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This is out of control & very serious.To determine true mortality rate exclude those currently ill and look only at resolved cases, dead or alive.
3800 / (60,000+3800) = 6.0%
4300 / (60,000+4300) = 6.7%
4700 / (68000+4700) = 6.5%
4900 / (68000+4900) = 6.7%
It is over 6%
These ratios aren’t changing much...
This means 4,700 of the 62,000 known patients will die in the next couple of weeks.
Meanwhile new infections are in exponential growth ahead of detection.
If this pandemic keeps spreading like flu over a billion people will have it this year
This means 4,700 of the 62,000 known patients will die in the next couple of weeks.
Meanwhile new infections are in exponential growth ahead of detection.
If this pandemic keeps spreading like flu over a billion people will have it this year
We also know 15% of cases need hospital care in ICU requiring ventilators. 15%!
Of these hospitalised patients 40% are dying. That’s your 6% current overall death toll.
If health services are overwhelmed (not enough staff or ventilators to cope) the mortality rate will rise.
Of these hospitalised patients 40% are dying. That’s your 6% current overall death toll.
If health services are overwhelmed (not enough staff or ventilators to cope) the mortality rate will rise.
If a billion people are infected globally, we are likely to lose 60 million people to this disease in the next 12 months before vaccines are developed and ready for global distribution. Is this in any way acceptable? Wake up everyone! Take all precautions you can, NOW.
If government has failed to protect you, take responsibility for protecting yourselves! Now!
The latest figures 14th March.
The ratio calculation from resolved cases only, recovered or dead.
5700 / (73,000 + 5,700) = 7.24%
This is about the same percentage of the world’s population over the age of 70.
As influenza does, this virus is 20x worse! Protect you old folks.
The ratio calculation from resolved cases only, recovered or dead.
5700 / (73,000 + 5,700) = 7.24%
This is about the same percentage of the world’s population over the age of 70.
As influenza does, this virus is 20x worse! Protect you old folks.
Today Sunday 15 March:
Analysing the numbers as above, the ratio of deaths to the number of know resolved cases.
Deaths / recovered + dead
5,700 / 73,000+5,700 = 7.24%
In Italy, the number of recoveries is small so far. Measure deaths / total:
1,441 / 21,157 = 6.81%
Analysing the numbers as above, the ratio of deaths to the number of know resolved cases.
Deaths / recovered + dead
5,700 / 73,000+5,700 = 7.24%
In Italy, the number of recoveries is small so far. Measure deaths / total:
1,441 / 21,157 = 6.81%
Spain yesterday
120 / 4,231 = 2.84%
Spain today
228 / 7,750 = 2.94%
This is early in a rising epidemic with few recoveries so far, and most existing known cases yet to resolve.
This means there are a substantial number of the known cases who will die, 6-7% mortality is likely.
120 / 4,231 = 2.84%
Spain today
228 / 7,750 = 2.94%
This is early in a rising epidemic with few recoveries so far, and most existing known cases yet to resolve.
This means there are a substantial number of the known cases who will die, 6-7% mortality is likely.
UK NHS guidance on Covid-19 https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/
UK government Covid-19 advice page. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
Update from Italy,
Sunday 15th March:
1,809 deaths from a new total of 24,700 cases...
1,809 / 24,700 = 7.3%
They don’t say how many have recovered so far, and it is apparent that there are many unrecorded cases in the communities.
This is a tragedy
https://apple.news/AID3MtAmbQjujAb91-ov1Ag
Sunday 15th March:
1,809 deaths from a new total of 24,700 cases...
1,809 / 24,700 = 7.3%
They don’t say how many have recovered so far, and it is apparent that there are many unrecorded cases in the communities.
This is a tragedy
https://apple.news/AID3MtAmbQjujAb91-ov1Ag
Mon 16 Mar world update.
Today’s ratios:
Current cs / Tot = 50%
Resolved cs / Tot = 50%
Recovered / Tot = 46.4%
Deaths / Tot = 3.61%
Deaths / Resolved cs = 7.23%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelming of health services.
Today’s ratios:
Current cs / Tot = 50%
Resolved cs / Tot = 50%
Recovered / Tot = 46.4%
Deaths / Tot = 3.61%
Deaths / Resolved cs = 7.23%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelming of health services.
Mon 16 Mar 2nd update.
