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COVID-19 carries a 4.6% death rate on average. The flue caries a .1% death rate. COVID-19 has infected 400-800 Americans. Last year the flu infected 35 million Americans. So, if COVID-19 infected the same amount of Americans as the flu, 1.6 million people would die.
And the reason it couldn’t infect 35 million people is.... what exactly?
I’m not trying to fear monger here, but let’s be sensible and stop with the “it’s not a big deal” nonsense.
Since this is making the rounds on twitter now.... yes... autocorrect did bite me on the second sentence of the original tweet. No, I didn't proofread. Yes, I do regret that.
New numbers are in. We're past 1,000 now. Down to 3% rate, but the slope on increased deaths is only slightly less than the slope on new cases. 3% was within my margin of errors. 3% of 35 million is 1.05 million. https://twitter.com/janjowen/status/1237593645504557057
If the slope was leveling off, we'd say the high death rate was the product of statistical noise. As it is, there is still likely SOME noise, but as more data emerges, the signal it masks is emerging.
Rates around the world:
South Korea: .3%, but new cases have leveled & deaths have not.
Italy: 6.2%, ratios are SCARY
Iran: 3.6%, ratio of new cases and deaths are about the same.
Spain: 2.1%, new to death ratio similar to Iran
France: 1.8, deaths leveling more than new cases.
South Korea: .3%, but new cases have leveled & deaths have not.
Italy: 6.2%, ratios are SCARY
Iran: 3.6%, ratio of new cases and deaths are about the same.
Spain: 2.1%, new to death ratio similar to Iran
France: 1.8, deaths leveling more than new cases.
Average of all these rates is 2.8%. So 3% in the US seems like about what we can expect. Maybe we'll trend toward South Korea and it will only be 3 times the death rate as the flu. But I think 3% or 30 times the rate is certainly on the table.
Pneumonia infected 1.3 million people last year (confirmed cases). 49,000 died. That’s a death rate of 3.7%. It’s a much smaller sample than the flu, and it is the disease I’ve heard COVID-19 compares the closest to considering the respiratory elements of both.
In the interest of accuracy, with thanks to @MurrayFullerton for pointing it out: https://mobile.twitter.com/jwmarianna/status/1237741532284882948
The theory that there are all of these mild cases that are undiagnosed so it isn’t really that bad takes a hit here: https://mobile.twitter.com/AlanLCross/status/1237820257902817280
