Thread by @ChaseSova, Some information starting to emerge on how #COVID19 #coronavirus could impact global [...]

Some information starting to emerge on how #COVID19 #coronavirus could impact global #foodsecurity. Here is my personal take:

THREAD 1/16

Former @IFPRI DG, @ShenggenFan: "COVID-19 is a health crisis. But it could also lead to a food security crisis if proper measures are not taken.”

He's right.

Ebola, SARS, MERS all had direct & indirect negative impacts on food security.

See: https://www.ifpri.org/blog/preventing-global-food-security-crisis-under-covid-19-emergency

2/16

Preventing global food security crisis under COVID-19 emergency

Averting a global food security crisis precipated by the COVID-19 epidemic will require monitoring food prices, ensuring global and local food chains function properly, innovating ways to keep sales

https://www.ifpri.org/blog/preventing-global-food-security-crisis-under-covid-19-emergency

COVID-19 poses a great threat to nations with pervasive poverty & poor healthcare infrastructure. Most of world's hungry people live in these same places.

While the virus has been slow to spread to sub-Saharan Africa, its impact is imminent.

See: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236760-we-dont-know-why-so-few-covid-19-cases-have-been-reported-in-africa/

3/16

We don't know why so few covid-19 cases have been reported in Africa | New Scientist

Experts still don't know why so few coronavirus cases have been reported in Africa, despite the continent’s large population and China being its top trading partner

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236760-we-dont-know-why-so-few-covid-19-cases-have-been-reported-in-africa/

As of March 16th, at least 25 countries in Africa have reported confirmed cases of COVID-19.

See: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

4/16

Africa’s 1.2 billion people face the highest percentage of undernourishment on the planet, affecting over 20% of the population.

COVID-19 has proved especially deadly for health-compromised individuals. This will include people suffering from severe malnourishment.

5/16

It is believed that the survival rate from Ebola was affected by what healthcare workers call “preceding nutritional status” or the baseline nutritional health of people affected by the virus.

We know this to be true of HIV patients as well.

See: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/137425/9789241508056_eng.pdf

6/16

Refugee populations in close proximity to one another and lacking adequate medical facilities are at especially elevated risk from COVID-19.

@UNHCR reports over 25m refugees today, many in camps in developing countries.

See: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/11/814473308/opinion-refugees-are-especially-vulnerable-to-covid-19-dont-ignore-their-needs

7/16

Opinion: Refugees Are Especially Vulnerable To COVID-19. Don't Ignore Their Needs

While there are no known cases yet of coronavirus in refugee camps, the disease may hit these communities hard, warns Muhammad H. Zaman of Boston University — and it's urgent to mitigate risk.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/11/814473308/opinion-refugees-are-especially-vulnerable-to-covid-19-dont-ignore-their-needs

COVID-19 poses a great threat to nations lacking robust social safety nets. In the U.S., steps have already been taken to help kids maintain access to school meals.

These safety nets simply don't exist in exist in many developing countries.

8/16

In fact, less than 20 percent of people living in low-income countries have access to social protections of any kind.

See @WorldBank's work on this here: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/427871521040513398/pdf/124300-PUB-PUBLIC.pdf

9/16

COVID-19 may cause breaks in food supply chains, food shortages and food price spikes.

During the Ebola outbreak in 2014, the price of some staple foods in West African increased by over 100 percent.

See: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-disrupts-staple-crop-production-impact-food-security1/

10/16

If coronavirus disrupts staple crop production the impact on food security could be grave

The novel coronavirus pneumonia (Covid-19) outbreak that began in Wuhan, in Hubei province, China has quickly spread to at least 75 other countries, causing more than 3,000 deaths.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-disrupts-staple-crop-production-impact-food-security1/

While food supplies & prices have remained stable to-date (staple prices are even down slightly), animal feed & high-value food product supply chains are being affected.

Broader supply breaks are likely.