Today’s ratios:
Current cs / Tot = 50.9%
Resolved cs / Tot = 49.1%
Recovered / Tot = 45.3%
Deaths / Tot = 3.82%
Deaths / Resolved cs = 7.78%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelming of health services.
Today’s ratios:
Current cs / Tot = 50.9%
Resolved cs / Tot = 49.1%
Recovered / Tot = 45.3%
Deaths / Tot = 3.82%
Deaths / Resolved cs = 7.78%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelming of health services.
Latest figures from Italy
Monday 16 March.
2,749 in Serious & Critical condition-
2,749 / 27,980 = 9.8%
2,158 Deaths / 27,980 Tot = 7.7%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelming of health services.
Monday 16 March.
2,749 in Serious & Critical condition-
2,749 / 27,980 = 9.8%
2,158 Deaths / 27,980 Tot = 7.7%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelming of health services.
Mon 16/03: 3rd update today.
Latest ratios:
Current cs / Tot = 53.3%
Resolved cs / Tot = 46.7%
Recovered / Tot = 42.8%
Deaths / Tot = 3.89%
Deaths / Resolved cs = 8.33%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelmed health services.
Latest ratios:
Current cs / Tot = 53.3%
Resolved cs / Tot = 46.7%
Recovered / Tot = 42.8%
Deaths / Tot = 3.89%
Deaths / Resolved cs = 8.33%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelmed health services.
March 17th.
It’s rapidly worsening.
A) 190,526 Total
B) 102,080 unresolved
C) 80,911 recovered
D) 7,535 dead
B/A = 53.6%
C/A = 42.5%
D/A = 3.95%
D/(C+D) = 8.52%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelmed health services.
It’s rapidly worsening.
A) 190,526 Total
B) 102,080 unresolved
C) 80,911 recovered
D) 7,535 dead
B/A = 53.6%
C/A = 42.5%
D/A = 3.95%
D/(C+D) = 8.52%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelmed health services.
March 18th.
It’s rapidly worsening.
A) 200,000 Total
B) 111,000 unresolved
C) 81,000 recovered
D) >8,000 dead
B/A = 55.5%
C/A = 40.5%
D/A = >4.0%
D/(C+D) = 9.0%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelmed health services.
It’s rapidly worsening.
A) 200,000 Total
B) 111,000 unresolved
C) 81,000 recovered
D) >8,000 dead
B/A = 55.5%
C/A = 40.5%
D/A = >4.0%
D/(C+D) = 9.0%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, and overwhelmed health services.
March 19th.
Rapid worsening as USA kicks off.
A) 220,000 Total
B) 127,000 unresolved
C) 84,000 recovered
D) 9,000 dead
B/A = 57.7%
C/A = 38.2%
D/A = 4.1%
D/(C+D) = 9.7%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
Rapid worsening as USA kicks off.
A) 220,000 Total
B) 127,000 unresolved
C) 84,000 recovered
D) 9,000 dead
B/A = 57.7%
C/A = 38.2%
D/A = 4.1%
D/(C+D) = 9.7%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
In one week known cases have doubled from 110,000 to 220,000.
Deaths have more than doubled from 3,800 to 9,000 despite all efforts so far to slow the pandemic.
This means in another week we’ll reach 450,000 and in 2 weeks 900,000 cases, with the death toll rising over 40,000.
Deaths have more than doubled from 3,800 to 9,000 despite all efforts so far to slow the pandemic.
This means in another week we’ll reach 450,000 and in 2 weeks 900,000 cases, with the death toll rising over 40,000.
Acentury ago so-called ‘spanish flu’ swept the world after WW1 and killed over 50 million people of all ages.
Covid 19 is as infections and just as deadly.
Nobody should take the present pandemic lightly.
We must all do everything we can to reduce its spread and impact.
Covid 19 is as infections and just as deadly.
Nobody should take the present pandemic lightly. We must all do everything we can to reduce its spread and impact.
Friday March 20th.
Pandemic crisis rising.
A) 230,000 Total
B) 135,000 unresolved
C) 85,000 recovered
D) 10,000 dead
B/A = 58.7%
C/A = 37.0%
D/A = 4.35%
D/(C+D) = 10.53%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
Pandemic crisis rising.
A) 230,000 Total
B) 135,000 unresolved
C) 85,000 recovered
D) 10,000 dead
B/A = 58.7%
C/A = 37.0%
D/A = 4.35%
D/(C+D) = 10.53%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
Saturday March 21st.
A horrifying rise.
