no idea what must be done with a lot of you guys that just found this feed
how can I transport/transfer at least some of whatever tiny knowledge I have best over to you?
what format?
got many dm asking for literature atm, can produce a list later...
- knowledge
- infrastructure
problem is that successful trading/investing has its roots in correct treatment of the problem at hand ie pro style/scientific approach
pro style involves acknowledging our limitations, both in knowledge and psychologically which must be respected but can be transformed over time
despite all stuff that can be thrown at you for study, there will always be a very personal component that circles around big words like "honesty" and "confidence"
successful ppl I know have a sense for quality and are humble - know how to save energy and money
all need a mentor
fine, that's stupid for I can't mentor a 1000 ppl despite the fact that all I know fits less than a page, I reckon
hm, twtr may be an ok medium for now, you can always ask and I will think about it more and try to put a plan together when done with some work, later on
ok, am thinking of a structure like this
let's have your ideas added and then I will go about it
been sorting useful reads already, etc...

am sure I have forgotten sth, so, engage pls
l8er
as a "foreword" I'd like to draw your attention to the psychology of masses
many of the books/texts I will name can be found on the web in pdf format etc.
next you could watch this short and simple video about why markets move
trader Kai Whitney talks
still part of the Foreword
next thing everyone should do is think about personal finances, how to tie it all together and how investing/trading might finally fit into all this
INFRASTRUCTURE
first thing we must understand is that NOT everybody is good at EVERYTHING, Options guys can't trade Bonds, a Futures trader may be bad at position trading etc
What vehicle is it going to be? Beginners should not touch leverage and stick to "simple" = stocks/ETF
INFRASTRUCTURE
Trading platforms and brokerages should be picked according to market access we need and cost
Domestic vs The World - will you need access to trade Baht vs USD? Do you need access to Dutch stocks, etc?
Low cost vs efficiency and personal feel may be imp
INFRASTRUCTURE
Interactive Brokers ie offers real bad charting only, but superior access to markets
ThinkOrSwim has all US and good charting at a discount ;-)
Ninja needs external data feeds but looks highly customizable,
CQG, Sierra charts - I did it all, try simple
INFRASTRUCTURE
There are websites ranking brokerages and costs
- know that cost is very imp but not key
next: we don't need "n" screens - 2 screens can be efficient enough
tbc
INFRASTRUCTURE- MEDIA/The Industry,Conflicts of Interest
Everybody is out there to get our money selling us often pretty dated and even useless stuff. Mr Market is a forward looking indicator, trying to discount an economic future 6-12months out, the Media is talking about y-day
INFRASTRUCTURE - Purists like Seykota don't care much about news - according to their teaching all news go straight into the bin. Try to be selective about who and what influences your process. Sell side needs to sell assets to us for a profit, like a warehouse operation.
INFRASTRUCTURE - Charting Websites/Software
Trading View
Stockcharts
We want to maintain an inventory of charts. These sites offer different ways to save our work and chart collections.
Quandl, YCharts, Koyfin etc offer useful tools to overlay price data with fundamental data.
INFRASTRUCTURE - DATA
Stocks and ETF come with a myriad of data points attached. Sites like Gurufocus, Zacks, YCharts, Quandl, ValueLine, Koyfin etc, offer access to that data. Sometimes we must pay to be able to download into Excel which can be a time saving thing to do.
INFRASTRUCTURE - those who have not built a set of Excel skill sets could try and find this on the web - else there are many vids on utube explaining things re Excel
INFRASTRUCTURE
why is this so damn important? infrastructure is at the very heart of a pro process, it is our base for a decision tree. process is all we have when things stop working.
if we don't treat this like a biz, we will never make it consistently.
its that simple
KNOWLEDGE BASE

ok next comes the all important "Knowledge Base"

1...
2...
3...

