-THREAD-

While everyone is obsessing over disintegrating financial markets and global pandemic, I've a few thoughts on matters still hiding in the shadows.

Trump's entire sandcastle narrative has now been washed away. There will be no more "greatest stock market in history".
1/

Of course, he is going to try to pin the blame on CV-19, the Federal Reserve, the Democrats, the presidents before him, etc.

And, in a way, he'll be right. But that doesn't matter. Trump made the choice to own these markets, and now he's reaping the whirlwind.

2/

I suspect the Democrat-controlled House is prepared to let the country slip into full-fledged depression before it agrees to any sort of fiscal stimulus package that might run the risk of stabilizing markets until the election in November.

3/

Meanwhile the crisis will worsen, and calls for action will grow. And it will all boil down to a single prescription: let's throw money at this problem until it goes away.

What form that ultimately takes, I do not know. And for purposes of this thread, it doesn't matter.

4/

What *does* matter is that, as the stakes rise and the pressure grows, A BIG MISTAKE IS GOING TO BE MADE.

I believe this to be almost a certainty.

Someone, somewhere will come up with a hare-brained wag-the-dog option, and Trump will buy into it.

5/

The manufacture of "rally around the flag" situations is a tried-and-true gambit for US presidents in the midst of a domestic crisis. I expect Trump to prove the rule, not the exception.

And herein lies the danger of a miscalculation that takes matters from bad to worse.

/end

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