A) 300,000 Total
B) 197,000 unresolved
C) 91,000 recovered
D) 12,000 dead
B/A = 65.7%
C/A = 30.3%
D/A = 4.00%
D/(C+D) = 11.65%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
A horrifying rise.
A) 300,000 Total
B) 197,000 unresolved
C) 91,000 recovered
D) 12,000 dead
B/A = 65.7%
C/A = 30.3%
D/A = 4.00%
D/(C+D) = 11.65%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
Sunday March 22nd.
A horrifying rise.
A) 329,000 Total
B) 218,000 unresolved
C) 97,000 recovered
D) 14,000 dead
B/A = 66.3%
C/A = 29.5%
D/A = 4.26%
D/(C+D) = 12.61%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
A horrifying rise.
A) 329,000 Total
B) 218,000 unresolved
C) 97,000 recovered
D) 14,000 dead
B/A = 66.3%
C/A = 29.5%
D/A = 4.26%
D/(C+D) = 12.61%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
Monday March 23rd.
No slowdown yet
A) 350,000 Total
B) 235,000 unresolved
C) 100,000 recovered
D) 15,000 dead
B/A = 67.1%
C/A = 28.6%
D/A = 4.29%
D/(C+D) = 13.04%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
No slowdown yet
A) 350,000 Total
B) 235,000 unresolved
C) 100,000 recovered
D) 15,000 dead
B/A = 67.1%
C/A = 28.6%
D/A = 4.29%
D/(C+D) = 13.04%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
Tuesday March 24th
No slowdown yet
A) 378,000 Total
B) 255,000 unresolved
C) 106,500 recovered
D) 16,500 dead
B/A = 67.5%
C/A = 28.2%
D/A = 4.37%
D/(C+D) = 13.41%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
No slowdown yet
A) 378,000 Total
B) 255,000 unresolved
C) 106,500 recovered
D) 16,500 dead
B/A = 67.5%
C/A = 28.2%
D/A = 4.37%
D/(C+D) = 13.41%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
March 24th, 2nd update
No slowdown
A) 400,000 Total
B) 275,000 unresolved
C) 107,000 recovered
D) 18,000 dead
B/A = 68.75%
C/A = 26.75%
D/A = 4.50%
D/(C+D) = 14.40%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
No slowdown
A) 400,000 Total
B) 275,000 unresolved
C) 107,000 recovered
D) 18,000 dead
B/A = 68.75%
C/A = 26.75%
D/A = 4.50%
D/(C+D) = 14.40%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
March 25th, morning:
No slowdown
A) 423,121 Total
B) 295,624 unresolved
C) 108,578 recovered
D) 18,919 dead
B/A = 69.87%
C/A = 25.67%
D/A = 4.47%
D/(C+D) = 14.84%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
No slowdown
A) 423,121 Total
B) 295,624 unresolved
C) 108,578 recovered
D) 18,919 dead
B/A = 69.87%
C/A = 25.67%
D/A = 4.47%
D/(C+D) = 14.84%
Mortality rates rising indicate lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, & overwhelmed health services.
25 Mar 2020
A) 435,380+ Total
B) 304,804 unresolved
C) 110,991 recovered
D) 19,585+ dead
B/A = 70.0%
C/A = 25.5%
D/A = 4.5%
D/(C+D) = 15.0%
This tells us 15% of unresolved known cases (B) will die.
Another 45,720 deaths IF the spread stopped today...
https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1242829875616059392?s=21 https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1242829875616059392
A) 435,380+ Total
B) 304,804 unresolved
C) 110,991 recovered
D) 19,585+ dead
B/A = 70.0%
C/A = 25.5%
D/A = 4.5%
D/(C+D) = 15.0%
This tells us 15% of unresolved known cases (B) will die.
Another 45,720 deaths IF the spread stopped today...
https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1242829875616059392?s=21 https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1242829875616059392
But it’s not under control.
China, Japan, South Korea & Singapore have subdued it, but most countries now are seeing exponentially spreading infections.
Lockdown came too late and hundreds of thousands will inevitably die, but we can still hope to prevent millions of deaths.
China, Japan, South Korea & Singapore have subdued it, but most countries now are seeing exponentially spreading infections.
Lockdown came too late and hundreds of thousands will inevitably die, but we can still hope to prevent millions of deaths.