aaaaand that's it...
KNOWLEDGE BASE
I mean "F-ME" what do I know.... but ok, will try
The hardest part to talk about is "Experience" I guess, this is difficult to generalize. I found some good literature and reading Dasan's etc shows that we all face similar psychological problems. ok?
KNOWLEDGE BASE
Trading is "blabla"
We're all doomed as long as we don't take care of risk. Taking care of risk took care of my emotions, largely, but this book is really fantastic, go read it
I will be able to show you how to take care of risk, to some extend. You will be ok
KNOWLEDGE BASE
Learn what style fits your personality - changing mrkts force us to learn and change along.
now, if you don't like change, if you don't like to study all day, don't even think to try your hand in this - on top, most don't want you to know a thing, its hostile
KNOWLEDGE BASE
remember, we are supposed to "sell low & buy high" ok?
Nobody knows us, everybody is out to get our pretty $$.
To beat that we need process and force the 'enemy' to PLAY BY OUR RULES - never seek to play on his/her terms - your process defines your field of battle
KNOWLEDGE BASE
the only way for me to make it is to stick to a narrow field
am on and off this since 1987 - the few things I am confident in I use, everything else I must leave to others.
I have a broad understanding of what's going on left and right, but no edge
KNOWLEDGE BASE
there are "world champion" bond traders on here, there are guys who trade zillions in derivatives on here, there are futures specialists and options chess players on here that know a million times more than I ever will
admiration I have, but then I turn to my turf
KNOWLEDGE BASE
all these markets, every market in fact, requires specialist treatment. A bond desk is different from a Options pit (no pit anymore) and its all VERY different from commodities. Often the difference is in leverage but also in the amount of rain in Brazil last week
KNOWLEDGE BASE
all of this is imp when we try and express a view in a trade
we chose a field of battle but we must still respect what's going on in all these fields.
Bonds are the boss.
Commodities are the driver.
FX is the treasurer
and stocks and ETF are for dimwits like me...
KNOWLEDGE BASE - Analysis, Fundamental & TA
we need to respect both approaches as explained in the image. what comes first? frankly I give a damn. sometimes I get an idea from a certain sector for a TA reason, sometimes I wake up and think "coffee machines" or what have you
tbc
KNOWLEDGE BASE due to brevity am doing Bonds, FX and Comms massive injustice here. Rates rule the game. For many a reason I can not trade carry in FX like some leveraged "hogs" do. Look at corp borrowing rates, When they shift, equities may be in danger etc
so much to say here
KNOWLEDGE BASE - look at the US Yield Curve. It relates to FED policy etc. Short-Term rates are about what the FED is doing to the price of money and Long-Term rates are about inflation expectations. There are entire books written about this and when they decouple mrkts go crazy
KNOWLEDGE BASE
Bonds, FX, and commodities are largely for "Macro Traders". There are differences in FX as some currencies are pegged, some are thought to represent commodity based economies, etc... its another universe, highly political as soon as we move across jurisdictions
KNOWLEDGE BASE - pers remark
my 1st economics language was German, then Spanish and finally English, am a mess due to work on diff continents - needed to adjust many times, also in resources
here are some in English
read and study pls
KNOWLEDGE BASE
there are websites that contain much information ie Investopedia and some are interactive like https://traderscommunity.com/index.php  where one can get in touch. Some ppl I follow may answer questions when asked politely, but keep in mind that these are pros and time is money 🙄
KNOWLEDGE BASE - Stocks Fundamental Analysis
ok guys, that was fun. Now comes the hard part: you must read up on &study quite a few concepts.
Try and find used books on amzn or other places, try and find some pdf of them on the net (often goog page 4 and up) etc, try your worst
KNOWLEDGE BASE - Stocks (FA)
we need is data on them. Am not doing much fancy anymore for I have distilled it down to a narrow thing I need. Still am paying for a Zacks sub and a YCharts sub to get my hands on it for I need to custom calculate a few metrics - looking super scary
KNOWLEDGE BASE - Stocks (FA)
ok, b4 you start to run around like chicken its helpful to get an grip on what it is we need.
Stocks represent biz' that all want to be superstars, few succeed, many just soldier on, a lot fail. We need to find out more about it before we buy/sell
KNOWLEDGE BASE - (FA)
all heard about B.Graham (who almost went bankrupt, then had an epiphany) for fundamental analysis. Must try and simplify yet get deep enough to learn a few key things about debt, cash-flow, revenues, expenses and earnings etc... here are four books 4 u
KNOWLEDGE BASE - (FA)
can get numbers from Gurufocus website too among others. Friendly and helpful folk they are, at Guru, been with them b4. Next come ETF, we need data on them as well which is why I am at Ycharts these days.
(if you know other, customizable sources, pls share)
KNOWLEDGE BASE - (FA)
We're beginning to lean over and into tactics a little with this, but I want you to get a hold of these additional 4 reads asap to get a grip on ETF, on signals and economic indicators and initial portfolio construction problems while also using Options.
KNOWLEDGE BASE - (FA)
remember, mr & mrs mrkt are trying to discount what may come to pass 6, 8, 12 months from now
so, by checking forward looking leading indicators we can stalk around its grand intentions and maybe find some dislocation the media has not been paying attn to
KNOWLEDGE BASE - (FA)
forefathers of mine & their relatives gave their life in resistance to a brutal dictatorship - what made them act were the teachings of Christ and Aristotle - they can still help us in life
Clayton Christensen was an influential economic philosopher
tbc
KNOWLEDGE BASE - (FA) Links
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000011
https://research.stlouisfed.org/useraccount/ 
we can have a user acct at the StLouis FRED and build a deep eco data repository from data series available there and which can be downloaded into excel in one shot
KNOWLEDGE BASE - Interlude
we are here
there is a million more things to say about everything, many pros must be pretty disappointed about this tour de force, all I try to do here is draw a silhouette. More about Fundamental data must be said. Much study needed, guys
ON to TA
tbc
KNOWLEDGE Base - Interlude2
do not think for a minute that you're a genius if a position is up 10% over night
if you do, you will invariably have to be the dumbest bum should the opposite happen and that pill will be very hard to swallow depressing you for a long time => detach
KNOWLEDGE BASE - Interlude 3 (last)
before we go into TA:
a) we need a daily market wrap
check @marcmakingsense and @saxomarketcall for that

