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For the first time since the start of the uprising in Syria, there are shortages of bread in state bakeries areas that have always remained under regime control. I've confirmed with sources in Damascus city, Hama, Sweidaa.
Confirmed this now with a source in Deir Ezzor city in the section that always remained under regime control. The areas reconquered by the regime have been experiencing shortages for much longer.
Wheat is not under Western sanctions. The Assad regime is just broke. It recently issued a tender for purchase of wheat and couldn't find buyers for the price it offered.
http://bit.ly/3aO65IM
More on the unprecedented economic crisis in regime areas http://bit.ly/2T75GLg
http://bit.ly/3aO65IM
More on the unprecedented economic crisis in regime areas http://bit.ly/2T75GLg
The Assad regime knew full-well it would not be able to afford to provide its people with the cheapest source of calories - bread (hence issuing and re-issuing tenders for wheat), but still decided to relaunch the costly Idlib campaign. These are the regime's priorities.
A source just confirmed to me that the shortage of flour is affecting state bakeries providing subsidized bread in the area of Qardaha as well, the ancestral home of the Assad clan. This indicates the shortage is nation-wide & not due to local supply issues/corruption
Syria currently has one bid out for 200,000 tonnes of soft milling wheat. 4 recent bids for wheat failed because:
*Syria tried to get buyers to accept Euros instead of USD to bypass sanctions
*There's uncertainty about its ability to pay
*It likely offered too low of a price
*Syria tried to get buyers to accept Euros instead of USD to bypass sanctions
*There's uncertainty about its ability to pay
*It likely offered too low of a price
The regime urgently needs wheat & urgent purchases are more expensive than wheat futures. Based on past purchases, the 200,000 tones purchased in an urgent manner would cost Syria about $45-55 million. (analysis by @delfoo)
Syria needs roughly about 650,000 tonnes of wheat to get to the harvest season, which starts in June (FAO graphic). We're in March and the regime is struggling to buy even 200,000 tonnes. This is based on an annual consumption of 2.5 million tonnes of wheat.
Russia promised to provide Syria with a donation of 100,000 tonnes of wheat but has only delivered 30,000 tonnes ( https://b2b-sy.com/news/58203/ and https://b2b-sy.com/news/57669/ ). What Russia did rush to deliver? More armor and Russian troops https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-russia-idUSKBN20R2QP
Syrian gov official floats the idea of ending direct subsidies of bread or moving the distribution of bread to the smart card system (thus likely restricting quantity sold) as "solutions" to the bread crisis http://alwatan.sy/archives/235821 State bread costs SYP 50 ($0.05)
Acc to the official, the Syrian gov spends 1 billion SYP ($1 million) daily to support bakeries, which should instead be distributed to the poor. He claimed the bread subsidy doesn't make sense since it benefits all. But in reality, the middle class doesn't purchase state bread
The middle class & rich eat higher quality privately manufactured bread, known as "tourist bread," costing about SYP 450, $0.45. Those who can't afford it but don't want to wait in line for hours outside state bakeries can buy state bread without waiting in line for SYP 100-150.
Immense fears in regime-held Syria due to reports indicating a switch to selling subsidized bread through the Smart Card system, used for selling subsidized food & fuel. Unmarried Syrians & those whose marriages are unregistered (e.g. wed under rebel-control) don't have the Card
Those who married & had children under opposition control are often unable to register this & receive the "family notebook" needed for the Smart Card because such registration requires multiple bribes they can not afford. The children are essentially stateless.
Bakeries in Homs and Lattakia announced switching the distribution of subsidized bread through independent stalls to protect the public from #COVID due to long lines outside of bakeries. The independent stalls officially charge 70 lira ($0.06), but actual prices are around 200.
The bread is supposed to be distributed until 10 PM, but those who tried to find bread today at 7AM were told it ran out. People used to standing in line for hours outside of bakeries but paying 50 lira for subsidized bread today had to purchase regular bread for 500 ($0.4)
The absence of subsidized bread in Lattakia covers the countryside too, in towns that are entirely Alawi. The regime is not able to feed the community that sacrificed tens of thousands of its sons to keep Bashar in power.
Civilians stand in line for hours outside bread distribution points in Hama city today. Families of 6 members & below were limited to 1 bag of bread (2 kg) for which they paid 125 lira ($0.1). A family needs about 2 such bags per day since Syrians are eating mostly bread now.
The bread at the 2 large state ovens in Hama is cheaper (100 lira in Hama), but almost entirely unavailable. Today, a friend stood in line at 1 of the ovens w/ a man who walked 3 kms to get his family an additional bag of bread.
COVID can easily spread in these long tight lines
COVID can easily spread in these long tight lines
Today, a friend in a western suburb of Damascus paid 500 lira ($0.4) for a single bag of state bread, whose official price is 50 lira. Bread runs out early and many profiteers stand in line & resell it for 10 times the price as a source of revenue.
Syria will soon execute a deal reached in 2019 to supply 300K tonnes of wheat from Russia & then will rely on local harvest to get through the rest of 2020, since all calls for tenders launched in 2020 failed to attract bids that Syria can afford to pay https://aliqtisadi.com/1723565-%d9%81%d8%b4%d9%84-%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d9%85%d8%ad-%d8%a5%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%b3%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%a9/
The director of supplies for Damascus announced the regime will allow selling of "tourist bread" for up to SYP 550 ($0.4). This is better-tasting bread (about 500-450 grams per bag) that only the upper-middle class can afford. The price until late 2018 was SYP 250.