March 26th, morning:
A) 470,000 Total
B) 334,000 unresolved
C) 115,000 recovered
D) 21,000 dead
B/A = 71.1%
C/A = 24.5%
D/A = 4.47%
D/(C+D) = 18.26%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
A) 470,000 Total
B) 334,000 unresolved
C) 115,000 recovered
D) 21,000 dead
B/A = 71.1%
C/A = 24.5%
D/A = 4.47%
D/(C+D) = 18.26%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
March 26th, evening:
A) 520,000 Total
B) 375,000 unresolved
C) 122,000 recovered
D) 23,000 dead
B/A = 72.1%
C/A = 23.5%
D/A = 4.42%
D/(C+D) = 15.86%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
A) 520,000 Total
B) 375,000 unresolved
C) 122,000 recovered
D) 23,000 dead
B/A = 72.1%
C/A = 23.5%
D/A = 4.42%
D/(C+D) = 15.86%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
March 26th, UK :
T) 104,866 tested
A) 11,658 +cases
B) 10,000 unresolved
C) 1,080 recovered
D) 578 dead
B/A = 85.8%
C/A = 9.2%
D/A = 5.0%
D/(C+D) = 53.5%
High Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) no cure, early stage.
T) 104,866 tested
A) 11,658 +cases
B) 10,000 unresolved
C) 1,080 recovered
D) 578 dead
B/A = 85.8%
C/A = 9.2%
D/A = 5.0%
D/(C+D) = 53.5%
High Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) no cure, early stage.
March 26th, Scotland:
T) 11,487 tested
A) 894 +cases (7.8% of tests)
B) 825 unresolved
C) 44 recovered
D) 25 dead
B/A = 92.3%
C/A = 4.9%
D/A = 2.8%
D/(C+D) = 36.2%
Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) no cure, early stage.
T) 11,487 tested
A) 894 +cases (7.8% of tests)
B) 825 unresolved
C) 44 recovered
D) 25 dead
B/A = 92.3%
C/A = 4.9%
D/A = 2.8%
D/(C+D) = 36.2%
Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) no cure, early stage.
March 27th, morning:
A) 530,000 Total
B) 384,000 unresolved
C) 122,000 recovered
D) 24,000 dead
B/A = 72.5%
C/A = 23.0%
D/A = 4.5%
D/(C+D) = 16.44%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
A) 530,000 Total
B) 384,000 unresolved
C) 122,000 recovered
D) 24,000 dead
B/A = 72.5%
C/A = 23.0%
D/A = 4.5%
D/(C+D) = 16.44%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
March 27th, 3:30pm:
A) 559,136 Total
B) 405,080 unresolved
C) 128,778 recovered
D) 25,278 dead
B/A = 72.45%
C/A = 23.03%
D/A = 4.52%
D/(C+D) = 16.41%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
A) 559,136 Total
B) 405,080 unresolved
C) 128,778 recovered
D) 25,278 dead
B/A = 72.45%
C/A = 23.03%
D/A = 4.52%
D/(C+D) = 16.41%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
March 28th, 3:00 am
A) 597,262 Total
B) 436,534 unresolved
C) 133,363 recovered
D) 27,365 dead
B/A = 73.09%
C/A = 22.33%
D/A = 4.58%
D/(C+D) = 17.03%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
A) 597,262 Total
B) 436,534 unresolved
C) 133,363 recovered
D) 27,365 dead
B/A = 73.09%
C/A = 22.33%
D/A = 4.58%
D/(C+D) = 17.03%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
March 28th, 12:00 am
A) 614,231 Total
B) 448,662 unresolved
C) 137,329 recovered
D) 28,240 dead
B/A = 73.04%
C/A = 22.36%
D/A = 4.60%
D/(C+D) = 17.06%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
A) 614,231 Total
B) 448,662 unresolved
C) 137,329 recovered
D) 28,240 dead
B/A = 73.04%
C/A = 22.36%
D/A = 4.60%
D/(C+D) = 17.06%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
March 28th, 8:30pm.
A) 657,521 Total
B) 485,674 unresolved
C) 141,429 recovered
D) 30,428 dead
B/A = 73.86%
C/A = 21.51%
D/A = 4.63%
D/(C+D) = 17.71%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
A) 657,521 Total
B) 485,674 unresolved
C) 141,429 recovered
D) 30,428 dead
B/A = 73.86%
C/A = 21.51%
D/A = 4.63%
D/(C+D) = 17.71%
Rising Mortality rates indicate:
D/A lack of testing, leaving cases undetected, &
D/(C+D) overwhelmed health services.
