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We wasted February and the failure wasn't just from the administration. Many in media, too, fueled the complacency. Why? Because we don't know how to think about complex systems—something we must learn to get through this. I explain how. New piece from me. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/what-really-doomed-americas-coronavirus-response/608596/
I expect some resistance, especially from my friends in media. It's easier to fixate on the big problems with the administration. But one reason it's hard to get people to understand the problem now: up until March, the message from media was, chill, worry about the flu instead.
Yes. Many of the discussion in February of R0 and CFR were misguided.The problem was never really about that, though of course those matter but within a systems context. That's why all the flu comparisons were so inappropriate that they weren't even wrong. https://twitter.com/veropotes/status/1242444351265034242
One reason I highlight media failures in my article is that I watched with great frustration in February as people asked in local Facebook groups if they should travel—to Disneyland, to conferences—and decided to go as people shared these "worry about the flu, instead" articles.
Another reason I wrote this, even though I knew many in traditional media will not like it. The current messaging and discussion is still too simplistic and will not get us through all this. Stay home for few weeks isn't it. There are many trade-offs and complicated interactions.
For example, discussions of herd immunity, when to go back to work and how, the next waves, prioritizing risks, etc. all have to be had. The stock market isn't a humane priority or reason but there will be painful trade-offs and we have to talk about them. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1242266044418404352
By the way, here's my thread from January 29th about that NEJM paper mentioned in the article. More with similar findings came out right after that. That's what I mean, we wasted February. It was right there us but we kept hearing what about the flu. https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1222662053329924098
Thread from a month ago. 
https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1232352734990520331
https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1232352734990520331
It's going to be like the 2016 election, isn't it? Many journalists did amazing reporting since, but there really hasn't been any systematic reckoning among traditional media and punditry about their own role in all of it. (They'll talk about the tech part, though). So with this.
Yep. Lack of reflection among media and pundits that made all this so much worse is mindblowing. All of February, I watched people locally use those “what about the flu/travel bans don’t work/don’t overreact” articles to decide go on trips and conferences. https://twitter.com/jayrosen_nyu/status/1242647591990562816
Judging by the way everyone’s already ignoring how wrong and dangerously misleading so many liberal/traditional pundits/papers were up until early March, I say they will do fine. Every tribe is blind to themselves. https://twitter.com/amy_siskind/status/1242801225449562112
And even that was not a great question. Look, some of the people I'm criticizing here include my friends and circles. They're human, the mistakes are human but the problem is the things are set-up. Can't fix that without admitting failure. https://twitter.com/livebeef/status/1242853462209150977
I don't agree with everything in this piece, but it's good. I was alarmed in January and switched in February to try to warn people and get pundits to stop writing "what about the flu" and "don't panic" pieces and got lectured and/or failed. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-coronavirus.html
Look at the catastrophe unfolding in NYC. It will soon be perhaps the worst hit place globally, and it's not a coincidence that it's the center of exactly that kind of "what about the flu/don't panic" pundit-world/media. Yes it's hard to hear but this is not just a Trump failure.
US gov't failures are terrible and obvious and well-covered. But we also had NYC mayor and officials tell people to chill and enjoy their gatherings up until recently. People could've acted to save themselves like Hong Kong—and that's where media matters. https://twitter.com/protanope/status/1243218618755645442
I watched locally in February as people shared the "worry about the flu/don't panic" articles to keep doing very risky things: travel, conferences. My area is highly-educated. They trusted credible media. They avoided social media misinformation. And they thus endangered all.
Look, I gave a few examples, and I'm sorry to pick on people but honestly, I had to give examples because otherwise people immediately forget their own tribe's failings but those were not rare or terrible compared to average. They're just average. But where's the reflection?
Amount of effort people spent attacking one (yes sensationalist and stupid tweet but it was more right than those "what about the flu" pieces) compared with utter lack of reflection on, how on earth did we do that in February from traditional media/journalists is disconcerting.
I apologize for harsh words but too much at stake. We went through the Iraq war, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2016 election and now this. My friends in media excel at investigating Trump/MAGA failures and new media/tech issues but have to break their own blue wall of silence.
