THREAD:
More from my groovy hubby - he does the math in our family.
1) I notice a lot of people talking today about Covid-19 mortality rates 'only' being around 1%. I'll counter with a bit of Sam Greene and some math.

2) The average person has a social circle of 200-300 people, give or take. So if you're cool with zero precautions.. right here, right now, name out as a response to this comment the 2-3 people you are prepared to kill off that list.

3) The major issue with Covid-19 is that it appears to be much more infectious than the flu is. This has always been the issue with it; the mortality rate will always vary with any disease, and posting those numbers is just a way to shock people into acting.

4) Let me repeat that because it is worth it: MORTALITY NUMBERS ARE JUST A MEANS TO SHOCK PEOPLE. That's not always a bad thing, though; especially in this age, people often need a shock to be galvanized into action, myself included.

5) But back to infectiousness, that's where the math comes in. YAY MATH. Let's say the flu has an infectiousness rating of 2; if you ignore it, and do your normal thing, you will probably pass it on to 2 other people.

6) Best estimates on Covid-19 thus far put it more around a 6 due to the resilience of the virus to outside factors and ability to live on surfaces without a host for an extended period.

7) The formula for predicting spread based on these numbers should be, I believe, (X-1)^Y, with X being the number of generations you want to check out, and Y being the infectiousness number. The -1 is because you always start with just yourself.

8) So for the flu, gen 1 is me. Gen 2 is 2 others. Gen 3 is 4 others. Gen 4 is 4 others. And so on.

Now do it out to 10 generations. The flu has now infected 512 people. Covid-19 has now infected.. wait for it.. 10,077,969 people.

9) THIS is what people are talking about; this is the 'curve' you hear people talking about. THIS is also how all biological agents work in this regard. THIS is why you need to nip it in the bud while numbers are still low.

10) This is also just basic fucking math; it has no spin, it has no bias, IT'S JUST MATH. Also note that this is how pyramid schemes work, and they are just as fucking deadly, so say no to them as well. :|

11) In closing, lowering mortality rates are a good thing, yes, but they don't mean people should be complacent yet. Be smart. Don't panic, don't let them take away your liberty, but also don't be lazy just to get back to the way things were.

12) If it helps, DO compare it to the flu. Think about the worst flu you ever had. The week (at least) of sitting at home, feeling miserable, retching, high fever, all of it.

13) Then picture the ENTIRE WORLD, EVERY PERSON, IN THAT SAME STATE AT THE SAME TIME. It's not a nice picture and it would be almost as bad.