Dear colleagues, fellow academics, and experts of all kinds: Now would be a good time to practice the intellectual virtue of epistemic humility. /1
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/modesty-humility/#Epis

Being an expert involves not only knowing stuff about the world, but also knowing the limits of your knowledge and expertise. It requires both cognitive and meta-cognitive skills. /2

It is, of course, fine and good to have opinions and to express them in public. The point is that true experts express themselves in a way that reflects the degree of confidence they are justified in having in their beliefs. /3

Unfortunately, people who appear as experts often express themselves more confidently than they should. This paper is about economic experts, but the general conclusions carry over to all disciplines. /4 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13501780600566271

Right now, I'm seeing plenty of people – here and elsewhere – expressing themselves with *way* more confidence than is warranted by the evidence. This is a vice. /5

For example, many people talk as though they *know* what approach in the face of the corona virus is optimal. But nobody is yet in a position to know this – not the least because we won't be able to judge until after the outbreak is over and temporary measures lifted. /6

As I said, it is fine and good to have an opinion about the matter, and to express it in public. Some beliefs are better supported by the evidence than others – and we should not hesitate to say that. /7

The point is that experts, unlike charlatans, express themselves in a way that mirrors their limitations. All of us who want to be taken seriously would do well to keep this in mind. /8