Residents of Kafr Sousseh neighborhood in Damascus steal bread from a car distributing bread today due to shortages. A friend in Damascus told me today "every day it's getting worse. It's become almost impossible to find bread.People are eating rice instead but it's so expensive"
Women line up for bread in Qudsiya, a western suburb of Damascus, today. Syrians wait in line for hours to be able to purchase subsidized bread - the cheapest source of calories.
Before the COVID curfew goes into force, markets are busy.
Before the COVID curfew goes into force, markets are busy.
The Damascus countryside governorate will begin selling subsidized bread through the Smart Card system, sharply reducing the number of eligible beneficiaries https://bit.ly/3dxBMrU
Many Syrians don't have the Smart Card as it required an official doc, "the family notebook," e.g. singles living on their own (such as students), people who married & had children under rebel rule & weren't able to afford the bribe to register this after regime takeover.
Those who now wish to register for a Smart Card can not do so - using the pretext of COVID, the company issuing the Smart Cards closed its offices 10 days ago https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1240065699722207233
This means more Syrians will not be able to afford bread & go hungry.
This means more Syrians will not be able to afford bread & go hungry.
Selling subsidized bread in al-Qazzaz, Damascus today.
The lines for bread are getting longer, prices
, many Syrians have not been able to secure bread in days & the quality of bread + its size 
. The regime is unable to secure the cheapest source of calories for its people
The lines for bread are getting longer, prices
, many Syrians have not been able to secure bread in days & the quality of bread + its size . The regime is unable to secure the cheapest source of calories for its people
The sale of subsidized bread in Tartous switched to the Smart Card system today, following the example of the Damascus countryside, thus reducing the number of eligible beneficiaries. Residents of villages around Tartous are reporting total absence of subsidized bread for days.
Only 3 days ago, a Syrian official was saying there is enough bread & that it will not be distributed through the Smart Card, due to widespread concern about such a move https://bit.ly/2USjzN0
Photos: line for bread in Tartous this week.
Small & low quality bread sold in Tartous
Photos: line for bread in Tartous this week.
Small & low quality bread sold in Tartous
A private seller of subsidized bread beats up women attempting to secure bread for their families in Sehnaya, on the outskirts of Damascus, today.
Many people in this area and across-regime held Syria have not been able to purchase bread in days due to shortages.
Many people in this area and across-regime held Syria have not been able to purchase bread in days due to shortages.
13 days ago, private sellers in Sehnaya were able to bring the bread into their shops & people queued. As people get more desperate & shortages get worse, expect more violence and haphazard distributions from cars.
(The portraits of the Assads are deeply symbolic in this photo)
(The portraits of the Assads are deeply symbolic in this photo)
Russia will donate 25,000 tonnes of wheat to Syria, which would least enough for one week. The implementation of a 2019 deal to supply 300,000 tonnes from Russia apparently failed https://www.eqtsad.net/news/article/29605/
Unprecedented anger among self-proclaimed Syrian regime supporters, as the gov't starts selling subsidized bread through the dysfunctional Smart Cart system in 3 provinces. A family of 4-7 members is supposed to receive 2 bundles of bread (about 2kg).
The area of the Damascus countryside was the first to move the selling of subsidized bread via the failed Smart Card, but the loudest complaints appear to be coming from Lattakia, home to communities more clearly aligned w/ the regime who feel the right to demand at least bread.
After a pro-regime Facebook page (Damascus Now) published that bread won't be sold through the Smart Card anymore, an official at the Ministry of Trade denied the rumor, adding that all governorates will soon be switched to the failed Smart Card system = more hungry Syrians.
Big trouble for the Assad regime: The SDF's autonomous admin announced raising the price it will pay to purchase wheat from farmers to 225,000 lira per tonne, matching the regime's price increase. 72% of the planted area of wheat in 2020 is in SDF areas https://www.facebook.com/smensyria/posts/1291885754334692
In 2019, SDF's price was 160K & regime's 185K-> some farmers in SDF areas sold to the regime, allowing it to buy about half of the 2019 harvest.
This means Damascus will have to rely even more on importing wheat, but because it prioritizes military spending, it can't afford it.
This means Damascus will have to rely even more on importing wheat, but because it prioritizes military spending, it can't afford it.
The Syrian gov't will be raising the price of subsidized bread by almost 30%. This comes after a previous decision to limit the number of bundles of bread each family can purchase. Severe shortages of bread continue to afflict regime-held areas https://www.eqtsad.net/news/article/29711/
Acc to pro-opposition outlet, the SDF's administration is charging the Syrian government a transport fee of 0.5 million lira ($415) for every truck moving wheat from a regime grain storage in Hassakeh toward areas under regime control further west https://bit.ly/2VIBqXw
The Syrian government is set to expand the use of the failed Smart Card system for the purchase of subsidized bread to Aleppo governorate. This will reduce the number of people eligible for the bread & thus cut costs https://www.eqtsad.net/news/article/29775/
