THREAD- Its early days but very soon, the scale of the “shock geometry” of Coronavirus on the economy and public finances will need deep analysis. What do we know to date? What will it mean for Wales? How will the pandemic shape the contours of a very different Wales? 1

In terms of the Welsh NHS and Social Care, the huge investment to deal with coronavirus will need to be sustained to deal with the accumulating backlog of canceled operations, offsetting a rise in mental health problems and a sustaining a severely strained workforce. 2

The system was in crisis prior to this. Remember the performance figures before the virus, the strains on A&E, the workforce shortages? Local government preventative services have been savagely cut. There was little resilience in the pre-Covid 19 system. 3

In social care, huge burdens have fallen as the service takes full responsibility for urgent discharge of eligible patients identified by the NHS. With a rapidly aging population & high proportion of looked after children, it is unthinkable to cut resources in these areas. 4

What about the “class of 2020”. What will be the impact of losing a term of schooling particularly on children from poorer families? What about those children who teachers keep an eye on who suffer ACES and may require significant child safeguarding support? 5

In this climate more austerity applied to battered public services is not sustainable. Will the past decade of cuts be replaced with the introduction of a far more equitable system of higher rates of tax particularly for the rich? One thing for sure, we will all pay more tax. 6

The explosion of the Govt's balance sheet in the last two weeks dwarfs anything we saw in 2008. A further £200bn of quantitative easing and huge liquidity & guarantees. With the scale of the intervention, living costs will rise. There may be a surge in inflation/shortages. 7

This impacts the cost of goods & living standards. Spain (badly hit by the virus) is our biggest exporter of food and drink, with a total import value of £1,028,207,497 in six months. We are also heavily reliant on Italian fruit and veg, tomatoes and wine. 8

Domestic production? The absence of seasonal workers from Europe. Concordia, a charity that recruits seasonal labour for the UK, warned that 1/3 of the harvest might waste if a solution is not found. Already £200m of plants are being destroyed with garden centre closures. 9

Will small businesses recover? See the article https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52114414. Corporate Finance Network told the BBC: "We could lose up to a million of them (jobs)in the next month or so. And it will be irreversible which will be catastrophic for the UK economy." 10

What about welfare? Paul Johnson of the IFS is controversially arguing that the govt may need to postpone rise to the national living wage (I disagree). Will those in Wales on Universal Credit really be content to see recent payment rises unwound? 11

There could be positives. More stay at home tourism in a beautiful country, less reliance on the roads as new digital communications apps has taken hold. What about an all-encompassing strategy to tackle climate change in light of lessons learned? 12

A new spirit of self-help and community could emerge. New social capital. “Heroes’ are now Doctors, nurses, social care workers, supermarket staff, cleaners, van drivers rather than pointless B-list celebrities. 13

We need new paradigms. Wales has struggled with productively, health, educational standards over decades. Our Economic output per head has been lower than in most other parts of the UK with high levels of rural depopulation & urban poverty. 14

We face an extended economic freeze of an enormous magnitude that will damage the supply side and will be new territory for policymakers. Business as usual assumptions are dead. What will it mean for the shape and scale of Wales’s large public sector? 15

These structural economic problems are more important than ever. Will we see a V-shaped bounce back recession as GDP falls and rises or are we heading towards an L shaped depression and years of stagnation? 16

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, Defence Sec Robert MacNamara talked about the need to interpret the crisis in "a language, which required a new vocabulary the likes of which the world has never seen". Covid 19 demands this. 17

These crude and incomplete thoughts are the tip of the iceberg. There are so many “known unknowns”. With National Assembly elections next year can I offer best wishes and all the good luck in the world to the current and future Welsh Governments. There are going to need it. 18