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How about this for coronavirus "realism" - Let's spitball some numbers [THREAD]
WHO March 24 report lists total cases: 372,757 & deaths: 16,231
Given asymptomatics, misdiagnosis, low testing, too-late travel bans, let's triple that for a "possible" real case # of 1,118,271
1/6
WHO March 24 report lists total cases: 372,757 & deaths: 16,231
Given asymptomatics, misdiagnosis, low testing, too-late travel bans, let's triple that for a "possible" real case # of 1,118,271
1/6
Now let's say there's been MASSIVE conflation of people dying from other pneumonias or somesuch & HALVE the death count: 8,115
This would give a WuFlu death rate of 0.72%.
Interestingly, this matches NY state's Mar 24 stats.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-24-20-intl-hnk/h_544ea86632f3beb7399e05a754484eaa
2/6
This would give a WuFlu death rate of 0.72%.
Interestingly, this matches NY state's Mar 24 stats.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/
https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-24-20-intl-hnk/h_544ea86632f3beb7399e05a754484eaa
2/6
Let's halve the 0.72% we very roughly came up with because of medical heroics or cause more people had coronavirus mildly:
0.36% death rate
This *may be* the best case scenario given no human herd immunity, vaccine delay, medical resource hard limits in many countries, etc.
3/6
0.36% death rate
This *may be* the best case scenario given no human herd immunity, vaccine delay, medical resource hard limits in many countries, etc.
3/6
Truth is, there are so many "if's" that will change the outcome as they emerge, are discovered, or are distributed.
That anti-malarial drug needs to be proven in the field - if it works large scale, it's a total blessed surprise, not something anyone expected was available.
4/6
That anti-malarial drug needs to be proven in the field - if it works large scale, it's a total blessed surprise, not something anyone expected was available.
4/6
Calculating the death count now vs the case count now actually gives an inaccurate picture because those who die of COVID-19 take 2-6 *weeks* after infection to drop out.
Unprecedented vaccine efforts may yield a fast breakthrough. Or the vaccine will be here summer 2021...
5/n
Unprecedented vaccine efforts may yield a fast breakthrough. Or the vaccine will be here summer 2021...
5/n
How much have bans, lockdowns & voluntary action limited the seeding of WuFlu across each country geographically?
How "too-late" were the measures?
Where have there been super-spreaders? Where have there not been?
We'll know these unknowns soon.
Stay frosty my friends. 6/6
How "too-late" were the measures?
Where have there been super-spreaders? Where have there not been?
We'll know these unknowns soon.
Stay frosty my friends. 6/6
Bahrain says drug touted by Trump as coronavirus treatment working on its patients https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19
It's happening.
New Orleans and Detroit coming in hot like this surprised me though; missed some info in all the noise.
Seattle might be pulling off something heroic at least.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/hospitalizations-for-covid-19-like-illness-declined-last-week-in-washington-offering-a-glimmer-of-hope/ https://twitter.com/Jevaughn_Brown/status/1242824426405666816?s=20
New Orleans and Detroit coming in hot like this surprised me though; missed some info in all the noise.
Seattle might be pulling off something heroic at least.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/hospitalizations-for-covid-19-like-illness-declined-last-week-in-washington-offering-a-glimmer-of-hope/ https://twitter.com/Jevaughn_Brown/status/1242824426405666816?s=20
I started this thread with a thought experiment tripling the coronavirus case # & halving the death count to try to get closer to the actual death rate.
I'm now of a mind for hard-hit areas to 10x the case # & 1.5x the death #.
Still coming in around 0.5% death rate w/ NY data.
I'm now of a mind for hard-hit areas to 10x the case # & 1.5x the death #.
Still coming in around 0.5% death rate w/ NY data.
