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Investing in RB vs. WR with your 1st round #dynasty rookie pick:
A Thread
Below you’ll find some info regarding the potential risks & rewards of investing an early rookie pick in an RB over a WR, and vice versa.
A ThreadBelow you’ll find some info regarding the potential risks & rewards of investing an early rookie pick in an RB over a WR, and vice versa.
If you invest a high rookie pick in an RB:
• The odds of getting immediate production are high.
• But if this RB busts in year 1, his value drops quickly.
• Rookie production is ALWAYS expected from a highly-drafted RB. If they disappoint early, value =
• The odds of getting immediate production are high.
• But if this RB busts in year 1, his value drops quickly.
• Rookie production is ALWAYS expected from a highly-drafted RB. If they disappoint early, value =
If you invest a high rookie pick in a WR:
• The odds of getting immediate production are low.
• But if this WR busts in year 1, he’ll maintain value heading into year 2.
• We, as #dynasty owners, tend to be more patient with WRs (and rightfully so)
• The odds of getting immediate production are low.
• But if this WR busts in year 1, he’ll maintain value heading into year 2.
• We, as #dynasty owners, tend to be more patient with WRs (and rightfully so)
Don’t believe me? Let’s check out an example:
David Montgomery: finished as RB24 in 2019 (a low-end RB2, not bad)
N’Keal Harry: finished as WR123 in 2019 (only played in 7 games, averaged 5.6 PPR points/game)
*Both players were drafted inside the top 4 in 2019 rookie drafts*
David Montgomery: finished as RB24 in 2019 (a low-end RB2, not bad)
N’Keal Harry: finished as WR123 in 2019 (only played in 7 games, averaged 5.6 PPR points/game)
*Both players were drafted inside the top 4 in 2019 rookie drafts*
Current #dynasty ranking for each player (aggregate data from 3 sites):
David Montgomery - #61 overall
N’Keal Harry - #78 overall
Less than a round & a half difference even with their rookie production being THAT drastically different! So what should we do about it?
David Montgomery - #61 overall
N’Keal Harry - #78 overall
Less than a round & a half difference even with their rookie production being THAT drastically different! So what should we do about it?
Main takeaways 
• BPA should always be the approach in rookie drafts. But if you’re deciding between players within the same tier:
- Contending teams should always favor the RB. The risk of the RB losing value is worth the immediate production you’re likely going to get.
• BPA should always be the approach in rookie drafts. But if you’re deciding between players within the same tier:
- Contending teams should always favor the RB. The risk of the RB losing value is worth the immediate production you’re likely going to get.
Main takeaways (cont.)
- Rebuilding teams need to prioritize their goals and determine the type of owner they are:
Risk-taker or risk-averse?
- Rebuilding teams need to prioritize their goals and determine the type of owner they are:
Risk-taker or risk-averse?
If you’re a RISK-TAKER:
You’re likely to focus on RB > WR in an attempt to speed up your rebuild. If you hit big on some early RBs, you’re probably an immediate playoff team! But if you miss big, you just set your team back a year or two due to the immediate loss of value.
You’re likely to focus on RB > WR in an attempt to speed up your rebuild. If you hit big on some early RBs, you’re probably an immediate playoff team! But if you miss big, you just set your team back a year or two due to the immediate loss of value.
If you’re RISK-AVERSE:
You’re probably tempted to focus on WR > RB early in your rookie drafts. You’re less likely to hit big, but you’re also practically eliminating the risk of your rookie investments losing value at a rapid pace.
You’re probably tempted to focus on WR > RB early in your rookie drafts. You’re less likely to hit big, but you’re also practically eliminating the risk of your rookie investments losing value at a rapid pace.
So in the end, here’s the main point
If you’re deciding between players in the same tier early in your rookie drafts, go with the RB. This sentence sums it all up:
The risk of an RB losing value is worth the immediate production/increase in value you’re likely going to get.
If you’re deciding between players in the same tier early in your rookie drafts, go with the RB. This sentence sums it all up:
The risk of an RB losing value is worth the immediate production/increase in value you’re likely going to get.
This thread was a bit longer than usual so I’m sorry about that, but I think it contains some solid info regarding the type of player you should target in round 1 of your rookie drafts depending on the type of #dynasty owner you are.
Hope you enjoyed it!
Hope you enjoyed it!