See this from @RobVos26 & team @IFPRI: https://www.ifpri.org/blog/covid-19-spreads-no-major-concern-global-food-security-yet

11/16

As COVID-19 spreads, no major concern for global food security yet

If it happens, a global economic slowdown would hit the poor in developing countries particularly hard.

https://www.ifpri.org/blog/covid-19-spreads-no-major-concern-global-food-security-yet

The food price spikes of 2007/8 show that export restrictions, market speculation & panic behavior were, in part, responsible for the dramatic increase in global food prices in that period.

We are not protected against these measures today.

See: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/6103.pdf

12/16

In developing countries, many families already spend upwards of half of their income on food. Countries that rely heavily on imported food to meet demand—including sub-Saharan Africa—face disproportionate risk from supply chain failures.

13/16

COVID-19 may cause the global economy to slow or fall into recession, exacerbating extreme poverty and hunger.

@OECD has has dramatically revised their projections for global GDP growth this year.

See: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/business/economy/global-economy-coronavirus.html

14/16

Global Economic Policymakers Scramble as Coronavirus Threatens Growth

Economists slashed growth forecasts, and officials rushed to put a floor under the impending damage.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/business/economy/global-economy-coronavirus.html

We know from the latest #SOFI report that economic decline, poverty and food insecurity often accompany one another.

"Hunger has increased in many countries where the economy has slowed down or contracted."

See: https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000106763/download/?_ga=2.148785906.454478674.1584113625-1018911202.1579039603

15/16

Entering 2020, the number of hungry and malnourishment people around the world was already on the rise. COVID-19, risks frustrating the efforts of humanitarian and food security organizations seeking to reverse these trends.

Let's keep diligent.

END 16/16

All of this #COVID19 #foodsecurity information in one spot at @WFPUSA.

https://www.wfpusa.org/articles/covid-19-and-global-food-security/

COVID-19 and the 5 Major Threats it Poses to Global Food Security - World Food Program USA

Less than 20 percent of people living in low-income countries have access to social protections of any kind, and even fewer have access to food-based safety nets.

https://www.wfpusa.org/articles/covid-19-and-global-food-security/

More on #COVID19 #foodsecurity from @WFP’s Chief Economist, Arif Husain ( @WFPChiefEcon):

https://insight.wfp.org/how-to-minimize-the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-food-security-be2fa7885d7e

How to minimize the impact of Coronavirus on food security

Avoiding protectionism, monitoring prices and supporting the vulnerable through social safety nets can limit the impact of the outbreak

https://insight.wfp.org/how-to-minimize-the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-food-security-be2fa7885d7e

Will keep these coming on this thread:

Another good resource on #COVID19 and global #foodsecurity from @USAID's Bureau for Resilience and Food Security.

https://www.agrilinks.org/post/coronavirus-and-implications-food-systems-and-policy

Coronavirus and the Implications for Food Systems and Policy

Looking to past viruses as well as China’s handling of COVID-19 might help guide future responses in public policy and programming.

https://www.agrilinks.org/post/coronavirus-and-implications-food-systems-and-policy

As Malaysia restricts travel from #COVID19, Singapore considers its #foodsecurity prospects. Some panic buying at supermarkets.

The country, which imports 90% of its food, has stockpiled food for three months and has diversified its trading partners.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/the-people-in-singapore-will-not-go-hungry-food-security-expert

Malaysia coronavirus lockdown: Food security strategies put to test,

Environment News -As an island nation which imports more than 90 per cent of its food, Singapore has been well aware of its vulnerability to global food supply shocks.. Read more at straitstimes.com.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/environment/the-people-in-singapore-will-not-go-hungry-food-security-expert

Despite the title of this piece, reasons to be optimistic about #COVID19 & #foodsecurity in sub-Saharan Africa:

1) Youngest population on earth
2) Many rural, sparsely populated areas
3) Not transmitted through livestock
4) High temps may slow virus

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/ticking-time-bomb-scientists-worry-about-coronavirus-spread-africa

‘A ticking time bomb’: Scientists worry about coronavirus spread in Africa

South Africa declares “state of disaster” after virus is found to spread locally and cases rise to 61

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/ticking-time-bomb-scientists-worry-about-coronavirus-spread-africa

The average American has three days of fresh food reserves—"we are all only ever nine meals from anarchy.”

