THREAD: Mexico appears to have far fewer cases of coronavirus than the U.S. Why?

2/The difference is huge in states on the US-Mexico border. As of Sunday, California reported over 6,200 cases, Baja California, just 23. Arizona had 919 cases; 14 in Sonora. New Mexico 237; Chihuahua, 6.

3/One reason: the virus reached Mexico about a month after it appeared in the US. Another: the govt has done far fewer tests. Mexico has relied more on math models based on sampling and info from health centers around the country.

4/The coronavirus czar, Hugo López-Gatell, acknowledges the confirmed # of cases is far lower than the real #. That’s always true for epidemics, he says. He says the important thing is tracking the virus’ speed and direction -- not the # of cases.

5/Mexico held off on tough measures like closing schools and govt offices until it determined the virus was spreading beyond folks who’d traveled abroad and their immediate contacts (“community transmission”).

6/Why not lock down earlier? Nearly 60% of Mexican workers are in the informal sector. Few have savings. Sending them home too early could cause ‘frightening damage,’ said López-Gatell.

7/On March 24, Mexico declared it had “community transmission.” It increased testing to track the virus’ movement and amped up restrictions, to try to “flatten the curve” of cases and not overwhelm hospitals.

8/But last Saturday, movement in Mexico City had only declined 30%. By Monday, it was 60%. For the strategy to work, people have to stay home and keep the virus from spreading wildly.

9/One issue: President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has at times seemed to ignore his own experts’ warnings -- shaking hands and holding big rallies until recently. He’s been criticized for muddying the message.

10/Some experts say Mexico should have done more testing. Countries that do -- like South Korea -- ‘are doing better than those that don’t,’ said Carlos del Rio, a Mexican epidemiologist at Emory University.

11/Others say testing is overemphasized. ‘No one has been able to replicate’ South Korea’s success, said Samuel Ponce de León, an infectious-disease specialist at Mexico’s flagship public university, UNAM.

12/There’s skepticism about the govt approach. But experts say there really are fewer cases in Mexico. Why? People in California and Texas have more contact with Europe and Asia -- which had big outbreaks -- than residents of northern Mexico.

13/ Mexico has had just 28 coronavirus deaths so far, compared to over 3,000 for the US. Hospitals aren’t yet seeing a crush of cases. That doesn’t mean Mexico will be spared though.

14/’We will have it,’ said Ponce de León. ‘But we’re at a different moment in the epidemic.’

15/Here’s more details: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-mexico-us-border-covid-19/2020/03/30/18ad79b2-7061-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html

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