b) friends @MarkNewtonCMT @NickGiva @MarkArbeter @JLyonsFundMgmt @JulietteJDI @SamanthaLaDuc etc
offer subscriptions and edu @GregoireDup
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
guys, if you don't treat this as a biz, w/ a plan, w/ a process
mr mrkt will send his guy to collect from you.
you will be out of this game before you know it

need to read ALL literature I give you, ALL !!
NO EXCEPTION !! GO STUDY AND READ!!
ok, now onto TA
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
thing in FA that's notoriously difficult to measure is management. some say its the most imp thing - been on many calls, been talking to CEOs, CIOs & CFOs until realized that many were just putting "lipstick on their pig" which is understandable but bad
KB - TA
There is no such problem in TA. all fields of interest can be addressed and found out about as long as we have a access to data and a calculator/computer.
You can see from this that there are 4 questions that need answering in TA
KB - TA
TA is data on price & volume
we have the open, high, low, close (OHLC) and the range of price action and we have volume.
Next come fancy derivatives of that of which many are just plain bs showered upon us from a broker whose sole intention is to take our money away asap
KB- TA
the previous image shows a bullish candle, for a bearish turn open and close around...
Every such 'Candle' is about the 'tug of war' between supply and demand, no exception, and it tells the story of the action within a defined time frame, be it one minute or one year
KB - TA
now, anybody presenting a chart of candles or bars of price action not showing volume better have a very good reason, bc otherwise its a strong sign of non-edu and BAD TA
Volume either confirms action or refutes it, volume should make us think and anomalies warn us
Knowledge Base - TA
ok, time for you to go to work and study
you absolutely must get a hold of this one way or another (online or amzn) and you must study every word of it
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
am not very familiar with Trading View, I hear its good & perhaps should pull it up close but have a subs at Stockcharts since many years and a cpl 100 annotated charts organized over there, so, much of what I show you here will be on SC, my chart lists on SC
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
some pure TA traders on here, some I have mentioned already - @Techs_Global has taken it to new frontiers as far as I can see
am mostly a lone ranger myself, don't like too much input, but I have TONS of respect!!
These 4 books are worth your time...
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
James Dalton (Mind Over Markets) caught on a holiday

