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people are still acting like confirmed cases = actual # of infections
file under: legibility, Goodhart& #39;s law
file under: legibility, Goodhart& #39;s law
we do not have anywhere NEAR reliable enough data for this victory lap — the impact of the shelter in place order is likely now / in the near future, for example, since people showing up at the hospital are on a lag https://twitter.com/PCH_SF/status/1244314334538285057
I">https://twitter.com/PCH_SF/st... commend SF& #39;s response but geez
I">https://twitter.com/PCH_SF/st... commend SF& #39;s response but geez
reminder that the numbers aren& #39;t accurate https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1247573157504057345?s=21">https://twitter.com/nycsouthp... https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1247573157504057345">https://twitter.com/nycsouthp...
argh, had to delete some napkin math because immediately after issuing a reminder that the data is unreliable, I accidentally mixed up California-as-a-whole data with SF Bay Area data 
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alright, let& #39;s keep this simple
as of April 6, there have been 374 COVID-19 deaths in CA #COVID-19%20by%20the%20Numbers">https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Immunization/ncov2019.aspx #COVID-19%20by%20the%20Numbers
back">https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/... on April 1 there were 171 deaths https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-039.aspx
then">https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/... 203 on April 2 https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-041.aspx
so">https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/... currently the death # is doubling every ~5 days
as of April 6, there have been 374 COVID-19 deaths in CA #COVID-19%20by%20the%20Numbers">https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Immunization/ncov2019.aspx #COVID-19%20by%20the%20Numbers
back">https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/... on April 1 there were 171 deaths https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-039.aspx
then">https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/... 203 on April 2 https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-041.aspx
so">https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/... currently the death # is doubling every ~5 days
I suspect that current deaths are from infections that predate the shelter-in-place order, so I am optimistic that we& #39;ll see doubling slow quite a bit
let& #39;s guesstimate that in a few weeks, we& #39;ll see 10-day death # doubling, to get a sense of the scope...
let& #39;s guesstimate that in a few weeks, we& #39;ll see 10-day death # doubling, to get a sense of the scope...
COVID-19 deaths in California as of April 6: 374
so, here are crude projections that assume a 10-day doubling rate:
• 748 deaths on April 16
• 1,496 on April 26
• 2,992 on May 6
• 5,984 on May 16
• 11,968 on May 26
so, here are crude projections that assume a 10-day doubling rate:
• 748 deaths on April 16
• 1,496 on April 26
• 2,992 on May 6
• 5,984 on May 16
• 11,968 on May 26
if you keep extrapolating, California *alone* hits 100,000 deaths by, I think, early July?
it& #39;s not a safe bet that CA will *actually* have that many dead, even by the end of the year (for example)
but it& #39;s not an unjustified bet either
it& #39;s not a safe bet that CA will *actually* have that many dead, even by the end of the year (for example)
but it& #39;s not an unjustified bet either
crude projections from *current* CA death # growth rate of 5 days (versus my hopeful speculation of 10 days)
April 6 —> 374 deaths
April 11 —> 748 deaths
April 16 —> 1,496 deaths
April 21 —> 2,992 deaths
April 26 —> 5,984 deaths
May 1 —> 11,968 deaths
April 6 —> 374 deaths
April 11 —> 748 deaths
April 16 —> 1,496 deaths
April 21 —> 2,992 deaths
April 26 —> 5,984 deaths
May 1 —> 11,968 deaths
so that gives us an optimistic near-term scenario for California: 11,968 deaths from COVID-19 by May 26
and a not-so-optimistic scenario: 11,968 deaths by May 1
and a not-so-optimistic scenario: 11,968 deaths by May 1
