This is why I think Darren Waller will still be a top 6 TE going into 2020

A thread.

Let’s start by discussing his stat line from 2019.

117 targets (24th)

90 receptions (11th)

1145 yards (12th)

3 touchdowns (Tied 73rd)

Now let’s discuss the Players that can cut into Wallers production.

Hunter Renfrow-

71 targets

49 receptions

605 yards

4 TDs

Foster Moreau-

25 targets

21 receptions

174 yards

5 touchdowns

Tyrell Williams-

64 targets

42 receptions

651 yards

6 touchdowns

Now, the Raiders are expecting to bring in one of the top WRs in the draft. How will that impact Waller compared to Williams or Renfrow?

Most likely it knocks Williams out of WR1, Renfrow remains in the same position and Moreau remains in the same role.

Waller on the other hand, playing the biggest role on the offense, will likely see a reduction in targets (assume 25) a reduction in receptions (assume 15) and a reduction in yards (assume 190).

92 targets

75 receptions

955 yards

And retain the 3 touchdowns

This equals 191.5 PPR points which is TE 6 last season.

Now, it’s only fair to assume a reduction in everything else but an increase in touchdowns is fair since there will be another threat on offense and the offense will probably score more and be in the redzone more often.

Let’s assume he increases to 6 touchdowns, which is an increase of 3.

This brings it up to 212.5. Or TE3 right behind Kittle and Kelce and above Ertz.

I understand that this argument is flawed, but you can keep taking away targets and receptions and he will still be a top 10 TE. Because the positions top players are often injured, are aging, and top heavy, it leads me to believe that Waller will again produce well in 2020.

There are many hypotheticals that go into this. “Who will play QB”, “will Jacobs be more involved”, “who do they draft”, “what would have happened if Williams and Renfrow remained healthy”. The bottom line is this, he’s top TE who is an amazing athlete but just didn’t score.