Ok, Steve Bullock has officially announced for Senate. He'll be taking on Steve Daines, the incumbent Republican senator. So, time for a little look at Bullock's electoral history. He was first elected statewide in 2008 as Attorney General. He defeated Tim Fox, who is the current

Attorney General of Montana. At the same time, Obama narrowly lost Montana in the presidential election. He outran Obama in almost every county. Montana has quite the propensity for ticket splitting. He had a lot more rural strength than did Obama.

In 2012, Bullock ran for governor. He ran against Rick Hill, the former Montana representative. He didn't win Rosebud or Yellowstone counties this time, but his strength in Gallatin, Lewis & Clark, and Missoula was enough. Meanwhile, Obama lost in the presidential race by 13.6%.

This time Bullock did outrun Obama by every county. He especially outran him in Lewis & Clark, Cascade, and Chouteau (where Jon Tester grew up). Bullock really had to outrun the top of the ticket to pull off this victory.

In 2016, as a popular incumbent, Bullock ran for reelection against Greg Gianforte, the current Montana representative. This was before Gianforte's body slamming incident. Bullock won a more decisive victory this time. Clinton lost the state in the presidential election by 21%.

So Bullock really, really had to outrun the top of the ticket. He heavily outran Clinton in the western half of the state. His weakest overperformances were in eastern rural counties, however. Compared to his 2012 victory, he heavily improved in the West, but not the East.

For example, he improved by 6% in Flathead County, a relatively large Republican county. He also improved by 10% in Gallatin (netting him about 5,800 votes) and 5% in Missoula (netting him roughly 3,500). Bullock is a very popular incumbent and the strongest possible Democratic

candidate. To beat Steve Daines, he will again have to outrun the top of the ticket. If Trump is carrying the state by 20%, it will be very difficult, though not impossible. If that number is closer to 10-12%, though, Bullock has a very good shot. @SenhorRaposa @JMilesColeman

@NilesGApol @EricC_2002 @_alex_joshua @brooks_caedmon @leuchtman @DFMresearch @xxxneonslavexxx @Polit_eurOpines @engele @kilometerbryman @papa_sharku @IRussell729 @PoliticalPassi1 @MatthewKolbIA @TQPurdon @GabeTheCentrist @kylechopkins @Uncrewed @OliverKeeneVa @RuralChrisLee

Thanks.