The future is more uncertain than I've ever seen, but we still need to plan, whether for our businesses, our careers, or our families. How? There is a tool that can help: so here is a short thread on scenario planning a way of thinking under uncertainty. Start with a question 1/8

Next, you need to understand the forces driving the answer to the question by getting smart fast. One way to do this is to look at what experts say. Twitter has made finding experts easier than ever, so lists like this one are a good place to start. 2/8 https://twitter.com/i/lists/1220869298631200769?s=20

You also can follow @GreatDismal's maxim that "the future is already here, just not evenly distributed" to look for where the future has already happened. In this case, looking at the stats from China. McKinsey has a useful list of key factors to consider. 3/8

Use what you learned to determine what the STEEP trends are in the space, and what form they will take. We are all thinking a lot about the exponential infection curve, but there are other trends to consider - the business cycle, the diffusion of new products... 4/8

One important trend shape to consider in response to the virus is the s-curve: it shows how technologies evolve. We are being forced to use technologies from many s-curves in our socially distant present (from video chat to delivery apps) with many gaps 5/ https://twitter.com/emollick/status/1166193628714360833?s=20

Now it is time to create scenarios for our trends. Usually you pick two. For example: what if we go back to work soon/don't go back until August? What if government props up the economy/doesn't do that successfully? 6/

Then you come up with a story for each of the four quadrants. For example, scenario A in the previous tweet might be titled "Just a Blip"- government intervention stabilizes the economy, people go back to work, and it is like an early summer vacation. Scenarios B-D are less rosy.

Now test your plans across all four scenarios. Think about how you will know which one is happening, and how you will react. Scenarios are not an oracle - you are not actually predicting the future - but they are a way of thinking about your plans across many possible worlds. 8/8

For more on scenario planning, including how it helps you think about the future and it’s limits, this article is quite good. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-use-and-abuse-of-scenarios