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1. Of the steps that govnt must take during #Covid19inSA, none is more urgent than offsetting the economic shocks for South Africa's most impoverished during lockdown. A thread on some of the proposals that may work (and my @NewFrame_News report below). https://www.newframe.com/the-covid-19-proposals-that-may-save-millions/
2. Incomplete data under changing circumstances means that scientific consensus on coronavirus interventions remains immature. We still know very little. But if the #coronavirus data remains largely untested, the effects of economic shocks on SA households have been well studied.
3. So what do we know? South Africa is exceptionally volatile, economically. Half of the population has no chance of escaping poverty. 13% has only some chance. 14% face a “considerable risk of falling into poverty”. Only 1 in 4 people are stably in the middle or elite classes.
4. In this context, job insecurity – the sort of which is being ramped up by the #Covid19inSA lockdown – is a key determinant of economic vulnerability.
All of this volatility was modelled in a context *before* the likely economic ravages of Covid-19.
All of this volatility was modelled in a context *before* the likely economic ravages of Covid-19.
5. More than 50% of SA lives below the poverty line. The poorest 5.6 million survive on R352 / month. Before #Covid19inSA, 9 million learners received daily meals through the national school nutrition programme. So, the lockdown threatens unprecedented impoverishment and hunger.
6. So far, @PresidencyZA's national command council’s efforts to mitigate this have turned on an increase in the reach of the UIF. Almost one in every two workers in South Africa – 8 million people – do not qualify for this support, however. #Covid_19SA
7. *BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME HOPE* There is set of
encouraging proposals to deal with the increased economic vulnerability due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and target those workers who won't be caught by the UIF safety net. They concern changes to SA's social grants. #Covid_19SA
encouraging proposals to deal with the increased economic vulnerability due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and target those workers who won't be caught by the UIF safety net. They concern changes to SA's social grants. #Covid_19SA
8. One proposal is a special new grant to assist informal workers. Another is an increase to the child support grant, which may drastically mitigate the lockdown’s economic shocks. #Covid19inSA
9. The poorest 10% of South Africans, for instance, will lose up to 45% of their income as a *direct result* of the lockdown. Increasing the child support grant would cut this loss down to below 20%. This is huge. #Covid19inSA
10. Increasing every child support grant by R200 would cost the state R10 billion. Increasing them by R375 would cost R15 billion, and increasing them by R500 would cost R20 billion. #Covid19inSA
11. Minister Lindiwe Zulu told me that, while these proposals have not been brought to the attention of the national command council, "there is no running away from this one. It eventually will come." #Covid19inSA https://www.newframe.com/the-covid-19-proposals-that-may-save-millions/
