RT, and you have the lowest-ranked SW movie ever made, in critics' eyes.
So...in the end, Disney lost ~$1 billion dollars, compared to Harry Potter, in possible revenue at the box office that they were aiming for. I'd have to calculate earnings vs. cost to make for the movies, excluding the purchase of Lucasfilm itself, but that's a staggering number.
By 'aiming', I mean that they wanted to beat Harry Potter. Think about it...they lost a BILLION dollars in potential profits trying to rush these films out in 4 years, instead of 6.
(Not to say that they would have hit their target, but I think they would have made more $$$.)
(Not to say that they would have hit their target, but I think they would have made more $$$.)
Also, high estimates place the cost of the ST around ~$900 million, rounding down. Subtracting $900 million from $2.1 billion in overall earnings from the ST, we get about $1.2 billion in profits and revenue, not accounting for the costs of reshoots and marketing.
HOWEVER...
HOWEVER...
...Galaxy's Edge at WDW cost at least $1+ billion to make, not counting for the additional billions spent on other GE theme parks and the Star Wars hotel.
Disney just about spent ALL of their profits from the ENTIRE ST...making ONE theme park land. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/01/pictures-inside-disney-parks-billion-dollar-star-wars-galaxys-edge.html
Disney just about spent ALL of their profits from the ENTIRE ST...making ONE theme park land. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/01/pictures-inside-disney-parks-billion-dollar-star-wars-galaxys-edge.html
As a long-time Harry Potter fan, since I joined the "Star Wars" fandom in 2017, I've kept an eye on numbers. I also wrote an article, the first of its kind, about 1-2 years ago on just how much Disney's failure to buy "Harry Potter" shaped "Star Wars". https://www.reddit.com/r/StarWars/comments/8q727m/how_disneys_failure_to_buy_harry_potter_and_their/
The topic of "Harry Potter vs. Star Wars" was also subsequently covered by a few YouTubers on their channels, including @JennyENicholson in her video on Galaxy's Edge here:
I'd have to do a deeper dive into "Harry Potter vs. Star Wars" in terms of box office earnings trajectory - or "legs" - but @reylomyhalo also brought up this valid point regarding TLJ vs. TROS: https://twitter.com/reylomyhalo/status/1245599073333170176
About 6 months ago, I was the one to share reports on SWL of Mike Ballog, Senior Director of Global Marketing at Hasbro, confirming that up to 65-70% of merchandise for "The Rise of Skywalker" would have a delayed release due to "potential spoilers": https://www.reddit.com/r/StarWarsLeaks/comments/dbt2i2/mike_ballog_senior_director_of_global_marketing/
Yet given that Disney is overspending by billions of dollars on its Galaxy's Edge theme parks, and given Bob Iger forgoing his salary, and Bob Chapek taking a 50% pay cut, etc...it's clear that Disney was hemhorraging money, and a lot of it, even before. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-disneys-iger-will-forgo-salary-as-new-ceo-takes-50percent-pay-cut.html
Given this, and many fan questions of, "Where are all the TROS toys that were promised?", I think there is one, clear answer.
Disney realized that TROS vastly underperformed when compared to high expectations, and thus, cancelled most of their planned TROS merchandise releases.
Disney realized that TROS vastly underperformed when compared to high expectations, and thus, cancelled most of their planned TROS merchandise releases.
It's no secret that the toy industry hasn't exactly doing well lately - declining by 4% from 2018 to 2019 - and merchandise has been regarded as to where "Star Wars" truly makes the majority of its money.
Yet a 2018 report showed "Star Wars in decline". https://www.jeditemplearchives.com/2019-01-14-disneys-2018-annual-report-sees-star-wars-in-decline/
Yet a 2018 report showed "Star Wars in decline". https://www.jeditemplearchives.com/2019-01-14-disneys-2018-annual-report-sees-star-wars-in-decline/
In a July 2019 article, @JediTempleArchi stated: "Early Google Trends for TROS tell us that the movie might underperform. Disney certainly needs to rethink their overall approach to everything here."
Even before TLJ, their data shows dwindling interest.
https://www.jeditemplearchives.com/2019-07-01-how-much-money-does-hasbro-still-make-with-star-wars/
Even before TLJ, their data shows dwindling interest.
https://www.jeditemplearchives.com/2019-07-01-how-much-money-does-hasbro-still-make-with-star-wars/
Yet, instead of equating dwindling interest in "Star Wars" toys with waning fan interest, Disney instead continued to dump several billions in investment in the franchise - after the $4 billion spent to buy Lucasfilm in 2012.
Disney is still spending: https://www.axios.com/disney-netflix-content-spending-b7cc36a9-0d4a-495b-a191-01020e099a6e.html
Disney is still spending: https://www.axios.com/disney-netflix-content-spending-b7cc36a9-0d4a-495b-a191-01020e099a6e.html
Journalists have already begun to compare the case of Disney and Star Wars to that of "Jurassic Park", even using the phrase "[they] spared no expense".
Yet, like "Jurassic Park", Disney's out-of-control spending may also spell disaster for the company. https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/29/media/star-wars-land-galaxys-edge-opening/index.html
Yet, like "Jurassic Park", Disney's out-of-control spending may also spell disaster for the company. https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/29/media/star-wars-land-galaxys-edge-opening/index.html
As a final note - I noticed that I forgot to include international numbers, as well as domestic, in some cases. However, as those numbers would still not even begin to break even on what Disney is spending on the Star Wars franchise, it feels like a moot point to include them.
