We were at 300 in Canada last Sunday... the exponential trend line in my spreadsheet had us just below 800 by today.

Today we are 1400.

The line says just over 4500 by next Sunday.

#selfisolate #covid19 #shutdowncanada

In case a lot of people end up seeing this, please note I'm just a guy with a spreadsheet.

The numbers are here:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html?topic=tilelink

I have no expertise and this is just an interesting way to occupy the mind in stressful times.
Please #SelfIsolate
#COVID19
#FlattenTheCurve

March 23 followup.

Jumps on the prairies, especially Saskatchewan.

BC seems to be backing off a bit, but not enough to reverse trend.

Quebec has 400 “probable” cases, but I am only using the “confirmed” number, so expect a big jump from them in the coming days.
#covid19

March 24:
Canada remains on the curve upward... BC does seem to be slowing a little but might just be because of catch up last week. Ontario and Quebec and combination of several other provinces combine for increases. Lots in the pipe. ISOLATE.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html

March 25:
Quebec! Come on mon amis! Always gotta be a little different. Their big jump throws things off a bit.

I have also included the epidemiological curve (by date of symptoms). It lags behind the reported cases. Only 1600 analyzed so far, thus the flat end.

March 26:
The step-change from Quebec has made the graph a little wacky but that'll resolve itself in time.
I've added a graph from B.C. showing a potentially positive trend in hospitalization. Likely too early but it is hopeful.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html?topic=tilelink

March 27: 1/3
Dr. Henry and Minister Dix put on a model show and it was pretty great for us nerds! Check out the slides here:
https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/COVID19_Technical_Briefing_Condensed.pdf

The take away for me particularly from the attached graph (+closeup) was that we're doing OK. Not quite as well as South Korea.

2/3
Canada as a nation is a little behind where BC is. But we're doing ok! We need to keep it up, and probably tighten up some more to really 'plank the curve' but we can get there.

BC has 348 ventilators now and hopefully 120 more coming. That is the really critical number.

3/3 Running out of ventilators means terrifying decisions.

Right now, if we don't go too much more above SthKr, we could be OK, particularly if we get those extras.

But it really is a knife edge. If we lose control now, it's bad.

Here are my numbers. They're less cool now.

Addendum: On the 2nd tweet I said BC has 348 ventilators. It should say "across its' large hospitals".

March 29:
I started this thread a week ago. The spreadsheet said we'd see 4500 today.

A big jump in QC as it ramped up testing (like B.C. before) got us to: 5373

I added graphs for %.

1st shows all big values as provinces ramp up. 2nd zooms into normal day to day increases.

Realized the main graph with cases was incorrectly formatted. Here's a proper version of that graph for March 29.

Still waiting for today's numbers.

March 30:
All the numbers in for provinces. Most encouraging is BC which even though it was a 48hr period over the weekend, only registered 10% increase.

PEI had highest increase today but had not reported new cases since the 27th.

ON/QC are concerns.

Canada as a whole 18%.

March 31:
Both BC and AB (light/dark blue) are quite a bit *below* the exponential line which should indicate slowing of new cases. (yay)

Canada should reach 10,000 tomorrow. (boo :( )

Quebec and Ontario still over 15% daily growth = source of big numbers = Canada overall 16%.

PS. I really like the "rings" it makes me think of the "hammer and bell" carnival games, or the ones with the squirt guns. :D
​ https://gph.is/2crVHZT  via @GIPHY
btw: Data is always from PHAC

April 1: Canada thankfully didn't break 10K but should tomorrow. Doubling every 5 days.

ON only province tracking just above its exponential trend but QC is a concern. AB, BC, SK tracking well below.

Daily % stabilizing. (Better, consistent data).

KEEP ISOLATING

Note for BC folks, the PHAC data only had an increase of 10 between Mar 30 and 31 then a big jump to the announced numbers today. To remain consistent I used the PHAC numbers which gave a 1.0%/9.9% increase rather than 5.5%/5.2% from the announced numbers.

April 2:
Every province except Ontario seems to be moving below the exponential line.
We'll see what they say tomorrow. Quebec remains concerning due to the sheer number. Both provinces together could overwhelm not only their own, but the entire nations' system.
#KeepIsolating

April 3:
ON remains the focus. The only province with more than 10% growth in cases and the assumption is it is under-counting. QC is double the number in ON.

The better news is Canada as a whole edged only 11% higher. Keep planking that curve folks and have a great weekend!

April 5: 1/3
I started this thread two weeks ago. For three Sundays in a row, the exponential lines "under-predicted" the following Sunday for Canadian cases (this is not a model! Just a spreadsheet).

