One of the biggest problems in this environment is that nobody possess /the/ answer. One of the most visibly reasonable people so far in this situation has been Dr Fauci and almost every single statement is wrapped in several layers of expressions of uncertainty.

The media /

is schizophrenic. The same outlet over the course of just a few hours can put out antithetical pieces of information and then later reference the one that was more accurate to claim they're the one to turn to as a source of authentic information.

We, individually and /

collectively are not able to sort through this bombardment with any sanity. I made the statement yesterday, mocked by @PsychPLockwood, that any sufficient action to quell such a virulent epidemic would be indistinguishable from overreaction. This is very much a true statement /

If you take the action necessary to stop this dead in its tracks, there will be no existing evidence to show everyone that it would have been as bad as you claimed. You can see this play out in real time today - those claiming that there is /absolutely/ no need to take the /

possible drastic actions that are seemingly on the table. If such actions are taken, and we are successful, it will be indistinguishable from overreaction for those people, because the worst was prevented.

If we take drastic action and are not as successful, the weighing /

of the costs and benefits will be too convoluted to evaluate. /maybe/ all the costs we incurred with action were made up in the costs we prevented. But /maybe/ we would have been better served with the original costs we were facing and focused our energy on other /

incurred costs where we could have more marginal success. The action will still be indistinguishable from overreaction.

The only ones for which it would not be indistinguishable are those for which it is impossible to overreact.

But remember that the most reasonable person /

visible right now has been the one expressing several layers of uncertainty in everything he has been saying.

Everything you read will be subject to change. Every single medical doctor who has a medical opinion on a course of action certainly has better knowledge than /

Aunt Jackie but doesn't necessarily have the knowledge to navigate the complex territory we have.

"Experts" can be found to say anything you want if you look hard enough. And if credentials arent authoritative then you are forced to resort to dervatives; /

People who have opinions on which experts have validity and which ones don't. And those people voicing opinions on which experts have validity and which ones do not do not have expertise in validating experts in other fields.

At the end of the day, nobody knows the totality of /

what is happening and what is not happening. Nobody knows the absolute best set of choices to make, the existing hurdles blocking those choices from being successful, how to navigate effectively executing those choices.

We are all trying, as flawed as we all are, to navigate /

this terrain. There are major, irreversible changes for every single set of decisions in front of us. On an individual and collective level. Our best hope is to individually and collectively choose from among set of them that aren't the worst.

This was always a loss minimizing/

operation. This was never one that was going to be a net gain, even if there are going to be important lessons learned that make us stronger in the future.

/

Grant us the serenity to accept the things we cannot change; The courage to change the things we can; And the wisdom to know the difference.