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Starting a thread summarizing Coronavirus research.
Disclaimer: I am not an epidemeologist and studies are being produced very quickly and on often sketchy and problematic data. I will try my best to summarize as good as possible.
Disclaimer: I am not an epidemeologist and studies are being produced very quickly and on often sketchy and problematic data. I will try my best to summarize as good as possible.
1. Studies on infection and mortality rates.
One of the earliest studies to establish facts was on all cases in China up to February 11th. 72,314 cases were diagnosed with COVID 19 and 44,672 confirmed.
The case fatality rate was 2.3%.
Demographic Profiles and Geographic Spread are analized http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
The case fatality rate was 2.3%.
Demographic Profiles and Geographic Spread are analized http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
An interesting subfact about this study is that among the 1,716 health workers, who were probably a less self selected group in terms of being tested, but also excluded very old individuals, only 5 died (0.3%).
shortly after that the WHO published a mission report to China, which includes information on the virus, the outbreak, transmission dynamics and symptoms. It's here. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
Some highlights
Some highlights
Whole genome analysis of 104 strains of the virus taken from patients in different chinese localities was done, showing over 99.9% homology and no signs of mutation, reducing worries about a very rapidly mutating virus. (pic shows covid 19 & genetically close reference viruses)
median age of the 55,924 chinese cases up to February 20th was 51 and 51.1% were male
-most transmission probably happened in families: among 344 clusters involving 1308 cases 78%-85% occurred in families.
-most transmission probably happened in families: among 344 clusters involving 1308 cases 78%-85% occurred in families.
Contact tracing was done agressively from the start:
in Wuhan more than 1800 teams of epidemiologists, with a minimum of 5 people/team, were
tracing tens of thousands of contacts a day. A high number of traced contacts (1-5%) were subsequently confirmed as cases of COVID-19
in Wuhan more than 1800 teams of epidemiologists, with a minimum of 5 people/team, were
tracing tens of thousands of contacts a day. A high number of traced contacts (1-5%) were subsequently confirmed as cases of COVID-19
China's Response consisted of 3 stages:
1) control source of infection & prevent spread out of Wuhan and Hubei (close wet markets, restrict movement)
2) reduce intensity of epidemic, slow down increase in cases
3) find and reduce clusters of cases, thoroughly control
epidemic
1) control source of infection & prevent spread out of Wuhan and Hubei (close wet markets, restrict movement)
2) reduce intensity of epidemic, slow down increase in cases
3) find and reduce clusters of cases, thoroughly control
epidemic
Finally the report (published feb 24) included some very clear guidelines, for uninfected countries, infected countries, the general public and the international communtiy (which make for a bit of a depressing read given how well they were heeded)
OK it's late here. I have so much to add. Will continue tomorrow. Good night everyone. Hug your loved ones and keep 2m distance of everyone else.
