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India's true mortality rate from #COVID19 correctly measured almost an unmeasurably small 0.017%. The lockdown which threatens to unleash a humanitarian/economic disaster is not backed by science or evidence. PM @narendramodi must recalibrate. My analysis. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/covid-19-total-lockdown-63799/
In my analysis, I debunk the alarmist conclusion of Ramanan Laximnarayan who purports to have a "model" but does not share the math or stats behind it.Imagine a model with no equations or methodology. His alarmist conclusions have created panic and fear. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/covid-19-total-lockdown-63799/
There's a possibility Modi will extend this draconian lockdown till May for a small 0.017% mortality rate. While I'm in favour of a partial lockdown, this total lockdown was a bad idea. It's not backed by science or evidence or increased testing. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/covid-19-total-lockdown-63799/
Nearly 2 months after India detected its first Covid19 case, Indians need to ask why we're not seeing the creaky public health care system collapse if indeed there are many people infected and showing strong symptoms. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/covid-19-total-lockdown-63799/
For those who're latching on to the common flu reference in my piece, it's not an ASSUMPTION but an INFERENCE of the analysis. And I clearly say that a low mortality rate doesn't mean COVID19 is a non-issue but it's not a cause for the kind of paranoia we're seeing now.
Important to ask: Did she die OF COVID19 or die WITH COVID19. Huge difference between the two. https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1243851174878433280?s=20
More testing obviously better than less. And it'll throw up more cases which is not a reason for panic. Iceland tested 3.2% of its population. Roughly 6.3% of those tested positive,15 in hospitals, one in intensive care, 2 dead and rest self-quarantining. https://fortune.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-testing-us-iceland-cdc-trump-decode-covid-19-tests/
Bogus piece based on a model that has not been shared by the author and who without permission used @JohnsHopkins logo. https://twitter.com/princeton/status/1243923632260288513?s=21 https://twitter.com/Princeton/status/1243923632260288513
The high mortality rates that you read and cause panic are based on faulty analysis. The denominator is too low because it doesn't consider all COVID19 infected people, just confirmed cases, thereby inflating the mortality rate. #ReUp https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/covid-19-total-lockdown-63799/
And yet India is under a draconian total lockdown with a likely extension, when its true mortality rate is only 0.017% according to my calculation. Read my piece https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/covid-19-total-lockdown-63799/
Good to have this clarification. But where is the model? The authors don’t share their methodology. No way to replicate their alarmist findings. How did they come up their findings? Are we supposed to just take their word on it? https://twitter.com/johnshopkinsih/status/1243928583858532352?s=21 https://twitter.com/JohnsHopkinsIH/status/1243928583858532352
How are you convinced by this mere description of the so called model which is driving fear and panic. Indians need to ask questions not just mindlessly accept what they’re told.
https://twitter.com/johnshopkinsih/status/1243928583858532352?s=21 https://twitter.com/JohnsHopkinsIH/status/1243928583858532352
https://twitter.com/johnshopkinsih/status/1243928583858532352?s=21 https://twitter.com/JohnsHopkinsIH/status/1243928583858532352
University of Milan study suggests 5 million+Italians may have been infected by Covid19. It goes to my argument (see pinned tweet)denominator in conventionally measured mortality rate way too small.If millions infected,true mortality rate actually very low https://rep.repubblica.it/pwa/locali/2020/04/03/news/milano_la_ricerca_dell_universita_statale_i_contagi_reali_in_italia_potrebbero_essere_5_milioni_-253027121/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I253056306-C12-P3-S5.4-T1
If this Milan U study is correct and true number of infected is 5 million+ in Italy, you get very low mortality rate of 0.3%, not the 12% that has caused panic and paranoia. BenDavid+Bhattacharya in the WSJ estimated an even lower mortality rate of 0.06% . https://twitter.com/rupasubramanya/status/1246747480928088064?s=20
America's top infectious disease expert Dr. Fauci says as many as 25-50% may be infected and are asymptomatic. Yet more evidence the number infected has been grossly underestimated and therefore the mortality rate has been grossly overestimated. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/world/coronavirus-news.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
