WHO MAKES THE MOST SENSE AS VP - The Swing State Edition.

I have no insight on who @JoeBiden will select as his running mate. The media has floated out names but 5 names and in this order:

@SenKamalaHarris
@SenCortezMasto
@amyklobuchar
@GovMLG
@ewarren

The 2008 & 2012 general election plus the 2020 primary have proven that Biden has a stronger appeal to cut Democratic losses in rural/ex-urban America that hurt Gore, Kerry & Hillary. He also does well with older Black voters.

He's struggled in the Southwest & younger voters.

Let's go State by State from the easiest swing state for Democrats to win to the toughest and ask the question...who would help Biden the most.

I am using this consensus swing state map from @270toWin & current state polling (which can change based on events.)

Michigan - Hillary barely lost the state. Gretchen Whitmer won the state. Biden needs help to turn out Black voters in Detroit & other Michigan cities. Governor Whitmer turned to Gatlin Gilchrest as her Lt. Governor to do that.

Kamala Harris makes the most sense in Michigan

Pennsylvania - Hillary barely lost this state in 16. She suffered huge losses in rural/exurban areas, lost the burbs but drove up turnout in Philly & Pittsburg. Governor Wolfe won reelection with John Fetterman as his running mate.

Amy Klobuchar makes sense.

Arizona - Democrats will likely win this state in 2020 due to rampant migration of California to the state. Most of the 550k new Arizona voters into Maricopa County came from Cali.

Sinema won her Senate race & Kelly is favored.

Kamala, Cortez-Masto & Lujan-Grisham work.

North Carolina - Roy Cooper is the Governor of the state. Dems won the House statewide vote in 2018. The margin of victory in NC requires high black turnout, winning the very racially diverse suburbs & 70+% Latinx support.

Kamala & Cortez-Masto make sense.

Florida - Hillary narrowly lost Florida, Nelson & Gillum both lost their races by even closer margins. All 3 underperformed Obama in South Florida & overperformed him in Central FL & Duval but were blown out in rural Florida.

Florida (Part 2) - Democrats must win Dade, Palm Beach and especially Broward County by margins that offset most of the state.

Who can appeal to the working class voters of color & especially the voters of color from immigrant/refugee background?

Florida (Part 3) - Who can Biden park in Miami, Little Haiti, Little Havana, Sistrunk Ave, Boynton Beach, Hialeah etc that can speak to the experiences of Cuban, Haitian, Venezuelan, Jamaican, Lebanese and other major immigrant communities there.

Kamala & no one else is close!

Wisconsin - SEE THE MICHIGAN TWEET! Tony Evers won. Biden needs help to turn out Black voters in Milwaukee. Governor Evers turned to Mandela Barnes as her Lt. Governor to do that.

Kamala Harris makes the most sense in Wisconsin.

Texas - Beto came within a hair of beating Cruz. He was an underperformance in Dallas & Fort Worth from being Senator.

The VP candidates that can mirror his turnout models are likely the three from the Southwest.

Lujan-Grisham, Cortez-Masto & Kamala make the most sense.

7 swing states & here is the tally based on the demographics of voters Biden can be helped with by his VP choice.

Kamala is the best in 6
Cortez-Masto in 3
Lujan-Grisham in 2
Amy in 1

Warren makes absolutely no sense as a VP choice.

Going swing state by swing state using the voters that Hillary did not win in 2016, that Obama won in 2008/2012 & Democrats won in 2018, it makes it easier to decipher who should be the VP choice.

I can only see a case for @SenCortezMasto & @SenKamalaHarris being considered.

Nevertheless, if you are making a data driven case for VP, Kamala Harris makes the most sense for the 7 swing states.

Hopefully, @TeamJoe is powered by the same data.

Bookmarking and free to share for anyone who banters that the case for Kamala is simply black voters and black voters rejected her - they didn't.