Rumors have been swirling among my sources about possibility that PCR-based COVID-19 tests have high false negative rate. I haven't reported on it because I couldn't find anything definitive and half the people weren't sure the rumors were true. Now there's some Chinese data ...

And it looks like the false negative rate on the PCR tests could be as high as 30 percent. Remember, this is data from CHINA, so that's not a problem with the CDC test. It's a problem with >tests<.

Me, in my head: "Well, fuck." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/well/live/coronavirus-symptoms-tests-false-negative.html

This is a pretty big problem in the US, where we haven't gotten ahead of the virus on test-and-isolation strategies and antibody tests aren't widely available yet. Meanwhile, people are infectious long before they have reason to believe they're infected (if they ever do). FUN.

Clarification: The test used in China is not same one we use here. Similar technical basis, but probably looking for different genetic fingerprint(s). I'm not sure of the detail there. BUT I'm concerned for us because this makes me trust rumors about US test a little more.