March 29, 4:00am, Sunday
World Totals: Daily Rise
A) 663,748 cases +66,486
B) 490,684 active +54,150
C) 142,184 survived 8,821
D) 30,880 died +3,515
B/A = 73.9% and 81.5% today
C/A = 21.4% 13.3%
D/A = 4.7% 5.3%
D/(C+D)= 17.8%. 28.5%
World Totals: Daily Rise
A) 663,748 cases +66,486
B) 490,684 active +54,150
C) 142,184 survived 8,821
D) 30,880 died +3,515
B/A = 73.9% and 81.5% today
C/A = 21.4% 13.3%
D/A = 4.7% 5.3%
D/(C+D)= 17.8%. 28.5%
Sunday 29th March:
Ratios are indicating a rising crisis with increasing testing (not enough), new cases far outpacing recoveries, & mortality rates rising alarmingly.
2 weeks ago
B/A was 50% ....now 74%
C/A was 46.4%..now 21%
D/A was 3.6% ....now 4.6%
D/(C+D) was 6%..now 17.8%
Ratios are indicating a rising crisis with increasing testing (not enough), new cases far outpacing recoveries, & mortality rates rising alarmingly.
2 weeks ago
B/A was 50% ....now 74%
C/A was 46.4%..now 21%
D/A was 3.6% ....now 4.6%
D/(C+D) was 6%..now 17.8%
Sunday 29th March:
Worse still, when you look at the ratios from today’s Daily Rises (above) the alarmingly high mortality rate in Europe and America is revealed:
A) 66,486
B) 54,150
C) 8,821
D) 3,515
B/A =81.5%
C/A =13.3%
D/A =5.3%
D/(C+D) =28.5%
Understand the crisis!
Worse still, when you look at the ratios from today’s Daily Rises (above) the alarmingly high mortality rate in Europe and America is revealed:
A) 66,486
B) 54,150
C) 8,821
D) 3,515
B/A =81.5%
C/A =13.3%
D/A =5.3%
D/(C+D) =28.5%
Understand the crisis!
The death toll has risen sharply in 2 weeks, from 5,700 by Sunday 15th (half in China), to over 30,400 today.
Italy today-
A) 92,472 cases
B) 70,065 active
C) 12,384 survivors
D) 10,023 dead
B/A =75.8%
C/A =13.4%
D/A =10.8%
D/(C+D) =44.73%
A staggering mortality rate
Italy today-
A) 92,472 cases
B) 70,065 active
C) 12,384 survivors
D) 10,023 dead
B/A =75.8%
C/A =13.4%
D/A =10.8%
D/(C+D) =44.73%
A staggering mortality rate
Italy’s mortality rate D/(C+D) is consistently above 40% in the hospitals and it’s not unique to Italy.
Spain, France and Germany are coping no better and the catastrophe is just starting in UK and USA.
Numbers for UK:
A) 17,089
B) 15,935
C) 135
D) 1,019
D/A =6%
D/(C+D) =89%
Spain, France and Germany are coping no better and the catastrophe is just starting in UK and USA.
Numbers for UK:
A) 17,089
B) 15,935
C) 135
D) 1,019
D/A =6%
D/(C+D) =89%
The pandemic is exploding across Europe and America and our best hospitals are being overwhelmed:
USA today:
A) 123,271 cases
B) 117,833 active
C) 3,231 survivors
D) 2,202 dead
B/A =95.6%
C/A =2.6%
D/A =1.8%
D/(C+D) =40% - just like Italy.
Italy mourns 10,000 today
and our best hospitals are being overwhelmed:USA today:
A) 123,271 cases
B) 117,833 active
C) 3,231 survivors
D) 2,202 dead
B/A =95.6%
C/A =2.6%
D/A =1.8%
D/(C+D) =40% - just like Italy.
Italy mourns 10,000 today
Witnessing this unfolding global tragedy is agonisingly hard on all of us, especially our doctors, nurses & other health workers who are in ‘the front lines’.
