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I am not planning to scare you, but in these times, we need abundant caution, because so much morons are around prescribing cow piss, sun rays, placebo medicines and clapping to contain the #CoronaVirus.
So let us see how maths says about our scenario...just listen to science!
So let us see how maths says about our scenario...just listen to science!
I started to collect the information of infections from various websites and trackers pertaining to India.
The virus was first found in Kerala, India on 30/01, it was reached a fig of 3 on 2/02.
#Kerala made all effort to contain it and no further cases rported till 1/03.
The virus was first found in Kerala, India on 30/01, it was reached a fig of 3 on 2/02.
#Kerala made all effort to contain it and no further cases rported till 1/03.
So we can have a logical and reasonable assumption that these imported #CoronaVirus cases to Kerala was not locally transmitted or reached the level of community transmission till 1/03, as the window was more than 4 weeks.
So I decided not to add these while doing the projection
So I decided not to add these while doing the projection
I take the cases from 1/03 to 21/03 and done the regression analysis to see the best fit line using the exponential curve to do the projections.
R square value got is 0.8897, which is fairly closer to 1 and showing a reasonably good consistency
R square value got is 0.8897, which is fairly closer to 1 and showing a reasonably good consistency
Between 1/03 to 21/03, the cases rise from 3 to 315 (took the latest data by ICMR as of yesterday 6 PM).
The nature of the infections, meantime changed from import to local transmission to community spread.
Growth also resembled an exponential curve, though testing was v.less
The nature of the infections, meantime changed from import to local transmission to community spread.
Growth also resembled an exponential curve, though testing was v.less
I drawn my graph based on the values reporting from the India by the Government agencies and first done a projection for March 25th and March 31st.
The best fit for Mar 21 is 332, while actual is 315, v. close
So Mar 25 will be 704
& Mar 31 will be 2167
NOW.............
The best fit for Mar 21 is 332, while actual is 315, v. close
So Mar 25 will be 704
& Mar 31 will be 2167
NOW.............
So, let us assume that the same projection is continued up to May 1st, we may have around 6 lakh infections....
assuming that the same rate continued and the virus grow unabated.
assuming that the same rate continued and the virus grow unabated.
If the same rate continues, till June first, we will have around 16.6 crores infections!
It looks so scary and unimaginable...That is what the models of US scientists and epidemiologists warn us, they are saying we may hit with 20%-60% our population may hit with by July.
It looks so scary and unimaginable...That is what the models of US scientists and epidemiologists warn us, they are saying we may hit with 20%-60% our population may hit with by July.
Instead of clapping hands, please take 50 minutes of your time in this curfew day and listen to the scientific wisdom rather than WA forwards.
Then ask QNs, how much we are prepared for the inevitable! https://twitter.com/jamewils/status/1240466413241937922?s=19">https://twitter.com/jamewils/...
Then ask QNs, how much we are prepared for the inevitable! https://twitter.com/jamewils/status/1240466413241937922?s=19">https://twitter.com/jamewils/...
This fine 10 questions to the Government are formulated by the best of the health reporters.
But neither Govt nor the PM do care to answer it, instead busy with printing propaganda literature for the ones in quarantine!
Panna Pramukhs are doing cover up https://twitter.com/jamewils/status/1240867537086066688?s=19">https://twitter.com/jamewils/...
But neither Govt nor the PM do care to answer it, instead busy with printing propaganda literature for the ones in quarantine!
Panna Pramukhs are doing cover up https://twitter.com/jamewils/status/1240867537086066688?s=19">https://twitter.com/jamewils/...
I done a similar exercise during demonetisation and that is why you all started following me.
I seen eerie similarities here about the preparedness, transparency and response between both demonetisation and #CoronaVirus https://twitter.com/jamewils/status/1241212895054028800?s=19">https://twitter.com/jamewils/...
I seen eerie similarities here about the preparedness, transparency and response between both demonetisation and #CoronaVirus https://twitter.com/jamewils/status/1241212895054028800?s=19">https://twitter.com/jamewils/...
Read this #thread carefully, to understand what is awaiting us!
Or you can take refuge in WhatsApp forwards that our ancient wisdom of cow piss to yoga to clapping of plates, yep, the latest invention by versatile genius will scare #CoronaVirus https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/1236736335794167808?s=19">https://twitter.com/MichaelCo...
Or you can take refuge in WhatsApp forwards that our ancient wisdom of cow piss to yoga to clapping of plates, yep, the latest invention by versatile genius will scare #CoronaVirus https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/1236736335794167808?s=19">https://twitter.com/MichaelCo...
So please read it slowly taking your own time instead of scrolling & ponder to understand the apocalypse waiting to hit us!
Unfortunately we are having at the helm of affairs the most anti-science, callous, irresponsible, propaganda obsessed ones!
Hope I am cynical & wrong!
Unfortunately we are having at the helm of affairs the most anti-science, callous, irresponsible, propaganda obsessed ones!
Hope I am cynical & wrong!
Now if you want to share this on Facebook or WhatsApp as a single link..here it is https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1241579767817588736.html">https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/12...
