Thread by @diviacaroline, Half the population without overwhelming the ICUs sounds extremely unlikely to me. [...]

Half the population without overwhelming the ICUs sounds extremely unlikely to me. I would bet against this. https://twitter.com/TaylorPearsonMe/status/1242593856014745601

https://twitter.com/TaylorPearsonMe/status/1242593856014745601

Evidence against tons of people being fully asymptomatic includes:

-diamond cruise ship
-Singapore, including the completeness of early contact tracing
-S Korean data
-analysis based on mutation speed
-the WHO report
-the shit show that is Iran
-Italian town that fully tested

I don’t see how to reconcile the idea that most people would never test positive on an ig test with this picture.

They filled in one missing person by using an antibody test.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid19-coronavirus-duke-nus-antibody-tests-12469184

I don’t know how much stock to put in analysis based on mutation rates. But it deserves some weight, right?

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242165438139621376?s=21 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242165438139621376

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242165438139621376?s=21

America or the U.K. have a lot of advantages over Iran, but if we let covid freely infect people, I would bet will have our own long list of prominent deaths.

If you think that wouldn’t happen here, why?

https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1239899644022394881?s=21 https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1239899644022394881

https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1239899644022394881?s=21

“The group of 645 first-responders and their families all tested negative. Two parties had a mild signal change, although not enough to change the negative test results. In some cases, this can indicate early seroconversion.” https://www.telluridenews.com/news/article_414e170c-6eed-11ea-8eae-0377aa65d030.html?fbclid=IwAR08vIrHSX4DvbiDctJiV8C8ZSSIpvGiPj8FHG2npb47a0mh0Q9jaERaPRQ

COVID-19 testing update

San Miguel County Department of Public Health and Environment received the results for the first group of those who had the COVID-19 ELISA blood test Tuesday, according to a news

https://www.telluridenews.com/news/article_414e170c-6eed-11ea-8eae-0377aa65d030.html?fbclid=IwAR08vIrHSX4DvbiDctJiV8C8ZSSIpvGiPj8FHG2npb47a0mh0Q9jaERaPRQ

https://twitter.com/tedfrank/status/1243451525348933633?s=21 https://twitter.com/tedfrank/status/1243451525348933633

https://twitter.com/tedfrank/status/1243451525348933633?s=21

“Not all the results from Iceland’s tests have come through yet, but the ones that have, show that half of all cases are asymptomatic (at the time of testing).”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zmescience.com/medicine/iceland-testing-covid-19-0523/amp/

Probably some of these people will eventually develop symptoms.

Iceland's testing suggests 50% of COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic

The small nation might have an important lesson about the pandemic.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zmescience.com/medicine/iceland-testing-covid-19-0523/amp/

This goes here too. I had forgotten.

https://twitter.com/abraarkaran/status/1236680331706675200?s=21 https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680331706675200