Hi here is a thread of why you aren't pissed enough at Cabo44 using math and science!

Skip to tweet 7 for the numbers otherwise read on!

Also please share! (1/12)

So let's start by summarizing the events of Cabo44. A bunch of college kids from UT went to Cabo during March 14-22 (spring break). At this time the US hadn't closed it boarders but UT extended spring break and warned of travel. (2/12

When they left on March 14th there was 3.5k cases in the US if they came back on the 22nd there was 44k cases. So a stark jump in cases. Also it been all over the news and UT warned us. So playing dumb isn't gonna cut it. (3/12)

So let's define our assumptions:

•Let's assume that Cabo44 got COVID-19 right as they returned home for simplicity sake.

• Also The R0 value is currently floating between 2-2.5 for corona currently so we will use 2 to give them the benefit of the doubt. (4/12)

Before we begin let's define R0. R0 is the basic reproductive rate which is the expected number of secondary infections arising from a single infected individual during a period of fully susceptible population.

Or simply it's how many people are gonna be infected. (5/12)

R0 is found by multiplying the transmission probability by the number of contacts multiplied by the duration of infectiousness. (6/12)

So let's begin: if patient zero infects 2 people and those 2 people infect another 2 and this goes on indefinitely and eventually infect everyone but we will only do 10 rounds of this.

If we do that with 1 member of Cabo44 we see they infect 2047 people. (7/12)

Now remember that's just 1 member so if we run that same experiment 44 more times and add them up we see that the CABO44 potentially infected 90,112 people!

For reference on how big that is the 2019 UT-OU game had 92,100 in attendance. (8/12)

Now remember we gave them the benefit of the doubt with a R0 of 2.

But honestly it was selfish for them go on that trip so fuck'em.

Let's see how many people they infected with 2.5 as our R0. (9/12)

Again the only thing we changed was that R0 from 2 to 2.5.

*Drumroll*

CABO44 potentially infected more than a million (1,049,041) people.

But how big is that you ask? The city of Austin has a population of 950,254. So pretty huge (10/12)

So remember your fun spring break potentially put a million people at risk.

So quit complaining about cyberbullying cause going on that trip was beyond irresponsible and stay at home for gods sake. (11/12)

Also your Instagram pictures sucked. (12/12)