We are nowhere near the peak of this runaway health crisis yet- and it’s about to run wild across India and Africa
We are nowhere near the peak of this runaway health crisis yet- and it’s about to run wild across India and Africa
Sunday Mar29, 8:00pm
CoViD-19
World Totals: Daily Rise
A) 715,521 cases +77,660
B) 530,977 active +60,440
C) 150,889 survived 13,058
D) 33,655 died....... +4,163
B/A = 74.2% and 77.8% today
C/A = 21.1% 16.8%
D/A = 4.7% 5.4%
D/(C+D)=18.2%. 24.2%
CoViD-19
World Totals: Daily Rise
A) 715,521 cases +77,660
B) 530,977 active +60,440
C) 150,889 survived 13,058
D) 33,655 died....... +4,163
B/A = 74.2% and 77.8% today
C/A = 21.1% 16.8%
D/A = 4.7% 5.4%
D/(C+D)=18.2%. 24.2%
CORONAVIRUS The number of new cases just hit 800,000.
Up by 200,000 in just 3.5 days!
It will pass 1 million by Friday.
Follow & understand the pandemic on Worldometer.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Politicians are lying to us.Analyse the numbers-
Numbers don’t lie.
Beware of graphs like those on the left (below) showing the rise in numbers appearing to slow down as if we’re approaching a peak.They use a logarithmic scale (1; 10; 100; 1,000; 10,000; 100,000; 1,000,000).
The real rise on a linear scale is shown on the right graphs.
This is an informative explanation of why they use logarithmic scales, from the FT coronavirus tracker. https://www.ft.com/video/9a72a9d4-8db1-4615-8333-4b73ae3ddff8
CORONAVIRUS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
I started analysing pandemic numbers on March 13th (see thread below): That included predictions that have been proved right.
On Mar12 the Total reached 100,000 and Mortality was 6% based on numbers from China...
https://twitter.com/db4worldjustice/status/1238467320126849026?s=21 https://twitter.com/DB4WorldJustice/status/1238467320126849026
As CoViD-19 spread outside China increasing Mortality Rates (MR) emerged as Totals (T) increased exponentially doubling every 6 days and reducing the influence of Chinese stats.
Mar12 T=100,000 MR=6%
Mar18 T=200,000 MR=9%
Mar24 T=400,000 MR=14%
Mar31 T=800,000 MR=19%
Mar12 T=100,000 MR=6%
Mar18 T=200,000 MR=9%
Mar24 T=400,000 MR=14%
Mar31 T=800,000 MR=19%
Numbers from the first study of the epidemic in Wuhan indicated that at least 15% of recorded cases needed hospitalisation in intensive care and 40% of those patients died. That’s a 6% Mortality Rate. Some found a higher MR.
South Korea’s best-managed epidemic is showing 3% MR.
South Korea’s best-managed epidemic is showing 3% MR.
Tragically in Europe & America we have a high proportion of elderly people & many with underlying health conditions.
We are seeing MR’s of 20-45%.
We should have been prepared for a pandemic of this magnitude, but we weren’t & we didn’t have the social discipline to control it...
We are seeing MR’s of 20-45%.
We should have been prepared for a pandemic of this magnitude, but we weren’t & we didn’t have the social discipline to control it...
In the forefront Today we have these numbers:
Mortality Rate (MR) is calculated by the number of Deaths (D) divided by Recoveries+Deaths (C+D).
USA - D=3,431 C=6,241
MR=35%
Italy - D=12,428 C=15,729
MR=44%
Spain - D=8,269 C=19,259
MR=30%
France - D=3,024 C=7,927
MR=38%
Mortality Rate (MR) is calculated by the number of Deaths (D) divided by Recoveries+Deaths (C+D).
USA - D=3,431 C=6,241
MR=35%
Italy - D=12,428 C=15,729
MR=44%
Spain - D=8,269 C=19,259
MR=30%
France - D=3,024 C=7,927
MR=38%
High false MR’s are from early-stage epidemics -
UK - D=1,789 C=135 (93%)
NL - D=1,039 C=250 (81%)
Best-case outcomes are from controlled epidemics with high testing levels-
China- D=3,305 C=76,052
MR=4.16%
S.Korea- D=162 C=5,408
MR=2.91%
Germany- D=682 C=15,824
MR=4.13%
UK - D=1,789 C=135 (93%)
NL - D=1,039 C=250 (81%)
Best-case outcomes are from controlled epidemics with high testing levels-
China- D=3,305 C=76,052
MR=4.16%
S.Korea- D=162 C=5,408
MR=2.91%
Germany- D=682 C=15,824
MR=4.13%
Coronavirus World Total is up by 75,000 in 24 hours.
More than 3,600 people died of this virus in the past 24 hours.
