people are still acting like confirmed cases = actual # of infections

file under: legibility, Goodhart's law

we do not have anywhere NEAR reliable enough data for this victory lap — the impact of the shelter in place order is likely now / in the near future, for example, since people showing up at the hospital are on a lag https://twitter.com/PCH_SF/status/1244314334538285057

I commend SF's response but geez

reminder that the numbers aren't accurate https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1247573157504057345?s=21 https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1247573157504057345

argh, had to delete some napkin math because immediately after issuing a reminder that the data is unreliable, I accidentally mixed up California-as-a-whole data with SF Bay Area data

alright, let's keep this simple

as of April 6, there have been 374 COVID-19 deaths in CA https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Immunization/ncov2019.aspx#COVID-19%20by%20the%20Numbers

back on April 1 there were 171 deaths https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-039.aspx

then 203 on April 2 https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/NR20-041.aspx

so currently the death # is doubling every ~5 days

I suspect that current deaths are from infections that predate the shelter-in-place order, so I am optimistic that we'll see doubling slow quite a bit

let's guesstimate that in a few weeks, we'll see 10-day death # doubling, to get a sense of the scope...

COVID-19 deaths in California as of April 6: 374

so, here are crude projections that assume a 10-day doubling rate:

• 748 deaths on April 16
• 1,496 on April 26
• 2,992 on May 6
• 5,984 on May 16
• 11,968 on May 26

if you keep extrapolating, California *alone* hits 100,000 deaths by, I think, early July?

it's not a safe bet that CA will *actually* have that many dead, even by the end of the year (for example)

but it's not an unjustified bet either

crude projections from *current* CA death # growth rate of 5 days (versus my hopeful speculation of 10 days)

April 6 —> 374 deaths
April 11 —> 748 deaths
April 16 —> 1,496 deaths
April 21 —> 2,992 deaths
April 26 —> 5,984 deaths
May 1 —> 11,968 deaths

so that gives us an optimistic near-term scenario for California: 11,968 deaths from COVID-19 by May 26

and a not-so-optimistic scenario: 11,968 deaths by May 1