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NYC to adopt Wuhan model. It’s not just about physical distancing, it’s not just about locking down. http://archive.is/uAUyf#selection-2661.219-2668.0
https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1241691413353504768
https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1241691413353504768
How has WSJ put this important article off Xihong Lin's analysis behind paywall! Avlbl in link above. In sum:
For suspected patients & contacs w/light symptoms
1) Place in hotel room
2) Give free wifi & good food
4) Ensure regular med checks
Result:rapid slowing of cases in 2wks
For suspected patients & contacs w/light symptoms
1) Place in hotel room
2) Give free wifi & good food
4) Ensure regular med checks
Result:rapid slowing of cases in 2wks
Its what most govts are going to adopt sooner or later once they develop test-treat-isolate state capacity. What grows exponentially can also decay rapidly once contact structure of society is changed with an effective interventions. https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1241691413353504768
Govts must create socio-technical-cultural capabilities
#PREVENT -keep humans away from viruses (test, trace, isolate)
#TREAT-prioritize whatever hospitals need (staff, vents, PPE) & vacc research
#COPE - How to deal w distancing & grief- probably hardest part.
All else is noise.
#PREVENT -keep humans away from viruses (test, trace, isolate)
#TREAT-prioritize whatever hospitals need (staff, vents, PPE) & vacc research
#COPE - How to deal w distancing & grief- probably hardest part.
All else is noise.
Because exponential growth dominates any fixed resource, #prevent capabilities have to be first priority even as #treat & #cope capabilities are ramped up. Highly recommend @yaneerbaryam stellar analysis since it all kicked off in Jan.
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/page/guidelines
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/page/guidelines
We've known since January when alarms rang in scientific community who studied pandemics that only 3 features matter for strategy:
(1) it spreads lightning quick asymptomatically (2) it is deadly (3) it can reduce fast by intervening to change network of contacts in society.
(1) it spreads lightning quick asymptomatically (2) it is deadly (3) it can reduce fast by intervening to change network of contacts in society.
The later the penny drops (i.e Principals in a jurisdiction move from denial/deceit/other priorities & agree on 1,2,3) the wider infection has spread in space, the bigger & more costly the multi-scalar intervention must be. It took days in Taiwan; 3 wks in China; Month+in US/EU
Similar problems are solved in similar ways in NYC as in Wuhan.
"After Feb1, healthcare workers who treat patients in Wuhan stayed in hotels... to prevent them from infecting family members and communities" ht @XihongLin @NYGovCuomo https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1-rvZs0zsXF_0Tw8TNsBxKH4V1LQQXq7Az9kDfCgZDfE/edit#slide=id.p47
"After Feb1, healthcare workers who treat patients in Wuhan stayed in hotels... to prevent them from infecting family members and communities" ht @XihongLin @NYGovCuomo https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1-rvZs0zsXF_0Tw8TNsBxKH4V1LQQXq7Az9kDfCgZDfE/edit#slide=id.p47
"College dorms, ice hockey rinks, hotels and naval ships are just some of the places that are being looked at by various federal and state agencies across the country to become either temporary hospitals or quarantine facilities" https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/states-closed-hospitals-college-dorms-meet-coronavirus-demands/story?id=69683447
Army Corps helps convert Convention center halls across US into overflow medical facility to treat non Covid-19 patients & relieve surge in ICUs & hospitals. ~3000 beds each in NYC Javits & Chicago's McCormick center. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/03/27/the-army-corps-of-engineers-has-two-or-three-weeks-to-get-thousands-of-new-hospital-beds-up-and-running/
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-mccormick-place-hospital-20200328-px7xupa67je5fmbmr72prne6by-story.html
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-chicago-mccormick-place-hospital-20200328-px7xupa67je5fmbmr72prne6by-story.html
Extraordinary scenes, last 24h in NYC
Field hospitals in Central Park: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/03/29/emergency-hospital-being-constructed-in-central-park
US Navy Medical Ship 'Comfort arrives':
Medical supplies airlift from Shanghai lands in JFK: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-airlift-masks-medical-supplies-1d1913bf-744e-41cf-895c-d8934afa2c36.html
Field hospitals in Central Park: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/03/29/emergency-hospital-being-constructed-in-central-park
US Navy Medical Ship 'Comfort arrives':
Medical supplies airlift from Shanghai lands in JFK: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-airlift-masks-medical-supplies-1d1913bf-744e-41cf-895c-d8934afa2c36.html
"In late January, the authorities in Wuhan were essentially doing what New York authorities are doing today". LA, Chicago & NYC slowly start to follow Wuhan Model of quarantining lightly sick and close contacts in hotels. ht @CarlMinzner https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/opinion/coronavirus-new-york-quarantine.html
NYC is where Wuhan was in late Jan. It needs to relieve hospitals & prevent new infections. Care for people who are recovering but not well enough to leave hospital & house healthcare workers to protect their families. Similar problem, similar solutions. https://brooklyneagle.com/articles/2020/04/02/new-york-city-will-lease-at-least-20-hotels-to-deal-with-the-coronavirus-hospital-surge/
'To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven' https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/nyregion/cathedral-st-john-the-divine-coronavirus-field-hospital.html
Universal mask wearing has finally been adopted from E Asia along with its pro-social logic (you wear it to protect others);
Next -- Centralised quarantine (to protect your family).
