The death rate is not going to be 2.5% if we all go back to work.

The death rate in Wuhan was 12% when their hospitals were overwhelmed.

12%. You read that right.

That is why they built hospitals in days and medics from across China came to help.

#NotDying4WallStreet

In an uncontrolled epidemic with no medical effective care, this virus has a case mortality 12%.

So if we have 327 million Americans, and 12% of them die because of overwhelmed hospitals, we are looking at 39 million deaths.

39 million. In the USA alone

#StayTheFuckAtHome

2/ Since Trump is suggesting that we all go back to work while keeping older people at home, here are some numbers to consider:

66% of Americans are under 50 -> 216 million
If we let #COVID-19 go hog-wild, then 70% will be infected in ~3 months = 151 million

3/ Using CDC numbers based on ~2500 Americans infected, in the 20-44 age group, 2-4% needed ICU admission -> 3 million ICU admissions in young people over the course of 3 months

4/ Ballpark: 1 in 4 of these ICU patients need ventilators -> 755,000 young people will need ventilators.

Once a person is on a ventilator they are on it for 2-6 weeks (this is a really long illness).

That means one ventilator can treat maybe 4 young people over 3 months

5/ We have ~160,000 ventilators. That means maybe 640,000 young people can get one. But half of these will die (general number of mortality once intubated with this disease-Guan study).

6/ So 320,000 young people will die on the vent, and 115,000 young people die due to not even being able to get on a ventilator

-> 435,000 people under the age of 50 may die.

That is a ballpark estimate, but we need to understand what sort of numbers that we are dealing with.

7/ Just for comparison:

58,000 Americans died in Vietnams
405,000 Americans died in WW2.

And we just assumed that we will let everyone over 50 just get better on their own or die at home.

Listening to Trump will be a colossal mistake.