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I’m a DATA guy. Lots of DOOM and GLOOM bad info on #COVID19 out there predicting as many as 3 Million American deaths.
The DATA does not support that! A thread…
1/9
The DATA does not support that! A thread…
1/9
Before I talk about all the positives, let me first say THIS IS SERIOUS. You need to take #COVID19 very seriously and implement social distancing. My annoyance comes from those who are creating unnecessary chaos and panic. We know this is beatable. Here is why & how…
2/9
2/9
These are China's numbers. They were the first country to get #COVID19, so we can learn a lot from them and these graphs:
Notice:
1. Confirmed cases stabilized at ~80K
2. Active cases are rapidly declining!
3. New cases are as low as 30/day now!
Extreme measures work!
3/9
Notice:
1. Confirmed cases stabilized at ~80K
2. Active cases are rapidly declining!
3. New cases are as low as 30/day now!
Extreme measures work!
3/9
China is slowly going back to normal after implementing extreme measures for #COVID19. They have now shut down temporary hospitals, they are re-opening facilities, etc. and new cases are well under control. All in under 60 days of extreme measures.
Let's move to Italy...
4/9
Let's move to Italy...
4/9
Italy's confirmed #COVID19 cases appear to be growing exponentially with no end in sight. But remember, each day's new confirmed cases are based on spread that happened up to 10 days prior!
So while this growth graph looks bad, we have to look at the new case graph...
5/9
So while this growth graph looks bad, we have to look at the new case graph...
5/9
Italy has implemented increasing measures for social distancing, travel bans, etc. And guess what? It's already working! NEW cases in Italy appear to have stabilized at just over 3,000!
And remember, these people got it as long as 10 days ago! It will get even better soon!
6/9
And remember, these people got it as long as 10 days ago! It will get even better soon!
6/9
Plus, there's other good news: Mortality rate of #COVID19 is likely A LOT lower than we fear because most cases go undiagnosed.
However, the DEATHS are diagnosed. To get mortality rate we are dividing: [DEATHS] / [KNOWN CASES].
But actual rate is: [DEATHS] / [ALL CASES]
7/9
However, the DEATHS are diagnosed. To get mortality rate we are dividing: [DEATHS] / [KNOWN CASES].
But actual rate is: [DEATHS] / [ALL CASES]
7/9
