How about this for coronavirus "realism" - Let's spitball some numbers [THREAD]

WHO March 24 report lists total cases: 372,757 & deaths: 16,231

Given asymptomatics, misdiagnosis, low testing, too-late travel bans, let's triple that for a "possible" real case # of 1,118,271

1/6

Now let's say there's been MASSIVE conflation of people dying from other pneumonias or somesuch & HALVE the death count: 8,115

This would give a WuFlu death rate of 0.72%.

Interestingly, this matches NY state's Mar 24 stats.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-24-20-intl-hnk/h_544ea86632f3beb7399e05a754484eaa
2/6

Let's halve the 0.72% we very roughly came up with because of medical heroics or cause more people had coronavirus mildly:

0.36% death rate

This *may be* the best case scenario given no human herd immunity, vaccine delay, medical resource hard limits in many countries, etc.
3/6

Truth is, there are so many "if's" that will change the outcome as they emerge, are discovered, or are distributed.

That anti-malarial drug needs to be proven in the field - if it works large scale, it's a total blessed surprise, not something anyone expected was available.

4/6

Calculating the death count now vs the case count now actually gives an inaccurate picture because those who die of COVID-19 take 2-6 *weeks* after infection to drop out.

Unprecedented vaccine efforts may yield a fast breakthrough. Or the vaccine will be here summer 2021...

5/n

How much have bans, lockdowns & voluntary action limited the seeding of WuFlu across each country geographically?

How "too-late" were the measures?

Where have there been super-spreaders? Where have there not been?

We'll know these unknowns soon.

Stay frosty my friends. 6/6

https://twitter.com/Jevaughn_Brown/status/1242824426405666816?s=20

Bahrain says drug touted by Trump as coronavirus treatment working on its patients https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/bahrain-hydroxychloroquine-success-response-covid-19

It's happening.

New Orleans and Detroit coming in hot like this surprised me though; missed some info in all the noise.

Seattle might be pulling off something heroic at least.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/hospitalizations-for-covid-19-like-illness-declined-last-week-in-washington-offering-a-glimmer-of-hope/ https://twitter.com/Jevaughn_Brown/status/1242824426405666816?s=20

I started this thread with a thought experiment tripling the coronavirus case # & halving the death count to try to get closer to the actual death rate.

I'm now of a mind for hard-hit areas to 10x the case # & 1.5x the death #.

Still coming in around 0.5% death rate w/ NY data.