Hank Pruden on Cause and Effect

Pruden having fun (and making fun of us) in his university office
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
Chimp features on all charts on ThinkOrSwim
Steidlmayer was the first to create a Volume Over Price market profile, Dalton expanded it, reading both won't hurt you...
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
coming up:
1 chart inventory
1a Sectors
1b Industries
2 Scans
3 Universe of Assets
4 Balance vs Imbalance
5 Signals and Switches
5a Relative Strength
5b Trends
5b Oscillators
6 More on Volume
7 On Diversification

and after this we'll go to
TRADE MANAGEMENT
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
to be successful at this one has to stop "retail ways of thinking" and "retail ways of action".
Why oh why are 90% unsuccessful at this (and yes, that includes authors of many "useful" books)?
=> Simple truth: 90% of information must be wrong...! Read!
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
what needs to be done then..? Simple but v difficult at the same time: you have to turn EVERYTHING on its head.
1st: take a chart. The broker gives you colored bars. Green for up, red for "down". This is a pro chart, no colors. (I like to use red=down=faster)
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
YOU NEED TO ABSOLUTELY HAMMER THIS INTO YOUR BRAINS. We absolutely stand no chance w/out understanding this principle: The market is a wholesale warehouse operation. Ppl buy from us to sell it back to us later and at a mark-up. Ok? We never own anything here.
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
example of counterintuitive action to illustrate the points here
good risk management, good trade management
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
We cannot possibly work off a chart w/out understanding these key basics of market price action.
Read and try in your head to come up with an imaginary chart. Try to visualize this action in your head.
I salute you, "Uncle Joe"...
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
We need volume to validate price action. While this is not an exact science, its still a powerful tool when trying to understand Mr Mrkts "intentions"... S/He is a pro, s/he tries to take money away from me all the time. He/she is never my friend, never been.
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
Looking at "ratio trades" this hour. These are trades that we can use to lean risk/reward against some specific characteristics ie a "mean-reverting" character or a fundamental reason such as inflationary vs deflationary etc.
Focus here is on mean reversion
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
L XLF, S XLU - can construct this as a dollar hedge ie 10 USDlong vs 10 USDshort. In this case you have a pure directional bet. Can hedge out market risk at the same time in which case we must use Beta to inform position size. Beta of long must be > than short
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
must not forget that we pay the shorts' dividends & must respect stops when triggered.
A stop around 3% is the maximum risk to take. Here are calculations in all their glory. Can also inform stops via ATRs
This is not a trade advice, this is for edu only!
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
ok? A thread about TA-informed trading wouldn't be complete w/out following through on ratios & taking them L/S is TA trading on another level. Keep this in mind when we look at t/ all imp inventory of RATIO charts you need to build & maintain l8er
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
beast like MTUM/SPY is NOT for the faint at heart. You can see here why. Ppl drawing a nice line from close to close omit the sweat and terror. In L/S we seek much smoother rides. XLF/XLU is another such "wild bronco" - a Beta ratio below 1.5 is preferable 😂
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
Understand those arrows you must, understand the pattern you must and you will free yourself... Study volume!
Read the literature...
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
we'll talk about volume later again - we're into Ratios now
a) Cycle
b) Universe
c) Sector Assets
d) Ratio
ok, take these assets, study the cycle and their sensitivity and do ratios, then save them in a list and share them with us, ok..? Have fun!
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
some more assets for Ratios - go play

after doing this we must try and establish an immediate idea about what "the casino" or the "Composite Operator" is doing and address consequences of that for us in single trade ideas
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
think about past winners and why everything may be very different (or very much the same) this time, ok...?
Do ratios and fathom and probe whats going on out there. Try and formulate a view, a thesis. write it down.
got work here
l8er😐
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
trying to explain a few key concepts again
Price has no "value" - get this straight, you silly nuts!
there is no "cheap" nor "expensive" - all there is is volume
By announcing higher price MM's try to attract biz from emotional retail, smart buys on down days
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
you don't have to believe a word I say (lucky you)
just listen to Kai again
now leave me alone, got work to do, you silly beans
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
want to be in this trade, don't think I can this week, must wait...
Both Accumulation and Distribution create "Balance", see?
Re-Accumulation or "Kaboom" - that is the big Q
note the "Pareto-Nature" of the price advance...
Volume and price will tell...
KNOWLEDGE BASE - TA
ok, we'll talk about scans for TA next, then single assets and how to assess smart money intentions regarding those single assets and how to read it. Then we come to indicators and some of the bs going on there etc...
how are you doing so far? Study!
always remember
through creating our infrastructure and our process we create our field of battle. Our strategy should never change.
Our moves ON the battlefield are defined by understanding the enemy's tactics to which we have to respond with great flexibility and respect
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