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Fascinating new Deutsche Bank report examining 800 years of major economic recessions, and comparing them to our current predicament. Will tweet some of the charts.
Here is the data for the UK's biggest recessions, going back to 1271. DB's forecast for 2020 will make this the third-worst year of the past century, but at least it's no 1629.
Looking just at quarterly growth, this will be the worst three months since at least 1920.
Deutsche Bank forecasts a 4.2% shrinkage for the US economy this year, which is the worst since the Great Depression.
The US has quarterly GDP data going back to 1947, and Deutsche Bank expects this to be the worst quarter BY FAR.
Here are the charts for France and Germany, with the data going back to 1832 and 1851 respectively.
And for Italy and Japan, going back to 1862 and 1871 respectively.
To sum up, this is going to be a very very very bad year for the global economy.
