"...police union officials have been predicting a crime wave as cities reduce low-level arrests and release inmates to slow COVID-19. But, in Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles and San Francisco, recent data show big drops in crime week over week"

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/03/27/as-coronavirus-surges-crime-declines-in-some-cities?

Folks, your hot "of course, people are staying home" take doesn't address this argument...

Police unions suggested letting people out during COVID-19 would result in huge increases in crime...that has NOT happened

Yes, the crisis and social distancing is the likely cause....and it is probably unlikely that reductions in arrests or decarceration inherently reduce crime...but, the point is that COVID related decarceration did not cause a crime spree (which was the predction)

Perhaps this person put it best in this GOLD STANDARD Tweet https://twitter.com/TahirDuckett/status/1244254070912749573?s=20

I do think it is fair to suggest that as people b/c more desperate from, for instance, unemployment, crime might increase as a result of #Covid_19, but probably not directly as a result of decarceration