Ahem. JOHN ELWAY WAS NOT A GREAT QUARTERBACK AND HERE IS THE PROOF

Last month, I started a podcast with @Taylor_Witt called It’s Always Sunny in Chiefs Kingdom. In our inaugural episode, we did a roast of Hall of Fame QB John Elway. Our conclusion, after examining the evidence, was incontrovertible: John Elway was NOT a great quarterback

While I encourage everyone to check out the podcast (available everywhere!), I’ve decided to reproduce the argument against Elway, “one of the greatest QBs of all time,” here, in the form of this twitter thread, as a public service. Anything to help people in this trying time.

John Elway was drafted #1 overall in 1983, a famously great QB class which also included Dan Marino and Jim Kelly. This is important, because as we will see, Elway’s NFL career was built on myth-making and hype, not good football. And it started with him being drafted 1.1

Actually, before that – he was a “generational prospect” at Stanford, where in his final collegiate season (which ended with him losing to Cal on “The Play;" Elway later said the refs “ruined my last game in college"), he led the nation with *24* TD passes

If your initial reaction to that "led the nation with *24* TD passes" bit was “iT wAs A dIfFeReNt ErA!” GOOD. It WAS a different era. So let’s compare John Elway to his contemporaries and see how he stacked up. Spoiler alert: not well!

19 different QBs started 100+ games between 1983 and 1998 (John Elway's career). Here’s where Elway ranks:

Comp % - 16th (of 19)

TD% - 13th

INT% - 10th

QB rating – 14th

YPA – 10th

ANY/A – 11th

So if you began this thread with the belief that John Elway is one of the 10 best QBs *of all time* ask yourself – why wasn’t he even a top 10 QB *of his era*?

Those other 18 QBs include seven other Hall of Famers: Steve Young, Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, and Warren Moon…

…some good players – guys like Randall Cunningham, Boomer Esiason, Phil Simms, and Bernie Kosar…

…and several who you wouldn’t think, by popular discourse, even played the same sport as John Elway: Dave Krieg, Ken O’Brien, Jeff George, Jim Harbaugh, Jim Everett, Bobby Hebert, and Vinny Testaverde.

Again, note that John Elway’s BEST rank amongst all these QBs is 10th.

Of 19.

In yards per attempt.

He ranks 14th in QB rating, ahead of only George, Harbaugh, Everett, Hebert, and Testaverde.

QB rating isn't a good stat generally, because changes in the NFL game have resulted in inflation in QB rating. An avg QB in 2020 might have a passer rating north of 90, which would've often led the league in the 1980s. We can't use it to compare Elway to Peyton Manning

But it's not a bad stat for comparing QBs in the same era, because they all played by the same rules.

And John Elway had the 14th worst passer rating of the 19 QBs who started 100+ games during his career. That's not good!

So why did people ever think John Elway was a *good* QB, let alone one of the greatest of all time? Glad you asked. It starts with counting stats. A counting stat is exactly what it sounds like: a stat that says how many times a person won a game, or threw a touchdown.

John Elway retired in 1998 with more QB winz than any other QB in NFL history, and more TD passes than any QB not named Dan Marino. Sounds impressive! This is usually the first argument put forth for John Elway’s greatness – he had lots of wins and TD passes when he retired

But here’s the problem with counting stats. The longer you count, the higher the totals go, even if you aren’t counting very quickly. John Elway retired with the most QB wins since the merger. He also had the most STARTS of any QB since the merger, and by a wide margin:

Most QB starts thru 1998:

ELWAY: 231
MARINO: 229
MOON: 202
KRIEG: 175
ESIASON: 173

When John Elway retired, he had started *29* more games than third-place Warren Moon, and *56* more than fourth-place Dave Krieg. No wonder he had the most wins!

With touchdown passes, it’s the same story, although Elway was so pedestrian at throwing touchdowns that, despite starting two more games in his career than Dan Marino, Marino threw *120* more touchdowns than Elway.

Elway did throw 10 more TDs than Moon…in 29 more starts.

Because Elway played SUCH a long time relative to every QB that came before him, he ended up with superficially impressive counting stats despite never performing at an elite level relative to his peers. How would Joe Montana’s numbers have looked if he’d played as long as Elway?

John Elway vs Joe Montana, 16 game averages

Elway: 502 attempts, 286 completions, 57% comp %, 3565 yards, 21 TDs, 16 INTs, 79.9 QB rating

Montana: 501 attempts, 317 completions, 63% comp %, 3772 yards, 25 TDs, 13 INTs, 92.3 QB rating

If Montana had played as long as Elway, he’d have over 3000 more passing yards, and *60* more TDs, with 38 fewer INTs

Elway led the NFL in passing ONCE in his 16-year career.

He NEVER lead in passing TDs (highest finish: 2nd, 1993)

He NEVER lead in QB rating (highest finish: 3rd, 1993)

He NEVER lead in YPA (highest finish: 3rd, 1987)

Most years, he wasn't even close

Set aside the stats, though. How was Elway perceived by the sports media in his day? Well, in his 16-year career, Elway won AFC Player of the Month twice.

Patrick Mahomes has also won AFC Player of the Month twice. He's played two seasons.

Elway was *never* named first-team All Pro by the Associated Press (he did get a few nods from UPI, which apparently is United Press International, and something called "Pro Football Weekly").