Today’s numbers:
A=875,445
B=647,034 B/A=73.9%
C=184,952 C/A=21.1%
D= 43,459 D/A=4.96%
D/(C+D)=19.03%
Comparison to Coronavirus SARS /
More than 3,600 people died of this virus in the past 24 hours.
Today’s numbers:
A=875,445
B=647,034 B/A=73.9%
C=184,952 C/A=21.1%
D= 43,459 D/A=4.96%
D/(C+D)=19.03%
Comparison to Coronavirus SARS /
Here’s a simple comparison to the Coronavirus SARS outbreak of Nov 2002 to July 2003.
SARS was successfully contained and controlled. It was significantly less contagious than today’s COVID-19 otherwise known as SARS-CoV-2...
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/ https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200131114755.htm
SARS was successfully contained and controlled. It was significantly less contagious than today’s COVID-19 otherwise known as SARS-CoV-2...
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/ https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200131114755.htm
SARS(2003) started in China in November 2002 (Ring!)
It infected >5,700 people in China, officially 5,327.
349 died.
A reported MR of 7% (Ring!)
It spread to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore & across SE Asia infecting a further 2,445 people.
380 died.
A higher MR of 15.5% (Ring!)
It infected >5,700 people in China, officially 5,327.
349 died.
A reported MR of 7% (Ring!)
It spread to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore & across SE Asia infecting a further 2,445 people.
380 died.
A higher MR of 15.5% (Ring!)
A significant SARS outbreak in Canada recorded 251 cases.
43 died.
A higher MR of 17% (Ring!)
73 cases around the World (Ring!)
27 in USA, 9 in Mongolia, 9 in Germany, 7 in France, 7 in Aus&NZ, 5 in Sweden, 4 in Italy, 4 in UK.
Only 2 died. MR=2.7%.
A Simple Conclusion/
43 died.
A higher MR of 17% (Ring!)
73 cases around the World (Ring!)
27 in USA, 9 in Mongolia, 9 in Germany, 7 in France, 7 in Aus&NZ, 5 in Sweden, 4 in Italy, 4 in UK.
Only 2 died. MR=2.7%.
A Simple Conclusion/
A Simple Conclusion from these studies & comparisons:
1) COVID-19 is a SARS-type Coronavirus. Both orginated from bats in China.
2) COVID-19 is as deadly as SARS (2003) and much more contagious.
3) COVID-19 is not flu. It is more contagious than flu and 100 times more lethal.
1) COVID-19 is a SARS-type Coronavirus. Both orginated from bats in China.
2) COVID-19 is as deadly as SARS (2003) and much more contagious.
3) COVID-19 is not flu. It is more contagious than flu and 100 times more lethal.
Read about Coronaviruses and understand the apocalyptic nature of this global pandemic.
We have vaccines against flu viruses but this is not flu...
We have no effective treatment and no vaccine against any Coronaviruses, not even the ‘common cold’.
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/coronaviruses
We have vaccines against flu viruses but this is not flu...
We have no effective treatment and no vaccine against any Coronaviruses, not even the ‘common cold’.https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/coronaviruses
In December CoViD-19 (aka SARS-CoV-2) escaped from China and brought exponential contagion & death to the World.
In January we counted in tens
In February, hundreds & thousands
In March, tens of thousands & hundreds of thousands
Now it’s April & we’re rocketing into millions.
In January we counted in tens
In February, hundreds & thousands
In March, tens of thousands & hundreds of thousands
Now it’s April & we’re rocketing into millions.
CORONAVIRUS The number of cases just hit 1,000,000.
Up by 200,000 in only 2.25 days!
As predicted at midday on 31 Mar.
Follow & understand the pandemic on Worldometer.
http://worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Politicians are lying to us.Analyse the numbers-
Numbers don’t lie.
CORONAVIRUS The total just hit 1,200,000.
Up by 200,000 in 2.25 days again!
The actual number is closer to 6 million.
Follow & understand the pandemic on Worldometer.
http://worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Politicians are lying to us.Analyse the numbers-
Numbers don’t lie.
CORONAVIRUS The total just hit 1,400,000.
Up by 200,000 in 46 hours!
The actual number is closer to 7 million.
Follow & understand the pandemic on Worldometer.
http://worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Politicians are lying to us.Analyse the numbers-
Numbers don’t lie.
79% to 21%
USA total hit 400,000 today.
