THREAD: Is Social Distancing Finally Working?

Here is the latest US evidence.

# hours needed for US cases to double:
March 20: ~48 hours
March 21: ~48 hours
March 22: ~52 hours
March 23: ~60 hours
March 24: ~69 hours

As you see, the doubling time is heading in the right direction over the last few days from ~48 >> ~69 hours.

This means that it is taking longer amounts of time for COVID cases to double in number. Cases are growing daily but at a slower and slower rate of growth. That is key.

MAJOR CAVEAT: A few good numbers do NOT make a positive trend yet. We are not out of the woods.

BUT if this holds true, it is likely a result of the fact that 1 in 4 Americans is sheltering in place including in all the major epidemic centers: Seattle, SF, LA, NYC

This is the first evidence to date that stay-at-home orders and aggressive social distancing measures could indeed be working. We don’t know for sure but it is a very good early sign if true.

The dream scenario here: if we all stay away from each other, the virus runs out of human hosts. If the virus runs out of human hosts, the virus dies. If the virus dies, humanity beats COVID-19.

Collective societal action is needed, and it might just be happening.