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POLL: How many people are #COVID19 infected in the 
today?
This is the most important number in the crisis.
It drives:
- Intensive care load (1-4 weeks)
- Death toll (1-5 weeks)
- Fatality %
- # future infections
- #Lockdown approach.
Intuition development ideas below:
today?This is the most important number in the crisis.
It drives:
- Intensive care load (1-4 weeks)
- Death toll (1-5 weeks)
- Fatality %
- # future infections
- #Lockdown approach.
Intuition development ideas below:
Intuition development:
- Start with deaths to date
- Assume infection fatality rate
- That tells you ~# infections 3 weeks ago
- How many times have they doubled since?
- What % have recovered since?
- So how many infected today?
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
- Start with deaths to date
- Assume infection fatality rate
- That tells you ~# infections 3 weeks ago
- How many times have they doubled since?
- What % have recovered since?
- So how many infected today?
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Threads below include a professional estimate (Imperial) and an amateur one (me).
TL:DR. 2-5m might be infected.
Implies 20-50k deaths in next few weeks even if ICUs not overrun and zero new infections from today! https://twitter.com/JamieWoodhouse/status/1244917380523995137?s=20
TL:DR. 2-5m might be infected.
Implies 20-50k deaths in next few weeks even if ICUs not overrun and zero new infections from today! https://twitter.com/JamieWoodhouse/status/1244917380523995137?s=20
I'm hoping our government knows all this in secret and is responding appropriately.
I don't know why they're not talking openly about it - as we need some calm fear to help us keep hard #Lockdown.
If, as early on, they're still underestimating this - we're in real trouble.
I don't know why they're not talking openly about it - as we need some calm fear to help us keep hard #Lockdown.
If, as early on, they're still underestimating this - we're in real trouble.
Thanks to those rare journalists grappling with this uncertain, but critical estimate.
@TomChivers @EdConwaySky @alexwickham @Ashley_J_Kirk @PaulNuki @AlbertoNardelli @nicholascecil @jburnmurdoch
@TomChivers @EdConwaySky @alexwickham @Ashley_J_Kirk @PaulNuki @AlbertoNardelli @nicholascecil @jburnmurdoch
+ Thanks to the professionals who are trying to work this out.
Government (and the public) need to listen + act fast.
@Imperial_JIDEA @imperialcollege @edge_health_ @georgebatchelor @ChristianMoroy
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf https://www.edgehealth.co.uk/post/covid23march2020
Government (and the public) need to listen + act fast.
@Imperial_JIDEA @imperialcollege @edge_health_ @georgebatchelor @ChristianMoroy
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf https://www.edgehealth.co.uk/post/covid23march2020
How likely is it that the 50% (so far) answering in the thousands...
Aren't taking the #Lockdown quite as seriously as we need to.
We've already "banked" millions of infections and tens of thousands of deaths.
But if infections continue to spread because of weak #Lockdown?
Aren't taking the #Lockdown quite as seriously as we need to.
We've already "banked" millions of infections and tens of thousands of deaths.
But if infections continue to spread because of weak #Lockdown?
Shocking public complacency in responses so far.
When will journos start asking this most important question?
@maitlis @Peston @AndrewMarr9 @bbclaurak @adamboultonSKY @BethRigby @PaulBrandITV @Emmabarnett @mrjamesob @piersmorgan @pippacrerar @guardianheather @GaryGibbonBlog
When will journos start asking this most important question?
@maitlis @Peston @AndrewMarr9 @bbclaurak @adamboultonSKY @BethRigby @PaulBrandITV @Emmabarnett @mrjamesob @piersmorgan @pippacrerar @guardianheather @GaryGibbonBlog
Shocking public complacency in responses so far.
When will journos start asking this most important question?
@carolecadwalla @Otto_English @IanDunt @rowenamason @JamesHockaday_ @alexwickham @NickCohen4 @jennirsl
@tnewtondunn @lewis_goodall @faisalislam @AdamBienkov
When will journos start asking this most important question?
@carolecadwalla @Otto_English @IanDunt @rowenamason @JamesHockaday_ @alexwickham @NickCohen4 @jennirsl
@tnewtondunn @lewis_goodall @faisalislam @AdamBienkov
Given responses so far, here's how wrong I think 70% of the respondents are:
~3.2 million infected. Implies ~32k deaths in next few weeks assuming ICUs not over-run + zero new infections.
1m infected would imply 824 deaths. We've seen ~2,822. https://twitter.com/JamieWoodhouse/status/1245362548200935429?s=20
~3.2 million infected. Implies ~32k deaths in next few weeks assuming ICUs not over-run + zero new infections.
1m infected would imply 824 deaths. We've seen ~2,822. https://twitter.com/JamieWoodhouse/status/1245362548200935429?s=20