The apparent mortality rate is shocking at >6%
Ac) 400,549 confirmed
Au) 2,400,000 untested
(estimated 6xAc)
Bc) 365,981 active cases
Cc) 21,711 recoveries
Dc) 12,857 deaths
Case Fatality Rate =D/(C+D)
12,857 / 34,568 = 37.2%
CFR x Ac/Au= 6.2%
The apparent mortality rate is shocking at >6%
Ac) 400,549 confirmed
Au) 2,400,000 untested
(estimated 6xAc)
Bc) 365,981 active cases
Cc) 21,711 recoveries
Dc) 12,857 deaths
Case Fatality Rate =D/(C+D)
12,857 / 34,568 = 37.2%
CFR x Ac/Au= 6.2%
CORONAVIRUS The total just hit 1,600,000.
Another 200,000 in 2.3 days!
The actual total may be 8 million.
Follow & understand the pandemic on Worldometer.
http://worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Politicians are lying to us.Analyse the numbers-
Numbers don’t lie.
79% to 21%
We are beginning to see a slowdown in the rate of spread of the pandemic, with China’s Hubei Province and S.Korea well past their peaks and now European countries showing their first benefits of lock-down & social distancing. Numbers in USA are rocketing this week.
SARS-CoV-2 has infected just 1.6M confirmed cases; probably nearer 8M including all unrecorded deaths and untested mild or asymptomatic cases.
Lockdown can halt exponential growth reducing to linear growth with R0 around 1.0, but it’s still spreading-
How do we get out of this?
Lockdown can halt exponential growth reducing to linear growth with R0 around 1.0, but it’s still spreading-
How do we get out of this?
8M is only 0.1% of the world population. How do we come out of lockdown without spreading the virus and starting new bigger outbreaks?
We’re not looking at small seed numbers now. Hundreds of cities and regions all over the World are primed to explode...
We are in stalemate.
We’re not looking at small seed numbers now. Hundreds of cities and regions all over the World are primed to explode...
We are in stalemate.
The only escape from this predicament is total quarantine of the fraction of 1% of the World’s polulation currently infected.
That’s easier said than done but it must be done through universal testing & tracing BEFORE we relax lockdown measures... & we must hope for a vaccine.
That’s easier said than done but it must be done through universal testing & tracing BEFORE we relax lockdown measures... & we must hope for a vaccine.
As CoViD-19 spread from China increasing Mortality (%) emerged as Totals (T) increased exponentially doubling every 6 days.
Mar12 T=100,000 6%
Mar18 T=200,000 9%
Mar24 T=400,000 14%
Mar31 T=800,000 19%
The next doubling took 9 days
Apr9 T=1,600,000 21%
Some slowing-
Mar12 T=100,000 6%
Mar18 T=200,000 9%
Mar24 T=400,000 14%
Mar31 T=800,000 19%
The next doubling took 9 days
Apr9 T=1,600,000 21%
Some slowing-
CORONAVIRUS The total just hit 1,800,000.
Another 200,000 in 2.5 days.
The actual total may be 9 million.
Follow & understand the pandemic on Worldometer.
http://worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Politicians are lying to us.Analyse the numbers-
Numbers don’t lie.
79% to 21%
Easter Mondaythe World’s death toll from CoViD-19 surpassed 120,000
More than 6,000 per day since 1st April.
These numbers from Worldometer on Tuesday morning & an update of what these numbers mean in terms of what has happened and what is still to come in this crisis /
Worldometer is tracking all reported CoViD-19 data; including country data & a range of graphs and other information.
First, the good news is that social distancing stay-at-home orders have cut exponential growth of the pandemic. Daily increases in cases and deaths are slowing.
First, the good news is that social distancing stay-at-home orders have cut exponential growth of the pandemic. Daily increases in cases and deaths are slowing.
The bad news is that we are still losing over 5,000 people per day.
The total numbers of active cases and critical ICU cases is still rising.
This means the crisis is nowhere near over & we are going to have to remain locked down for another 2-3 months. This is the new normal.
The total numbers of active cases and critical ICU cases is still rising.
This means the crisis is nowhere near over & we are going to have to remain locked down for another 2-3 months. This is the new normal.
The running total will hit 2 million today.
Analysis of data, that we’ll examine in this thread, indicates there are about five times more cases than the recorded number. This varies from 1.2x to 7x for different countries.
So maybe 10M cases of which 7 million are still active./
Analysis of data, that we’ll examine in this thread, indicates there are about five times more cases than the recorded number. This varies from 1.2x to 7x for different countries.
So maybe 10M cases of which 7 million are still active./