Not once in a 16-year career.

He did win one MVP, in 1987, but he absolutely shouldn’t have. He went 8-3-1 that year with a 54.6 completion %, 3198 yards passing, 19 TDs, 12 picks, 7.8 YPA (career high!), 83.4 QB rating. Meanwhile, Joe Montana that year…

Went 10-1 (better record)

66.1 comp % (12% higher)

3054 yards (12 fewer pass attempts)

7.7 YPA (pretty much identical)

31 TDs (12 more!)

13 INTs (one more than Elway)

102.1 QB rating (almost 20 points higher).

But it isn’t JUST in comparison to all-time great QBs that Elway suffers, though. Consider what 38 yr old Craig Morton did for the 1981 Broncos under Dan Reeves (more on him later):

59.8 comp%, 376 att, 3195 yds, 21 TDs, 14 INTs, 8.5 YPA, 90.5 passer rating

In comparison, John Elway’s 16 game averages under Dan Reeves, 1983-1992:

54.7 comp%, 482 att, 3357 yds, 18 TDs, 17 INTs, 7.0 YPA, 73.8 passer rating

38 year old Craig Morton was far better in 1981 than Elway ever was under the same coach

Steve Watson caught 60 passes for 1244 yards and 13 TDs from 38-year old Craig Morton. Over the next SIX years with Elway, he averaged 47, 773, and 4. He never went for more than 1170 yards receiving or more than 7 touchdowns with Elway.

Here’s 1998 Chris Chandler. He’s also playing for Dan Reeves, on the Falcons. He’s 33 years old. His career record is 35-49. He will retire with a 67-85 record.

In 1998: 58.1 comp%, 25 TDs, 12 INTs, 9.6 YPA, 100.9 passer rating

Here’s how those numbers stack up to John Elway’s CAREER BESTS:

Comp % - 58.1% (would be 7th best in Elway’s 16-yr career)

YPA - 9.6 (Elway's career high was 7.9)

TD% 7.6 (Elway's career high was 6.2)

TDs - 25 (Elway's career high was 27, he threw 26 twice, and in those seasons he had over 466 pass attempts each time. Chandler had 327 pass attempts in 1998)

QB rating 100.9 (Elway's career high was 93.0)

1998 Chris Chandler was better than any season of John Elway's career

So why is Elway so highly regarded? He was statistically inferior to many of the QBs of his own era, let alone the many who followed. He didn’t come close to setting efficiency records, or win many awards. So why the HELL is he considered one of the 10 best QBs ever?

1. He played for a long time, allowing him to post superficially impressive counting stats that no doubt stood out on the backs of football cards, in the pages of Sports Illustrated, on the 16-bit graphics of early sports cable TV shows

2. HYPE. Elway built a Hall of Fame career on narratives, not numbers. At Stanford, he was hailed as a generational talent, and his clout grew when he successfully forced his way out of Baltimore before he ever played a snap in the NFL.

I mean, sure, he lost his first three Super Bowls by a combined score of 136-40, but when he was down 7 to the Cleveland Browns with 5:32 to play in the 1987 AFC Championship game…

…he orchestrated what became known as “THE DRIVE,” a masterful 15 play, game…tying drive, leaving Cleveland with :39 left down 3. Yes. A five minute, game-tying playoff drive in a semi-final game became known as THE DRIVE. That’s the John Elway hype machine at work.

Had Elway not won two Super Bowls, back to back, in the final two years of his career, he likely would not even be in the Hall of Fame, let alone considered an all-time great. But at the time Elway retired, only 7 other QBs had won multiple Super Bowls (there are now 12)

So Elway’s narrative became that of a winner and all-time great, instead of a n unloveable loser who couldn’t win the big game. Statistically, his HOF case is similar to that of another two-time Super Bowl champion with a compelling narrative…Eli Manning

Don’t believe me? Well

And about those Super Bowls – is it a coincidence Elway’s coach was Mike Shanahan, a system QB god, whose son just came within 6 minutes of winning a Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo, with nearly the exact same system his father ran 25 years ago? It is not.

To supplement Shanahan’s offensive genius, the Broncos also furiously cheated, both on the field (where they rubbed their jerseys in Vaseline) and off (where they paid multiple players, including Elway, under the table, making a farce of the salary cap).

So OF COURSE Elway won with Shanahan, and put a neat little bow on a career driven by narratives and hype. Was he a winner? OF COURSE. He won the most games! He had two rings! Was he clutch? OF COURSE. He had THE DRIVE.

And luckily for Elway’s legacy, his peers never quite put together the narrative. Marino, Kelly, and Moon never won a Super Bowl. Steve Young, stuck behind Joe Montana, won only one. Randall Cunningham was before his time. Troy Aikman’s teams were loaded.

Even Joe Montana, the only QB of Elway’s era to be universally acknowledged as better than Elway thanks to his then record 4 Super Bowl titles, aided Elway’s legacy. Montana was an unheralded 3rd round pick, not a “generational talent” like Elway.

So when Montana won, critics could dismiss it as a product of Bill Walsh’s revolutionary West Coast Offense. Montana became the prime target for the “system QB” label, while Elway stole two Super Bowl rings playing in the most QB-friendly system in NFL history...

...and got all the credit, because it fulfilled the prophecy of John Elway, Great Quarterback, that began all the way back at Stanford.

John Elway sucked. The end.