The perils of our "just enough, just in time" global food system in the face of #COVID19 via @ConversationUS

http://theconversation.com/coronavirus-the-perils-of-our-just-enough-just-in-time-food-system-133724just

“Authorities [in Venezuela] were stopping producers from delivering food across the whole country, and so far the government had not issued them with any sort of permission to pass through checkpoints unhindered.”

#COVID19 #foodsecurity

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-venezuela-idUSKBN2143QY

Quarantine threatens to deepen Venezuelan crisis as roadblocks snarl food supplies

Roadblocks across Venezuela snarled the transportation of goods on Tuesday and businesses in the capital Caracas reported that food deliveries failed to arrive, in signs that a national coronavirus...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-venezuela-idUSKBN2143QY

Important reminder from @nprDanCharles that while restaurants shutter, “food producers, are operating almost as normal — at least for now” with thousands of H-2A workers risking illness to provide critical farm labor this season.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/18/816644358/covid-19-threatens-food-supply-chain-as-farms-worry-about-workers-falling-ill

COVID-19 Threatens Food Supply Chain As Farms Worry About Workers Falling Ill

COVID-19 has turned one end of the food industry — stores and restaurants — on its head. At the other end, food production hums along as usual, but that could change if workers catch the virus.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/18/816644358/covid-19-threatens-food-supply-chain-as-farms-worry-about-workers-falling-ill

Global food stocks look O.K. in the face of #coronavirus #COVID19 according to @FAO. Estimated 3 month buffer of cereals.

NOT evenly distributed, of course. 34 of 44 countries requiring external trade or humanitarian assistance are in Africa.

See: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/

Important words from Jacob Kurtzer of @CSISHumAgenda on the impacts of #COVID19 #coronavirus on humanitarian organizations and those in desperate need of assistance around the world.

http://csis.org/analysis/impact-covid-19-humanitarian-crises

The Impact of COVID-19 on Humanitarian Crises

The increasing spread of COVID-19 has dominated global attention. Governments and media are focusing attention on the domestic impacts of the virus and the medical and political responses. With over...

http://csis.org/analysis/impact-covid-19-humanitarian-crises

More coming now from @l_haddad @CorinnaHawkes @jessfanzo and others on the global #foodsecurity impacts of #COVID19.

This is the launch of a blog series and a @NutritionConnex landing page, so keep tuning in at @GAINalliance.

https://www.gainhealth.org/media/news/covid-19-crisis-and-food-systems-addressing-threats-creating-opportunities

More coming now from @l_haddad @CorinnaHawkes @jessfanzo and others on the global #foodsecurity impacts of #COVID19. This is the launch of a blog series and a @NutritionConnex landing page, so keep tuning in at @GAINalliance. https://www.gainhealth.org/media/news/covid-19-crisis-and-food-systems-addressing-threats-creating-opportunities

Two insights re: #foodsecurity & #COVID19 from
@IFPRI modeling:

1. A 1% reduction in global economic growth may increase global extreme poverty by 1.7%-3%.

2. A 1% slowdown could cause a decline in developing-country agri-food exports of almost 25%.

https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-much-will-global-poverty-increase-because-covid-19

Two insights re: #foodsecurity & #COVID19 from @IFPRI modeling:1. A 1% reduction in global economic growth may increase global extreme poverty by 1.7%-3%.2. A 1% slowdown could cause a decline in developing-country agri-food exports of almost 25%. https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-much-will-global-poverty-increase-because-covid-19

Our friends @USGLC on the global #foodsecurity impacts of #COVID19.

As their Advisory Council chairs write, "No matter how successful we are in fighting the threat at home, we will never stop it unless we are also fighting it around the world."

https://www.usglc.org/blog/impact-of-coronavirus-on-global-hunger/

Impact of Coronavirus: on Global Hunger – USGLC

https://www.usglc.org/blog/impact-of-coronavirus-on-global-hunger/

"The flour is in production and the mills are running fine. People shouldn’t be concerned about supply. It’s a demand issue."