I think today the spreadsheet might be over-predicting for the first time.

2/3 Todays charts give me hope. The data marks are trending below the exponential lines, maybe even Ontario. (pic 1 and 4)

If Canada was still on an exponential track we would have 75,000 by next Sunday! (pic2) But I am hopeful.

The daily increases seem to be dropping. (pic3)

3/3 We gotta keep #PhysicalDistancing and #selfisolating.

I am still really worried for Ontario and Quebec especially.

Things could go really bad really quickly.

And all the other provinces could easily get out of hand too if we let up.

Keep it up everyone! We got this!

P.S. As always:
1) I am just a guy with a spreadsheet. Please listen to the experts!

2) All data comes from PHAC.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html?topic=tilelink#a1

3) New PHAC link is cool. https://phac-aspc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/e968bf79f4694b5ab290205e05cfcda6

4) Take care. Stay positive. Love your friends and neighbours.

We're all #InItTogether

April 6:

Canadian cases starting to bend away from those exponential lines?

We won't know for sure for days, or weeks, and as we have seen with BC, even if it is bending, cases can still keep rising. We are still on a knife's edge.

Keep working at it everyone!

April 7: 1/2
Interesting today.

Canada curve, driven by QC/ON appears to be bending away from the exponential line like BC and AB did last week. However, AB cases have overtaken BC.

Nearly all provinces daily increases consistently under 10%.

7.4% increase nationally.

And if you missed the BC update. Here's today's chart.

Keep at it everyone, we're gettin' it. :)

April 8: 1/2

Not a lot of change in the trends. All provinces increasing at less than 15%. Canada as a whole has been 7% for three straight days.

Some interesting moves in smaller provinces. AB seems to have overtaken BC and NS is well above SK

And here's the BC update from earlier. Still stubbornly bouncing along that 500 active case mark.

April 9:
1/2
Trends are generally OK.

I added a new chart. PHAC changed the Epidemiological data (note: that data is delayed) to only include daily additions so I recreated that chart to include both daily and cumulative with the potential exponential line to compare.

And here's the BC update if you missed it earlier.

Come on folks, it's the long weekend, it's beautiful outside, we need to stay home as much as possible.

We are doing well. We need to keep it up. Don't let this weekend ruin it!

#COVID19 #selfisolating #SocialDistance

April 10:
1/2
As the curves have changed a little (yay) but are still rising (boo), I have tried using a polynomial fit line for the provinces (2nd pic) to see if it better follows the current trends.

In general, Canada is below 7% increase. ON and QC still highest but dropping.

2/2 And here's the BC Update.

Really hoping this long weekend doesn't mess stuff up.

We will not see results from this weekends 'interactions' until probably around April 22nd.

Don't let up folks. https://twitter.com/chrisalecanada/status/1248745001938386944

April 12:
Seems like more than just 3 Sunday's ago when I started this. We were on an exponential trend as provinces and a country.

We aren't now.

But we are still rising consistently. The curve is flattening but it's not flat.

We can do this Canada. #selfisolate
Happy Easter.

April 13:
The daily increase for the country is just 5.2%.

Six Provinces, BC, SK, MB, NB, PEI and NL are now below 2%.

This is all good news. I changed my percentage chart so it only shows changes less than 15%. You can see the downward trend.

Hoping we can keep going.

1/n April 15:
Skipped a day to create a new type of chart. Let me know what you think.

There are some interesting trends forming as the national curve flattens.

We have heard from multiple officials, every province and region will have its own epidemic.

#covid19Canada

2/n April 15: We are seeing that now. ON and QC seem to have similar trends. But the smaller provinces have many varying paths.

BC and a few others are moving quite slowly now.

The most concerning though might be AB (dk blue) and Nova Scotia (grey).
(This after AB donated PPE?)

3/n April 15:
Here are two new charts that show the number of additional cases in each province stacked every day.

It does a reasonable job of highlighting which provinces are seeing the most cases day to day.

Again, of late, Alberta and Nova Scotia stick out.

4/End April 15:
Finally here's today's BC Chart which does seem to be headed downward in hospitalizations but still is concerning due to the consistent rise in active cases.

Still need vigilance.

Take care all.
#covid19Canada

Addendum:

Important thread emerging here from @j_mcelroy on the number of recovered reported in BC. Numbers have stalled for a week from Vancouver Health, the largest region. So the number of recovered, and active, must be inaccurate since then. https://twitter.com/j_mcelroy/status/1250662764013469696