#COVID19 epidemic forecast, updated 24-3-2020:
Number of total confirmed cases for #Greece and #Italy are lying along the bisectrix of the corresponding exponential and parabolic trendlines.
(blue dashed line: x2/5days)
#coronavirus #menoumespiti #lockdowngr #COVID19greece

#COVID19 epidemic forecast, updated 25-3-2020:
My estimation is that the number of total confirmed cases for #Greece & #Italy are going to be close to 2K & 100K by April 15.
(Cyan dashed line: cases doubling every 5 days)
#coronavirus #menoumespiti #lockdowngr #COVID19greece

In all the previous graphs Italy is actually two weeks ahead and is going to hit 100K confirmed cases before the end of March while Greece will hit 2K in 20 days.

On the other hand, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is estimating under 1K cases for Greece and over 116K for Italy by the end of this month:
http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/docs/forecast/results_by_country/
#Greece. #COVIDー19 #COVID19 #coronavirus #menoumespiti #lockdowngr #COVID19greece

RKI graphs:
http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/docs/forecast/results_by_country/

Epidemic forecast for #Greece and #Italy, updated 26-3-2020
#coronavirus #menoumespiti #lockdowngr #COVID19greece

Ενδιαφέρον επιδημιολογικό μοντέλο SEIR του #COVID2019 outbreak στη Wuhan και της επίδρασης τόσο των μέτρων που λήφθηκαν όσο και της ευαίσθητοποίησης των πολιτών:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30117-X/fulltext

Το σύστημα λύνεται εύκολα με κώδικα RK-4 (Fortran)

Epidemic forecast for #Greece and #Italy, updated 14-4-2020:
Expecting the reported cases to cross down the parabolic trendlines and stabilize below 200k / 3k cases for Italy & Greece by May 15.
#coronavirus #menoumespiti #lockdowngr #COVID19greece