More affirmation from growers and millers in North America that the food system is working.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-wheat/north-american-millers-bakers-scramble-to-satisfy-bread-buying-binge-idUKKBN21A30P

North American millers, bakers scramble to satisfy bread-buying binge

North American flour mills and bakeries are rushing to boost production as the spread of the new coronavirus leads to stockpiling of staples like bread and pasta.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-wheat/north-american-millers-bakers-scramble-to-satisfy-bread-buying-binge-idUKKBN21A30P

One of the first examples of food prices increases from #COVID19.

@AlJazeera reporting that some food prices in Khartoum, Sudan have more than tripled since the first case was reported.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-sudan-food-medical-supplies-short-supply-200318131141974.html

Coronavirus in Sudan: Food and medical supplies in short supply

The government is preparing isolation centres near the border with Egypt where more than 100 cases have been reported.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-sudan-food-medical-supplies-short-supply-200318131141974.html

Rwanda is also seeing food price increases from #COVID19.

"Late on Monday, the trade ministry fixed prices for 17 food items including rice, sugar and cooking oil."

Panic buying, hoarding, and price gauging to blame.

https://www.dw.com/en/price-hikes-in-africa-aggravate-the-coronavirus-crisis/a-52820553

Price hikes in Africa aggravate the coronavirus crisis

Prices for basic food staples are rising in Africa, as shoppers stock on essentials and sellers seek profits amid the coronavirus scare. Across the continent, people are calling for governments to...

https://www.dw.com/en/price-hikes-in-africa-aggravate-the-coronavirus-crisis/a-52820553

This is a headline that I have been dreading since #COVID19 emerged.

Protectionism in the face of a food “crisis” produces nothing but hunger.

But there is still time to ensure that food moves freely between markets & those most vulnerable remain fed. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade

Countries Starting to Hoard Food, Threatening Global Trade

It’s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples. Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the conoravirus pandemic.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade

"Vietnam, the third largest rice exporter, and Kazakhstan, the number nine wheat exporter, have already made moves to restrict sales of those staples amid concerns over domestic availability."

#COVID19 #foodsecurity

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/world-food-security-at-risk-as-exporters-curb-sales-importers-buy-more?hid=0a5b30cb11dfd1c2ba38a4c09d8624e40fdc564a&did=505864-20200326&utm_campaign=todays-news_newsletter&utm_source=agriculture.com&utm_medium=email&utm_content=032620&cid=505864&mid=31387930181#

World food security at risk as exporters curb sales, importers buy more

By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, March 26 (Reuters) - Global food security concerns are mounting with around a fifth of the world's population already under lockdown to fight the widening coronavirus...

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/world-food-security-at-risk-as-exporters-curb-sales-importers-buy-more?hid=0a5b30cb11dfd1c2ba38a4c09d8624e40fdc564a&did=505864-20200326&utm_campaign=todays-news_newsletter&utm_source=agriculture.com&utm_medium=email&utm_content=032620&cid=505864&mid=31387930181#

“The worst that can happen is that governments restrict the flow of food."

@MaximoTorero @FAO is right. This isn't 2008, supply is ample but concentrated in certain countries.

Trade helps break it loose, avoiding price spikes and, ultimately, hunger.

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-measures-could-cause-global-food-shortage-un-warns

Coronavirus measures could cause global food shortage, UN warns

Exclusive: Protectionist policies and shortage of workers could see problems start within weeks

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-measures-could-cause-global-food-shortage-un-warns

The first post in the @NutritionConnex series on #COVID2019 and #FoodSystems by @FAO Chief Economist @MaximoTorero.

1) Safety nets
2) Free trade
3) Invest in supply chains
4) Support farmers to keep growing

@l_haddad of @GAINalliance with the assist.

https://nutritionconnect.org/resource-center/covid-19-and-food-supply-four-pronged-battle-plan-countries

Acting Director of @WFP Supply Chain:

" @WHO continues to advocate for no restrictions to transport and trade, however countries will act based on their own risk assessment, and some supply chains may be disrupted."

