1 China report the zero new confirmed case today. I am stuck at Wuhan since January 23rd and would like to briefly share my experience so far on how Wuhan fight to control the first wave of coronavirus. https://twitter.com/billbirtles/status/1240457965347295232
2 Wuhan made many mistakes at the beginning on January like silencing doctor who warns the public, hosting a dinner where 40 thousands people share foods, and optimistically claims by CDC officials Fu Gao that "it is controllable, no human to human transmission".
3 These kinds of mistakes leads Wuhan into a dare situation with corona virus outbreak and hospitals are overwhelming. Glad the central government realize the seriousness of the situation and lock down Wuhan city on Jan 23rd.
4 Late January, due the hospitals are very overwhelming, hospitals only have limited number of beds. Wuhan can only test 200 cases per day. Only critical condition patients are allowed to test and moved into hospital. Sometimes, even critical patients can not have a bed.
5 They only test severe patient and let suspect patents to do home quarantine since hospital are quite full. This turns out to not work well at Wuhan. It normally if one member got infected, the whole family will get infected pretty soon.
6 There is almost always one member in a family with severe condition. If leave the mild patent at home, it will more likely spread to a family member who need hospitalized. it does not reduce the load of hospital. Also each day there are countless people looking for help online.
7 Normally a mild patient family member goes with a severe family member to visit multiple hospitals but no hospital has the resources for them. It is hard to estimate how many people died without confirmed. Remember this dark time is late January and early Feb at Wuhan.
8 There are a few chance mild patient can suddenly go into severe condition into a short period of time and most of young people fatality are mostly due to this since it takes time for people at home to go to hospital and equipped with ventilator.
9 China begin to mobilize whole country's medical resources to Wuhan. It builds two hospitals in two weeks. Quite amazing. At that time, there are less than 3000 confirmed cases. https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1224115279212363776?s=20
10 News reported that Wuhan can test 2000 cases in a single day but it seems still enough. Many people still can not get tested and looks help online. Multiple other provinces doctors and nurses have transferred to Wuhan to fight with this virus.
11 The aggressive massive testing and isolation on people who infected or suspected are key to success to slow the spread down.
12 The speed of testing they improves from early 200 a day to 2000 a day, and now Wuhan a single city can do 20 thousands test in a single day. The whole China can do 100 thousands test in a single day.
13 Wuhan is quite like a computer system with doctors as CPU, nurses as registers, ICU beds as L1 cache, general hospital beds with ventilators as L2 cache, and we also have L3 cache on makeshift hospitals, DRAM for isolation hotels for suspect patients, and last home as disk.
14 Wuhan ICU beds and hospital beds are not enough so they build two hospitals in two weeks with like 2000+ beds for severe patients. They aggressively change stadium as makeshift hospitals for mild patients.
15 SUPPOSE i am a patient. I will first report to my community that my temperature is not normal. Then they will send somebody to my home to get the swab. And may also transfer me to their isolation hotel for suspect patient if my symptoms are really suspected.
16 The result can be back in 4 hours for nucleus testing. If confirmed, and i am mild i will go to the makeshift hospitals who offer free medicine and free food to attract mild patient to go there for treatment.
16 They closely monitor mild patients like blood oxygen saturation at makeshift hospitals. And also lead those mild patients to do some exercise to identify who may go severe. if patient get severe, they will transfer him to normal hospital with ventilators and ECMOs.
17 These several level of computer caching systems are a key method for them to reduce the load to hospital and this turns out to work at Wuhan. It is also due to China has migrated almost 1/3 of medical staffs to Wuhan to fight corona virus there.
18 Most of people stay at home and if they need to go outside, go with a face mask. Face mask does help since this virus transmits by "droplet transmission, aerosol transmission in confined space, and possibly faecal oral transmission". Face mask can protect aerosol transmission
19 Wuhan mobilizes community level officials to work and does require some level of violences if infected people do not cooperate. It is hard for other countries to copy. But i think SK's way may be the democratic countries can refer. Massive testing and isolation is the key.
20 Currently except Wuhan, other parts of China has moved the focus to imported cases from other countries. They require every traveller to quarantine for two weeks. And if they are from heavy infected region it is not allowed home quarantine but strictly quarantine at a hotel.
21 Given the fact of this high contagious of this virus, it is probably not possible to stop it completely. The fatality rate depends highly on how overwhelming the medical facilities. Slowing the spread of virus to keep it below the medical capacity is the goal.
22 If want to exceed, keep less infected until a vaccine or an efficient medicine come out, less people will die.
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