A terrible tragedy, in one of the greatest cities in the world. We already have failing governmental institutions. We have some of the best journalists in the world but US traditional media also has big structural failings we must reckon with. https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1243204226211180544
We already have failing governmental institutions. We have some of the best journalists in the world but US traditional media also has big structural failings we must reckon with. https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1243204226211180544
What about the flu, simplistic CFR/R0 discussions, don't panic, don't overreact, travel bans don't work, this effects the elderly like flu... Heard that so much in February. Now children are being denied surgery. This was predictable *and* predicted. https://twitter.com/ColumbiaSurgery/status/1243204604382400513
This was predictable *and* predicted. https://twitter.com/ColumbiaSurgery/status/1243204604382400513
Of course. This is true. Linking to another good piece to understand this failure. The warnings were seen as alarmism, and all alarmism was equated with disinformation. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-coronavirus.html https://twitter.com/scribandotcom/status/1243567094949498881
Yeah but what about the flu? This is why its was never, ever appropriate to compare it with the flu. If you overwhelm the system more people will die of.. the flu. And strep throat. And everything else. And we knew this was coming early Feb by latest. https://twitter.com/tom_winter/status/1243613770854928389
https://twitter.com/tom_winter/status/1243613770854928389
From February 1st, me trying to ask people to stop flu comparisons. (Screenshot, I’m not encouraging pileups here). I’m not blaming individuals, this was a widespread sentiment.
(Screenshot, I’m not encouraging pileups here). I’m not blaming individuals, this was a widespread sentiment.
Please don’t pile on but do read this honest thread from a Vox journalist who warned her family but didn’t feel comfortable sounding the alarm publicly. The public message was to falsely reassure. This kind of reflection is important—and hard. Thank you! https://twitter.com/kelseytuoc/status/1243301678301888512
Many weeks after my my mask-oped, finally seeing accurate pieces on masks. Why did it take so long? Why not before? My piece on media errors/complacency is part of the picture. Still too much herding and circling the wagons—and resistance to reflection. https://twitter.com/jayrosen_nyu/status/1242639141873111041
I wrote this in late February—there still wasn't any helpful pieces on why we needed to flatten the curve! Late February! Why not? (Can't find traditional media pieces before mine who explained the term—the phrase isn't mine, of course, it's well-known). https://twitter.com/writesaacson/status/1245336551292375040
Yesterday, I commented on something tech, and someone was like, what do you have to do with tech? Lol! I've been pandemic writing for months. He had no idea I do tech. I didn't want to write "flatten the curve" or "we need masks" pieces. But people who should and could weren't.
Forget reflection, I got weird pushback. @NateSilver538 was so mad about me writing about the complacent/lagging media message that he caricatured my position beyond recognition and told me to "sit this one out". Yet, I'll say it again: there should be a reckoning & hasn't been.
Yes. For example, we are finally seeing more coverage of asymptomatic transmission, in context of finally admitting the argument for masks. We had many many peer-reviewed papers on asymptomatic and non-feverish, atypical clinical presentation since Jan 29. https://twitter.com/hhavrilesky/status/1245362927630090242
More countries are switching to masks. Yeay! That's the good. If media had earlier dug into the science of masks and the experience of Asian countries that had been successful in containing this epidemic, we could have been here weeks ago. That's the bad. https://twitter.com/seaef/status/1245444646664355843
This is great! California! By the way, would love for CA issue guidelines for correct use and sanitization. It's good to say masks *in addition to* other measures. But I have yet to see a single convincing study of "incorrect" use being worse than no mask. https://twitter.com/covidperspectiv/status/1245438129974083584
My prediction is that, until vaccines, we will go through waves where we necessarily relax social isolation but masks will help a lot during those intermittent periods. How much is an empirical question but Japan—screwing up everything else but masks—suggests it is a great deal.
Another city. 
https://twitter.com/katunews/status/1245520621758382080
https://twitter.com/katunews/status/1245520621758382080