Read more

https://www.unocha.org/sites/unocha/files/Global-Humanitarian-Response-Plan-COVID-19.pdf

"Experience from other infectious disease outbreaks makes clear that malnourished individuals have a higher risk of becoming ill, a longer duration of illness, and greater risk of death."

Read more on this from @WFPUSA board member @DanRGlickman.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/opinions/healthy-diet-immune-system-covid-19-mozaffarian-glickman-nikbin-meydani/index.html

How your diet can help flatten the curve

Dariush Mozaffarian, Dan Glickman and Simin Nikbin Meydani write that social distancing, hand-washing and quarantine can flatten the curve, but there are at least three important ways diet can help...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/opinions/healthy-diet-immune-system-covid-19-mozaffarian-glickman-nikbin-meydani/index.html

The latest from @JoeGlauber1, @RobVos26, Will Martin and David Laborde of @IFPRI on #COVID19 impacts on global food prices.

A reminder: this does NOT have to be 2007/8 all over again. Global markets are well supplied.

https://www.ifpri.org/blog/covid-19-trade-restrictions-are-worst-possible-response-safeguard-food-security

COVID-19: Trade restrictions are worst possible response to safeguard

Trade is allowing production to move from areas of surplus to areas of shortage, avoiding the drastic shortages and food insecurity associated with reliance only on local production.

https://www.ifpri.org/blog/covid-19-trade-restrictions-are-worst-possible-response-safeguard-food-security

While global food markets are well supplied in the face of #COVID19, this does NOT always protect vulnerable populations in their own markets.

Border closings, unscrupulous traders, hoarding and panic buying will affect food ACCESS.

Reminder from Sudan

https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/prices-soar-across-sudan-as-coronavirus-measures-bite

Prices soar across Sudan as coronavirus measures bite

Commodity prices are soaring as precautions against coronavirus (Covid-19) impact on daily life in Sudan. The Federal Government has directed state governors to act immediately to facilitate the...

https://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/article/prices-soar-across-sudan-as-coronavirus-measures-bite

Glad to have @cullenhendrix of @sie_center @PIIE adding his voice to this important conversation.

"Export restrictions are blunt instruments that further exacerbate the problems they were designed to address."

Read more here

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/wrong-tools-wrong-time-food-export-bans-time-covid-19

Wrong tools, wrong time: Food export bans in the time of COVID-19

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, export controls on medical supplies like face shields and surgical gowns are slowing the global response to the growing threat.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/wrong-tools-wrong-time-food-export-bans-time-covid-19

Wheat & rice prices rising on global markets as countries stockpile. No reason to panic (talking to you, governments), a natural response to increased demand from millers trying to restock shelves & import-reliant countries doing what they do.

Read more

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wheat-and-rice-prices-surgein-coronavirus-lockdown-11585598044

Wheat and Rice Prices Surge in Coronavirus Lockdown

Difficulties moving grain within countries and across borders, coupled with frenzied buying, could exacerbate the impact of the pandemic on the global food market.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wheat-and-rice-prices-surgein-coronavirus-lockdown-11585598044

. @WFP @WFPUSA have been sounding the alarm on #COVID19 & global #foodsecurity because it will disproportionately affect places with:

1. Limited healthcare infr.
2. No safety nets
3. Malnourished people
4. Reliance on food imports
5. Pervasive poverty

https://insight.wfp.org/covid-19-and-the-5-major-threats-it-poses-to-global-food-security-1c4da2ff6657

. @WFP @WFPUSA have been sounding the alarm on #COVID19 & global #foodsecurity because it will disproportionately affect places with:1. Limited healthcare infr.2. No safety nets3. Malnourished people4. Reliance on food imports5. Pervasive poverty https://insight.wfp.org/covid-19-and-the-5-major-threats-it-poses-to-global-food-security-1c4da2ff6657

If you're not following @IFPRI's Food Export Restrictions Tracker, you should.

Good data is key to protecting against an unnecessary global food price crisis in a time of abundance.

As of today, 0.64% of calories under restriction.

Check it out

https://public.tableau.com/profile/laborde6680#!/vizhome/ExportRestrictionsTracker/FoodExportRestrictionsTracker

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