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I have a lot of confidence in science, not so much in scientists.
Science is:
a) a set of protocols for the systematic accumulation of knowledge of the natural order.
b) the resulting body of knowledge.
Scientists are those who do the work of accumulating (b) by devotedly following (a). That entails certain occupational hazards.
a) a set of protocols for the systematic accumulation of knowledge of the natural order.
b) the resulting body of knowledge.
Scientists are those who do the work of accumulating (b) by devotedly following (a). That entails certain occupational hazards.
I should add a third definition for science:
c) a minor deity, the patron of secular humanists.
c) a minor deity, the patron of secular humanists.
Scientific research is a useful tool, but the first priority of fighting a pandemic is not to advance scientific knowledge but to save lives.
When you have scientists running the show you have an absence of evidence blind spot and a fixation on protocol which delays treatments.
When you have scientists running the show you have an absence of evidence blind spot and a fixation on protocol which delays treatments.
The blind spot is that any hypothesis may be ignored if it has no evidence. "There is no evidence that COVID-19 is transmissible between persons" (WHO).
This inhibits critical data gathering such as say, testing for community transmission because "there is no evidence for it".
This inhibits critical data gathering such as say, testing for community transmission because "there is no evidence for it".
This mindset is the opposite of what is required in war time where one gathers intelligence pretty much indiscriminately not only on the enemy's proven intentions but also on all potential avenues of attack.
As far as protocols are concerned they are valid for the long term especially where new molecules for medication are concerned.
But when a well known medicine is found to be useful in the front lines it is perverse for administrators to sit on it pending double blind studies.
But when a well known medicine is found to be useful in the front lines it is perverse for administrators to sit on it pending double blind studies.
That it why I say that pandemics are too important to be left to the scientists.
In fighting a pandemic research is all important just as in fighting a war, but no one would ever put scientists in charge of the overall war.
In fighting a pandemic research is all important just as in fighting a war, but no one would ever put scientists in charge of the overall war.
A successful war time leader in a fast changing situation works relentlessly on shortening the OODA loop. (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act)
Most scientists by temperament and training are deliberate and methodical. Their OODA loop is too long to be effective in a dynamic situation.
Most scientists by temperament and training are deliberate and methodical. Their OODA loop is too long to be effective in a dynamic situation.
One Trump's notable strengths is his ability to shorten the OODA loop. The story of his response to COVID-19 (or the China Doom virus if you like) is one of continuous adjustment to new information and feedback.
That is why he and America will come out of this stronger than ever
That is why he and America will come out of this stronger than ever
