1/ I decided to look back at some of the UK& #39;s National Security Strategy documents from recent years to see if anything stood out about how the a pandemic such as COVID-19 was viewed relative to other national security threats to the UK. Here is a thread with what I found:

2/ The 2015 National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review was very clear about the threat of a pandemic. @David_Cameron & #39;s foreword mentions pandemics as a growing threat to the UK alongside ISIL, Ukraine crisis and cyber attacks https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/478933/52309_Cm_9161_NSS_SD_Review_web_only.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

3/ The 2015 NSS and SDSR proceeds to highlight the threat of pandemics, specifically referring to pandemic influenza as a Tier One riskhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚠️" title="Warning sign" aria-label="Emoji: Warning sign">, adding that "No single nation can act alone on such transnational threats".

4/ The 2015 NSS and SDSR specifically says the UK has a "detailed, robust and comprehensive plans in place and the necessary capacity to deal with infectious diseases, including pandemic influenza and respiratory diseases."
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Eyes">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👀" title="Eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Eyes">

5/ Despite this misplaced confidence about capacity, in 2015 it is clear the UK anticipated something like COVID-19 and understood it to be one of the major threats possible to the UK.

By 2019, the narrative in the UK national security context seemed a bit different:

6/ The 2019 review of the 2015 NSS and SDSR bizarrely does not contain the word "pandemic" once in the whole 59 page document https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❗️" title="Red exclamation mark symbol" aria-label="Emoji: Red exclamation mark symbol">, preferring "epidemic" when talking about global public health. The emphasis in this doc is threat to OTHER countries not UK.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/819613/NSS_and_SDSR_2015_Third_Annual_Report_-_FINAL__2_.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

7/ The question remains why the UK national security and foreign policy world wasn& #39;t as vocal about the relative threat in 2019.
Could have been that in 2015 the Ebola crisis was more on people& #39;s minds. Also in 2019 it was hard for the UK to think beyond Brexit https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇧" title="Flag of United Kingdom" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of United Kingdom">

8/ This thread looks at comparative risk assessment in UK foreign policy, i& #39;m not assessing UK pandemic response capacity

For that, there is the 2018 UK Biological Security Strategy which looks at how UK prepares against threats like pandemic influenza: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/730213/2018_UK_Biological_Security_Strategy.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...