COVID-19 Why we are right to be scared, and what we can do about it. A thread.

Who the hell am I? I’m a former Army officer who runs a charity these days, and isn’t a scientist. 1/15

I’ve an Environmental Sciences BSc sure, but not ‘an expert’ virologist, epidemiologist, or human factors guy. But - I do speak the language, and I am an expert on where the right answers lie. 2/15

From 2000 on I trained at Porton Down to specialise in chemical, biological & radiological warfare, deploying in support of UK interests around the world. Christmas 2000 on the Iraq border commanding manned biological detection systems, and things got really busy in 2001. 3/15

I started 2001 tracking the virology of F&M in the fields of Cumbria and Devon, but by end of the year I was in Kabul, dealing with some extraordinary challenges, including unsecured Russian Cobalt-60 sources, and Anthrax veterinary vaccine production facilities. 4/15

By 03 I was a Major, Chief of Staff to Dep Comd of the Iraq Survey Group. The bloke showing Dr David Kelly around Baghdad days before he returned to face enquiry. I’m not a blind government fanboy. Let's say I learnt the dangers of conflating politics & science the hard way. 5/15

I was on the staff at Porton Down, working on a host of projects including planning for military aid to civil authorities, incl pandemics.
So, COVID-19
Scary, isn’t it? I think so too.
There’s also an abundance of information out there, and you’ve questions.
I’ve an answer. 6/15

The teams behind the Chief Scientific Advisor are extraordinary.
They are genuinely the world leaders in their fields, and they are ridiculously good at their jobs.
They aren’t googling the answers, or parroting a line that they just heard from a pushy presenter on TV.
7/15

The plans for this stuff are incredibly comprehensive, and help a government to act decisively, and at the right time.
So much in response is about timing – and too soon can be more dangerous than too early.
Look at the second (winter) wave of Spanish flu (graph from CDC) 8/15

That long game is what they - the experts are considering now.
Pictures of smiling Chinese people removing masks are propaganda, not science. That’s designed to cause an emotional response, and not in your interests
Success of early containment can only be judged in years.
9/15

We – in the UK, right now, are doing incredibly well.
We’ll protect our vulnerable best by responding promptly when the time is right, and the people who hold that responsibility deserve our trust and our support.

That takes guts. I know that. Now, more than ever.
10/15

Government scientists, advisors and staff also have families, elderly relatives, the immunocompromised.
They aren’t automatons, they feel that weight of responsibility.

Party politics simply doesn’t come into it. It just doesn’t.

So don’t pander to it, or point score.
11/15

If your knowledge of the subject of pandemic is such that to understand the history of Spanish Flu you need to google it, then your dissent, because you are scared, has only one place.

Your inner monologue. Keep it to yourself.

Be brave. Read up on the .gov advice.
12/15

This is even more important than if you have a following for reasons other than your epidemiological expertise, so, some simple advice:

Shut the fuck up, you are scaring people.

People like Piers might have a voice, but they’d kill us all if we listened to it. Mute them.
13/15

Lastly, don’t feel bad about being scared. I’ve been scared, many times, don’t mind admitting it.

Turn off and mute the noise of those who seek personal gain by instilling fear and doubt in others. Those that pander and promote the worst in us. Be Kind.

14/15

So, look after each other, particularly those who are less able and more at risk.
Look after yourselves, your own mental as well as your physical health.
Follow the science.
Wash your hands.
15/15

This. This is what I’m talking about.

Not the sort of bloke you want in your trench.