Natl Acad of Science' Fineberg & ex-World Bank head Kim make the case. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/opinion/coronavirus-smart-quarantine.html
Next -- Centralised quarantine (to protect your family).
Natl Acad of Science' Fineberg & ex-World Bank head Kim make the case. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/opinion/coronavirus-smart-quarantine.html
still don't quite understand the rationale of any newspaper putting public health related appeals behind paywalls during such times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/opinion/coronavirus-smart-quarantine.html https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1242997291952242688
Crucial difference bw NYC & Wuhan: "failure to surge health care workers & equipment into NY at an early date in an all-out effort to curb the spread of the coronavirus is likely to stand out as one of its most costly strategic errors"
ht @hofrench https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28666/america-can-t-afford-to-fail-new-york-the-epicenter-of-its-covid-19-outbreak
ht @hofrench https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28666/america-can-t-afford-to-fail-new-york-the-epicenter-of-its-covid-19-outbreak
Excellent analysis of Wuhan's social distancing AND also centralized isolation & quarantine to crush the curve. Its hard-won results must be emulated.
Safer now in Wuhan than anywhere else in world @BrankoMilan. R is less than 0.1! Thread ht @XihongLin https://twitter.com/XihongLin/status/1251276061398220800
Safer now in Wuhan than anywhere else in world @BrankoMilan. R is less than 0.1! Thread ht @XihongLin https://twitter.com/XihongLin/status/1251276061398220800
The goal is not #FlattenTheCurve but eradication. “Any country that is not actively trying to eradicate COVID-19 within the next 2 to 3 months has explicitly set their nation on a course to fight a losing battle with COVID-19 for years.”
ht @Comparativist https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/04/29/five-steps-to-eradicate-covid-19/
ht @Comparativist https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/04/29/five-steps-to-eradicate-covid-19/
Great NPR interview on how quarantine worked to end coronavirus in Asia Pacific. Simply wouldn't have worked without voluntary consent. ht Donald McNeil https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/29/847755751/compared-to-china-u-s-stay-at-home-has-been-a-giant-garden-party-journalist-says
https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1242997291952242688
https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1242997291952242688
#StampItOut in 10 weeks rather than defeatism of #FlattenTheCurve. That's strategy in Asia Pacific countries, whether rich or poor. From China & Taiwan to Myanmar & New Zealand. Hong Kong latest to eradicate virus. https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/04/29/five-steps-to-eradicate-covid-19/ https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1256432490534895617
Plateau of 1000s of infections & deaths a day is not acceptable. Hunkering down & hoping for 'testing testing testing' is not a strategy. Eradication is the goal. To do that, cases must be found, isolated, and their contacts traced & isolated comfortably. https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/its-not-too-late-to-go-on-offense-against-the-coronavirus
"Lockdowns aren't a solution, nor will virus magically disappear. They are astronomically costly way of buying time".
Goal for govts is to aggressively break chains of transmission between ppl. #TestTraceIsolate https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/04/eight-lessons-controlling-coronavirus-east-asian-nations-pandemic-public-health
Goal for govts is to aggressively break chains of transmission between ppl. #TestTraceIsolate https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/04/eight-lessons-controlling-coronavirus-east-asian-nations-pandemic-public-health
NYC adopts Wuhan model! City will pay for hotel rooms for mild/moderate cases. "Patients will be provided with food, pharmacy, and laundry while in the hotel. There is a small clinical staff in each hotel, including EMTs, which checks in on patients daily" https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1257275330705985537
Despite similar socioeconomics, In Queens, Flushing, which is heavily Asian, has among lowest COVID rates in NYC while neighboring Corona, heavily Latino, has among highest.
Why? While city & state officials dithered, Asians wore masks & shuttered business https://thecity.nyc/2020/05/the-life-and-death-divide-between-flushing-and-corona.html
Why? While city & state officials dithered, Asians wore masks & shuttered business https://thecity.nyc/2020/05/the-life-and-death-divide-between-flushing-and-corona.html
NY alone has more deaths than ALL of Asia. It adopted Wuhan quarantine model only in May to stop home infections (City pays for hotel rooms for mild/moderate cases; Ppl provided food & laundry while in hotel; Clinical staff checks in daily) In few wks, R<1 https://twitter.com/XihongLin/status/1251282136981803015
Xihong Lin's talk on her groundbreaking research on intervention strategies for COVID-19 is Thursday. Put it on your calendar! ht @BhramarBioStat @NISS_DataSci https://www.niss.org/events/nisscopss-webinar-learning-covid-19-data-wuhan-usa-and-europe-intervention-strategies
